Washington State will ban ICE cars by 2030

dbsb3233

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In his 2020 video (linked above), one of his themes is that so-called "experts" have been calling him insane and out-of-touch for over a decade now. And yet his predictions keep proving the "experts" wrong. The fact is, Tony Seba is an expert in the timing of technological disruption.

Calling him "fanboy ridiculous" doesn't phase him a bit - he's used to it. It just goes to show how out-of-touch the status quo "experts" are.
I don't care whether calling his ridiculous timeframe "fanboy ridiculous" phases him or not. I doubt he's reading my comments here, but if he is, fine. Because the timeline he predicted in the video I saw a year or two ago WAS utterly ridiculous.

Some of his comments in the video I saw made sense though, like how fully autonomous robotaxis will likely displace a huge share of personal car ownership in the future. If they get the price low enough, I wholly agree. It was his timeline that was ridiculous. I wish I knew which video I saw it in a year or two ago (he's got a crapload of them on YouTube), but it was something like 70% by 2023. It was laughable. He loves comparing cars to cell phones. As if most consumers are willing and able to replace their $50,000 cars as frequently as they replace their $500 cell phones. Ha. Total disconnect from reality on that one. And the few wealthier consumers that DO replace their new cars frequently simply sell them to someone else. The car doesn't get destroyed, it still stays on the road for it's lifetime (just with a different owner). It's still got a 10-15 year lifespan on the roads.
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JoeDimwit

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Tony Seba wrote the book Clean Disruption in 2014. Inside the book are a number of predictive charts and graphs about the cost and penetration of EV's, batteries, cost of computing power, etc..

Guess what? Over 7 years his predictions are basically spot-on. In fact, most of his predictions happened a little quicker than his "devoid of reality" predictions in his book.

Let that sink in.
“Basically”, or “literally”? Because there is a world of difference between the meaning based on those modifiers.
 

dbsb3233

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Oh, and one more point on the (faulty) cell phone analogy he loves so much... the main reason consumers were replacing their cell phones every 2 years was because they were tied to 24-month contracts with the carriers, and the bulk of the phone cost was imbedded in the monthly service fee. In other words, people were stuck paying for it that way, even past 24 months. So of course they were gonna switch to a newer phone at that point, when they were stuck paying for it anyway in their months fees.

That was the paradigm up until about the mid 2010's, when cell phone carriers finally started unbundling the cell service from the phone purchase. Once people started buying the phones separate from the cell service (allowing those monthly cell service bills to shrink accordingly), they started keeping their phones for 3,4,5 years rather than replacing them every 24 months. It was an artificial manipulator that created that rapid 24-month replacement cycle.
 

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“Basically”, or “literally”? Because there is a world of difference between the meaning based on those modifiers.
Nobody that has made as many predictions as specific as those made by Tony Seba is 100% correct with perfect precision, down to the year on every single call. Sometimes he's a year late (I already mentioned that). I used the word "basically" to mean most of the predictions that got him laughed out of the room back in 2014 have come true, and with a remarkable degree of accuracy.

I judge a predictors credibility by the level of accuracy displayed by their past predictions. Tony Seba has hit it out of the park.
 

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He loves comparing cars to cell phones. As if most consumers are willing and able to replace their $50,000 cars as frequently as they replace their $500 cell phones. Ha. Total disconnect from reality on that one. And the few wealthier consumers that DO replace their new cars frequently simply sell them to someone else.
Your objection is not valid because Tony was speaking to the number of absolute wireless subscribers at any one time, not the number of phones sold.

He also recognizes that corded phones have a different adoption curve than wireless phones and wireless phones have a different adoption curve from EV's (even though new EV's are essentially computers on wheels). He is an expert on all types of technological disruption and the factors that affect the speed of adoption of different technologies.

His presentations contain a chart that maps technological disruptions starting around 1860, I believe. Horses to cars, indoor plumbing, electrical service, toilets, refrigerators, TV, etc. Adoption happens due to falling cost curves of a new technology. Volume of production has a synergistic affect with regard to falling costs that cause the "sweet spot" of price/function ratio to be hit. We are at that point now with EV's. The adoption of EV's will greatly accelerate over the next 5 years and this is born out by the billions of dollars being invested in battery and EV production facilities.

Tony Seba is far from a crackpot as evidenced by the accuracy of his predictions of solar, batteries and EV's in terms of price cost curves and adoption rates. This at a time when the traditional analysts were predicting numbers lower by a factor of TEN!
 


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Read his early books or watch one of his early presentations. Almost all of his price cost curves and rate and timing of adoptions have been extremely accurate. He doesn't do it by luck or by guessing, he does it by studying and understanding the mechanisms behind adoption curves.
 

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The current number is 2% electric sales. And it has risen from near zero. Are you saying it will suddenly stop rising?

If so, you will be wrong. I guarantee it.
 

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It is to provide timelines for infrastructure investments in Washington State.
Now we can allocate infrastructure toward EV charging points, home and apartment grid updates, gas stations, road use taxes.
Yes, the EV revolution is likely coming. However there is large debate (see previous 40 pages) about the scope of that revolution and its specific timeline. The Washington legislature has taken all those arguments and said "Hey all, no more wishy washy prediction arguments. There will be no new ICE cars after 2030. This is where we are going. Go invest."
 

dbsb3233

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His presentations contain a chart that maps technological disruptions starting around 1860, I believe. Horses to cars, indoor plumbing, electrical service, toilets, refrigerators, TV, etc. Adoption happens due to falling cost curves of a new technology.
Guess what every one of those things have in common?... Huge quantum leaps in functionality for the consumer.

EVs (relative to ICE) don't. They're still just cars that drive the same, and haul the same (actually less until batteries get good enough to power bigger vehicles). There's some pros and some cons in the refueling (home refueling is a plus, public refueling is a minus), but that's roughly a wash. As far as most consumers are concerned, EVs really don't do more for them than the alternative they're coming from. Unlike all those other things you listed.

Without that natural incentive from a quantum leap in functionality, the transition will take much longer. "Being green" is of minor interest to most consumers. But indoor plumbing (vs going to the river)... toilets (vs the outhouse)... TVs (vs singing around the fireplace)... you betcha!
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