What is the Mach E's closest competitor?

[Blue highway]

Something you may not think about till your next road trip...

For me the alternative would be a Model Y.... Not so much because of the car, but because of public charging. Teslas can use CCS adapters to fast charge as well as the Super Charger network.

In the next couple of years, DCFC will fall way behind growth in EVs. A Tesla able to use both charging networks is attractive.

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[jlauro]

And yet BEV's are growing at a faster rate than plug in hybrids.


From Clean Technica, year over year in the first half of 2022:

• Full battery electrics: +75%
• Plugin hybrids: +37%
• Mild hybrids: -7%
• Full hybrids: +14%
• Pure fossil-powered vehicles: -16%

That's because there are not many good PHEVs. They all have one or more of the following issues:

• Too expensive, might as well get a BEV
• Too short of an all electric range
• Too boring / slow (ie: prius)
• Only a compliance vehicle, such as only sold in CARB states, or extremely limited supply outside of CARB states (ie: Rav4 prime, and several other CARB only vehicles).

 

[RagingDork]

That's because there are not many good PHEVs. They all have one or more of the following issues:

• Too expensive, might as well get a BEV
• Too short of an all electric range
• Too boring / slow (ie: prius)
• Only a compliance vehicle, such as only sold in CARB states, or extremely limited supply outside of CARB states (ie: Rav4 prime, and several other CARB only vehicles).

Good luck getting a Rav 4 Prime even in a carb state. Dealers are saying 3 years. Think that’s code for “f off”.

 

[IgorKl]

Direct competitors:
1. Model Y - especially after Jan 1.
2. VW id.4, Ioniq 5, Ev6 and F. Ocean

I put #2 in the same row since they are loosing in cargo space. Also, I'm not familiar with VW software, but the rest definitely cannot compete with MME BC right now.

Model Y Long Range is very competitive even without software updates, and as was noted before it has clear advantages in charging and software experience.

 

[Mach1E]

And yet BEV's are growing at a faster rate than plug in hybrids.


From Clean Technica, year over year in the first half of 2022:

• Full battery electrics: +75%
• Plugin hybrids: +37%
• Mild hybrids: -7%
• Full hybrids: +14%
• Pure fossil-powered vehicles: -16%

“Fun” with statistics.

Growth “rate” vs growth “numbers.”

It’s easier to have a higher growth rate when starting with a smaller absolute number.

That said, the above is a result of government mandates and incentives.

That’s why I said they “should” focus on PHEVs.

They’re cheaper.

We don’t need extra infrastructure for them.

They solve the long trip and evacuation issues.

They use less resources (battery materials).

And they’re arguably “as good if not better” for the environment.

 

[Mach1E]

An infrequently run ICE engine just seems like a recipe for lots of maintenance headaches to me. If I had one I would either want to make sure I never use the ICE engine (treat it like a very limited range EV), or make sure the ICE engine gets a good workout at least once a week (run for 20+ minutes to get up to operating temp). Either situation seems less than ideal to me. BEV all the way!

Is this just a feeling you have or is there any data to back this up?

Seems they’re designed to be run this way.

 

[Mach1E]

Good luck getting a Rav 4 Prime even in a carb state. Dealers are saying 3 years. Think that’s code for “f off”.

3 years???

Seems like it’s the vehicle people want!

Does any other in production car have that long of a wait? (Excluding Tesla and Fisker vapor ware models of course).

 

[sotek2345]

Is this just a feeling you have or is there any data to back this up?

Seems they’re designed to be run this way.

No hard data off of PHEVs, just lots of experience maintaining ICE engines, including infrequently driven ones (i.e. when I used to own a ICE mustang and parked it all winter). If you don't get your engine up to operating temperature regularly, you will get a lot of excess water in your oil, meaning you need more frequent changes with higher quality (ideally full synthetic) oil. It also isn't great for rings and seals. Hoses will dry rot more, and you also have the issue of rodents nesting in the engine and chewing on all of the wiring unless you heat it up to drive them off regularly. Carbon build up, especially on valves in direct injection engines, is also an issue if you don't reach temperatures to burn it off.

Running below temp (i.e. brief start ups of the ICE engine in a PHEV) will cause excess wear to the moving parts of the engine as well because they are running cold and more frequently without lubrication (waiting for the oil to pump).

You also have the issue of gas going bad. "Modern" gas with mandated ethanol doesn't last that long before it starts taking on water and dropping the octane rating. You want to go through the tank about every 6 to 8 weeks to be safe, or use fuel stabilizer to extended it.

 

[Blue highway]

“Fun” with statistics.

Growth “rate” vs growth “numbers.”

It’s easier to have a higher growth rate when starting with a smaller absolute number.

That said, the above is a result of government mandates and incentives.

That’s why I said they “should” focus on PHEVs.

They’re cheaper.

We don’t need extra infrastructure for them.

They solve the long trip and evacuation issues.

They use less resources (battery materials).

And they’re arguably “as good if not better” for the environment.

In terms of growth rate vs growth numbers... There are more BEV's than Plug in Hybrids in the US.


721K Plug in hybrids in the US in 2021.
https://www.statista.com/statistics...around 721,100 plug,the United States in 2021.


1.4M BEVs in the US in 2021
https://electrek.co/2022/08/24/current-ev-registrations-in-the-us-how-does-your-state-stack-up/

 

[cdiv]

No hard data off of PHEVs, just lots of experience maintaining ICE engines [...]

Well... no experience maintaining ICE engines, but I owned a Chevy Volt, and they've answered at least some of the issues you bring up.

If you don't get your engine up to operating temperature regularly, you will get a lot of excess water in your oil, meaning you need more frequent changes with higher quality (ideally full synthetic) oil.

The Volt will run the engine through a maintenance cycle which brings it up to operating temperature once a month if the engine hasn't been used.

You also have the issue of gas going bad. "Modern" gas with mandated ethanol doesn't last that long before it starts taking on water and dropping the octane rating. You want to go through the tank about every 6 to 8 weeks to be safe, or use fuel stabilizer to extended it.

The gas tank is kept pressurized which helps prevent evaporation and air/water ingress. Also, if the average age of the fuel in the tank is over a year the car will run the engine until the average age drops (so, until you add fresh fuel).

I don't know if other PHEVs do similar things, but it seems to work for the Volt... I've never heard of any issues caused by year old gas in the Volt.

 

[sotek2345]

Well... no experience maintaining ICE engines, but I owned a Chevy Volt, and they've answered at least some of the issues you bring up.

The Volt will run the engine through a maintenance cycle which brings it up to operating temperature once a month if the engine hasn't been used.

The gas tank is kept pressurized which helps prevent evaporation and air/water ingress. Also, if the average age of the fuel in the tank is over a year the car will run the engine until the average age drops (so, until you add fresh fuel).

I don't know if other PHEVs do similar things, but it seems to work for the Volt... I've never heard of any issues caused by year old gas in the Volt.

Those would both be good and useful improvements for PHEVs. I would guess the tiny engine in the Volt came up to speed pretty quick too, which helps. My Mustangs took 15-20 minutes of hard driving to get up to full temp which burned 2-3 gallons of fuel.

 

[Mirak]

Pivoting slightly, but what would you all consider the closest ICE competitor to the Mach E?

Wanted to do a fuel cost savings exercise, and this would help big time. Thank you

...so back to this guy's question. The Rav4 Prime is way too rare to consider, and it isn't an ICE competitor anyway. The difficulty with performing a gas savings exercise is that there is no "apples-to-apples" ICE equivalent to a Mach E. I am not aware of any ICE CUV anywhere close to this price point that has anything close to Mach E's tech (15" screen, BlueCruise, etc.)

But what would be the closest widely available and comparably-sized ICE CUV? A Toyota Rav4 (ICE) or Ford Edge at top trim level?

 

[generaltso]

That's because there are not many good PHEVs. They all have one or more of the following issues:

• Too expensive, might as well get a BEV
• Too short of an all electric range
• Too boring / slow (ie: prius)
• Only a compliance vehicle, such as only sold in CARB states, or extremely limited supply outside of CARB states (ie: Rav4 prime, and several other CARB only vehicles).

I can only report on my own experience, but this is what I've found with the items on your list:

• PHEVs are more expensive than their pure ICE counterparts. The tax credit helped bring the price down, but that's not available anymore for several PHEVs. "Might as well get a BEV" kinda implies that a lower price is the only reason to get a PHEV over a BEV, which wasn't the reason for me.
• The RAV4 Prime is rated for 42 miles of electric range. We get about that in the winter and over 50 in the summer. That's more than enough range for our use case.
• The RAV4 Prime is not slow. It has more horsepower than my Mach-E.
• Yes, PHEVs have limited supply. But so do BEVs. I waited a lot longer for the Mach-E than I did for the RAV4 Prime.

 

[4sallypat]

Back to the original post:

VINFAST is a serious competitor to both dealer model franchises and Tesla's direct sales.

Love their strong CA presence - 6 stores open - 3 more slated.

Great pricing with a battery you own or a battery you lease.

No more options to buy - it's all inclusive.

Manufacturing moving to North Carolina.
Batteries sourced from Samsung.

 

[Hersh]

...so back to this guy's question. The Rav4 Prime is way too rare to consider, and it isn't an ICE competitor anyway. The difficulty with performing a gas savings exercise is that there is no "apples-to-apples" ICE equivalent to a Mach E. I am not aware of any ICE CUV anywhere close to this price point that has anything close to Mach E's tech (15" screen, BlueCruise, etc.)

But what would be the closest widely available and comparably-sized ICE CUV? A Toyota Rav4 (ICE) or Ford Edge at top trim level?

Thanks! And very well put. This is what I was getting at

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