Will 2021 EVs have similar value as NonEVs in 2031 used market?

Regularmache

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Will 2021 EVs have similar value as NonEVs in 2031 or will they be as useless as a 10 year old Battery power tools because of obsolescence?
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I've replaced batteries on power tools. Won't be anywhere as simple on a BEV, but a professional mechanic with the right training and tools can do it.

Hopefully those costs come down with time.

Meanwhile, will ICE cars be worth substantially less in 2031 due to fuel costs at that time? Very difficult to predict that far out, especially on a resource that is highly impacted by regulations and cartels, and which is damaging the planet.
 
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Regularmache

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We happen to keep our vehicles for a long time, 12-15 years and sold/ gifted to family and wonder if we'll be able to do the same with the MachE? Will Ford have a new Battery to purchase for legacy vehicles?
 

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We happen to keep our vehicles for a long time, 12-15 years and sold/ gifted to family and wonder if we'll be able to do the same with the MachE? Will Ford have a new Battery to purchase for legacy vehicles?
I would hope so, or at a minimum it should be possible to find a 3rd party that will sell/refurbish battery packs with new cells. That said, by 15 years, body tends to become more of an issue (at least in northern states), and hoping it will still get 50% range without replacing... (ok, that might be optimistic)
 

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I've replaced batteries on power tools. Won't be anywhere as simple on a BEV, but a professional mechanic with the right training and tools can do it.

Hopefully those costs come down with time.

Meanwhile, will ICE cars be worth substantially less in 2031 due to fuel costs at that time? Very difficult to predict that far out, especially on a resource that is highly impacted by regulations and cartels, and which is damaging the planet.
...and a commodity which is very finite.
 


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Will 2021 EVs have similar value as NonEVs in 2031 or will they be as useless as a 10 year old Battery power tools because of obsolescence?
Battery packs are lasting much longer than originally thought, thus Ford willing to provide an 8-year warranty. We bought a 2011 Prius and the battery is still going strong. We gave the car to our daughter when we both the Leaf.

Remember that the cost of gas is going to be going up substantially as we move away from fossil fuels. There may also be special pollution taxes added to ICE vehicles by then.
 

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Battery packs are lasting much longer than originally thought, thus Ford willing to provide an 8-year warranty. We bought a 2011 Prius and the battery is still going strong. We gave the car to our daughter when we both the Leaf.

Remember that the cost of gas is going to be going up substantially as we move away from fossil fuels. There may also be special pollution taxes added to ICE vehicles by then.
I hate to predict long term fossil fuel prices... As demand goes down, prices may too... (assuming still enough demand for economies of scale).

I wish cell phone batteries would last longer, or at least be easier to replace.
 

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There is absolutely no way to answer that question with any reasonable level of correctness, and no argument presented will be correct. Battery shortages could stifle the new EV market, government regulations and subsidies could massively change the markets, unforeseen breakthroughs in either battery technology OR competing technologies (such as green hydrogen) could completely alter the landscape for used BEVs, or one of a hundred other factors could change the complexion of the used market in 2031.

You might as well ask which stock will gain the most value in 11 years, keeping in mind that in 2009 absolutely NO ONE would have said "Tesla".
 
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Battery packs are lasting much longer than originally thought, thus Ford willing to provide an 8-year warranty. We bought a 2011 Prius and the battery is still going strong. We gave the car to our daughter when we both the Leaf.

Remember that the cost of gas is going to be going up substantially as we move away from fossil fuels. There may also be special pollution taxes added to ICE vehicles by then.
We just have to hope Ford produces hundreds of thousands of MachE type batteries over the years or risk having a "Limited Battery type" problem. I know Toyota offers "new" Batteries for the Prius as there are a whole lot of them on the road and sold worldwide.
 

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Remember that the cost of gas is going to be going up substantially as we move away from fossil fuels
I wouldn't be so sure about that. As demand decreases, and we have all this supply, the price will stay low.

Eventually supply will slow down in reaction. But a 15-year period of low oil prices is not unusual. We had one from 1986-2000.
 

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We happen to keep our vehicles for a long time, 12-15 years and sold/ gifted to family and wonder if we'll be able to do the same with the MachE? Will Ford have a new Battery to purchase for legacy vehicles?
Very difficult to predict what happens in ten years - We have to assume that it will be cheaper than now to replace batteries unless entirely new battery technologies are in use in 2031 and current batteries are banned or obsolete and not available. Value in 10 years also depends on what is in vogue 10 years from now. If standard battery ranges for example are 600 miles in 10 years, the value of a 300 mile range BEV will for sure be less in my opinion.
 

dbsb3233

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I would expect pretty serious degradation of resale value year by year as BEVs and batteries continue to improve rapidly this decade. I wouldn't buy one if holding resale value is a big requirement in your criteria.

But having said that, the vehicle should always be great for around-home use, even if the battery eventually degrades 30%. Range is important, but it's not everything. For instance, there are some people that will be buying the SR battery rather than the ER battery even today, to save the $5000, and because the SR still makes the vehicle plenty usable for around-home use. Today's ER will be similar in a few years -- still useful, but at a significantly discounted price relative to newer vehicles with 400+ mile range.
 

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I would expect pretty serious degradation of resale value year by year as BEVs and batteries continue to improve rapidly this decade. I wouldn't buy one if holding resale value is a big requirement in your criteria.

But having said that, the vehicle should always be great for around-home use, even if the battery eventually degrades 30%. Range is important, but it's not everything. For instance, there are some people that will be buying the SR battery rather than the ER battery even today, to save the $5000, and because the SR still makes the vehicle plenty usable for around-home use. Today's ER will be similar in a few years -- still useful, but at a significantly discounted price relative to newer vehicles with 400+ mile range.
There is already quite an active market for even the older short-range'd EVs. Granted their prices are pretty low these days which makes for the active market LOL.

People can pick up a used Leaf (or even Focus Electric) for pretty cheap just to see if "an EV is right for me".
 

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I wouldn't be so sure about that. As demand decreases, and we have all this supply, the price will stay low.

Eventually supply will slow down in reaction. But a 15-year period of low oil prices is not unusual. We had one from 1986-2000.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. Policy changes to address climate change will undoubtedly include a tailpipe carbon tax/cap&trade system similar to the EU. If done intelligently, lawmakers can prevent this from being regressive. Such policies will result in increased gas costs independent of supply and demand. Both carrots and stick will be required to address climate change. Cost of fossil fuels will be one of those.
 

dbsb3233

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Sorry, I wasn't clear. Policy changes to address climate change will undoubtedly include a tailpipe carbon tax/cap&trade system similar to the EU. If done intelligently, lawmakers can prevent this from being regressive. Such policies will result in increased gas costs independent of supply and demand. Both carrots and stick will be required to address climate change. Cost of fossil fuels will be one of those.
Well, we'll see. Best we don't fly too close to that flame in here though as it can get political. ?
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