What do you think the used MME market will be like?

[Gitboxdre]

As excited as I am about owning a Mach E, we are a strictly committed "one debt at a time" family, so I'm looking at probably 12-18 months before my wife's Expedition is paid off. We are also usually a "never buy cars brand new" family, but the tax incentives ($10k total for me in Louisiana) when buying new really change the equation for me.

I expect that by the time I'm ready to purchase, Ford's tax credits will still be intact. But that leaves me curious about what the market will be like for used MMEs. Should we expect to see more significant depreciation on used models for the first few years while the tax credits are still available? In other words, will I be expected to pay, let's say, $40k for a used '21 RWD Premium in a year and a half, when the tax credits bring my total price on a new one down to more like $37k? Do tax credits artificial depress the used market?

I also suspect that, at least in my area, the next year or two will bring a healthy inventory of MMEs to the used market. I think there are a lot of people who are excited to buy this vehicle, but will find out in short order that their lifestyle isn't suited to driving an electric vehicle and will trade in to go back to an ICE vehicle. I could turn out to be wrong about that though.

Really curious about everyone's thoughts on this, especially those who have been EV owners for a while. This is new for me.

Side note: one of my local dealers posted their showroom model that they just received this week, it's the first one I've seen in my area (hoping to check it out in person next week). Nowhere in the description do they mention that it's electric. Wonder if it's because our economy is heavily weighted to the oil industry here and they're worried about blowback. We live in interesting times.

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[Marcel]

As excited as I am about owning a Mach E, we are a strictly committed "one debt at a time" family, so I'm looking at probably 12-18 months before my wife's Expedition is paid off. We are also usually a "never buy cars brand new" family, but the tax incentives ($10k total for me in Louisiana) when buying new really change the equation for me.

I expect that by the time I'm ready to purchase, Ford's tax credits will still be intact. But that leaves me curious about what the market will be like for used MMEs. Should we expect to see more significant depreciation on used models for the first few years while the tax credits are still available? In other words, will I be expected to pay, let's say, $40k for a used '21 RWD Premium in a year and a half, when the tax credits bring my total price on a new one down to more like $37k? Do tax credits artificial depress the used market?

I also suspect that, at least in my area, the next year or two will bring a healthy inventory of MMEs to the used market. I think there are a lot of people who are excited to buy this vehicle, but will find out in short order that their lifestyle isn't suited to driving an electric vehicle and will trade in to go back to an ICE vehicle. I could turn out to be wrong about that though.

Really curious about everyone's thoughts on this, especially those who have been EV owners for a while. This is new for me.

Side note: one of my local dealers posted their showroom model that they just received this week, it's the first one I've seen in my area (hoping to check it out in person next week). Nowhere in the description do they mention that it's electric. Wonder if it's because our economy is heavily weighted to the oil industry here and they're worried about blowback. We live in interesting times.

Take lease prices to compare, they should give you an indication.

Or wait until i have found my glass ball...

 

[silverelan]

I think a lot of people have had the same questions. It's anybody's guess right?

The Tesla Model 3/Y have held up reasonably well on the resale market, part of that is because Tesla props up the price on their used cars by including FSD.

The Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-PACE have taken big hits right off the bat. You can get a 2019 Jag or e-tron with an MSRP of $80k for $50k on the used market. Both mfgs offer big discounts on the car at the dealer via sweet rebates on top of dealer markdowns.

Bolt EV too can be had for a steal with used prices between $13-15k for a car that initially sold for MSRP near $40k and even now is discounted to $25k.

I think it's pretty safe to say that you'll see a $7,500 depreciation hit immediately. How it goes from there is what I struggle with. There is a normal depreciation schedule and Ford publishes that with their options / lease program. Additionally, part of it too is dependent on what improvements Ford makes to the car in the next 2-3 years.

My advice? Get the car you want and be happy with both it and the price you paid. If you have any other expectations, prepare to be disappointed.

 

[ARK]

My bet is that the standard range models will depreciate more - I’m not sure Ford’s residuals fully account for this on the lease or Options program.

 

[agoldman]

I think it is way too early to tell. This time next year may be settled into whatever niche this vechicle sits in, but 2022 will be flooded with new EV models trying to chase Tesla.

 

[DBC]

The credits just reduce the initial selling price. IOW if buyers can get $10K in credits/rebates then the fair market value of the new vehicle is Selling Price - Credits.

Depreciation just comes off that. Consequently if the MME depreciates 20% in the first year, and the price is $50K with $10K credits, the FMV when you drive it off the lot is $40K and the FMV in a year will be $32K.

Adjust up or down for how good it is. Remains to be seen but the driving experience is exceptional.

The more interesting question is what happens if the credits are brought back, which has a high probability of happening. What Ford does likely depends on what Tesla does. I'd think Tesla would raise prices but hard to be sure.

 

[Orangefirefish]

The credits just reduce the initial selling price. IOW if buyers can get $10K in credits/rebates then the fair market value of the new vehicle is Selling Price - Credits.

Depreciation just comes off that. Consequently if the MME depreciates 20% in the first year, and the price is $50K with $10K credits, the FMV when you drive it off the lot is $40K and the FMV in a year will be $32K.

Adjust up or down for how good it is. Remains to be seen but the driving experience is exceptional.

The more interesting question is what happens if the credits are brought back, which has a high probability of happening. What Ford does likely depends on what Tesla does. I'd think Tesla would raise prices but hard to be sure.

Good points. I think Tesla will raise price too if that were to happen... Which would be the best argument as to why tax credits aren’t worth a darn to the consumer. That credit would fall right into the hands of the manufacturer. It’s supposed to spur auto manufacturers to adopt EV manufacturing... but then again the world’s largest market cap automaker doesn’t need help... or does it ...?

 

[JimmyL]

As excited as I am about owning a Mach E, we are a strictly committed "one debt at a time" family, so I'm looking at probably 12-18 months before my wife's Expedition is paid off. We are also usually a "never buy cars brand new" family, but the tax incentives ($10k total for me in Louisiana) when buying new really change the equation for me.

I expect that by the time I'm ready to purchase, Ford's tax credits will still be intact. But that leaves me curious about what the market will be like for used MMEs. Should we expect to see more significant depreciation on used models for the first few years while the tax credits are still available? In other words, will I be expected to pay, let's say, $40k for a used '21 RWD Premium in a year and a half, when the tax credits bring my total price on a new one down to more like $37k? Do tax credits artificial depress the used market?

I also suspect that, at least in my area, the next year or two will bring a healthy inventory of MMEs to the used market. I think there are a lot of people who are excited to buy this vehicle, but will find out in short order that their lifestyle isn't suited to driving an electric vehicle and will trade in to go back to an ICE vehicle. I could turn out to be wrong about that though.

Really curious about everyone's thoughts on this, especially those who have been EV owners for a while. This is new for me.

Side note: one of my local dealers posted their showroom model that they just received this week, it's the first one I've seen in my area (hoping to check it out in person next week). Nowhere in the description do they mention that it's electric. Wonder if it's because our economy is heavily weighted to the oil industry here and they're worried about blowback. We live in interesting times.

With the influx of new BEV's coming in '22 there will be many more to choose from. How will it effect Ford? . No clue. But, my gut says MME will be discounted more than a Tesla. Tesla is years ahead in battery and software development to squeeze every droplet of juice from its batteries with while improving RANGE. Give me a MME Premium AWD ER with Tesla's undercarriage and battery packs and I am good to go.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

With the influx of new BEV's coming in '22 there will be many more to choose from. How will it effect Ford? . No clue. But, my gut says MME will be discounted more than a Tesla. Tesla is years ahead in battery and software development to squeeze every droplet of juice from its batteries with while improving RANGE. Give me a MME Premium AWD ER with Tesla's undercarriage and battery packs and I am good to go.

Tesla's much-vaunted efficiency is not exactly what it's cracked up to be.

 

[JimmyL]

Tesla's much-vaunted efficiency is not exactly what it's cracked up to be.

You know it and we all know Tesla exaggerates range. But, the perception that they are state of the art BEVs will keep them on top . . poor fit and finish and all.

 

[LagerHead]

You know it and we all know Tesla exaggerates range. But, the perception that they are state of the art BEVs will keep them on top . . poor fit and finish and all.

Realistically speaking, Tesla's "poor fit and finish" isn't all it's cracked up to be. The $TSLAQ crowd over-hyped every little minor issue to the hilt. Just like they did with any crash or fire. Because they were losing money hand over fist with their short positions. An auto manufacturer has never been under so much scrutiny as Tesla was put under. Yes, Tesla had more than typical panel gap variation and minor paint imperfections - no, it wasn't the disaster it was hyped to be.

 

[Gitboxdre]

Realistically speaking, Tesla's "poor fit and finish" isn't all it's cracked up to be. The $TSLAQ crowd over-hyped every little minor issue to the hilt. Just like they did with any crash or fire. Because they were losing money hand over fist with their short positions. An auto manufacturer has never been under so much scrutiny as Tesla was put under. Yes, Tesla had more than typical panel gap variation and minor paint imperfections - no, it wasn't the disaster it was hyped to be.

And the Model Y roof panel that came loose on the highway?

 

[LagerHead]

And the Model Y roof panel that came loose on the highway?

It was either a production mistake or a $TSLAQ negative publicity stunt. Either way it's not representative of the cars. I wouldn't focus on a sample of one

 

[LagerHead]

I don't see it like that. It assumes the competition of the Mach-e is other electric cars. But most EV buyers are replacing gas cars. Since an EV serves almost all of the same purposes as a gas car, the competition is the entire universe of cars in the same size and price range. This is true whether the EV is new or used.

It's true that some people will only buy an ICE vehicle due to personal biases (or very special needs) and that some people will only by an EV, we can safely ignore that. But more importantly, some people will only buy a used car because they want someone else to take the depreciation.

So, I suspect there will be a strong market for used Mach-e's in coming years, especially if they continue to maintain their reputation as a good and reliable car. The truth of the matter is that an affordable EV, new or used, is an EV that will sell easily. The manufacturer's of EV's with good reputations are increasing annual production as quickly as possible each and every year yet they still can't make enough to satisfy worldwide demand.

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