Will 2021 EVs have similar value as NonEVs in 2031 used market?

[jlauro]

Gasoline is fairly energy dense (almost 100x lithium ion battery) and quicker to pump than the chemical reactions needed in charging batteries, and it is possible to make a carbon-neutral fuel by capturing carbon dioxide from the air and turn it into synthetic gasoline. (see https://theweek.com/articles/789404/may-soon-able-make-gasoline-from-thin-air ). That's not economical, and I seriously doubt it will be, especially at scale in 10 years, but I wouldn't assume significantly rising fuel prices. Pure electric makes sense to me, but not the only option.

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[Raymondjram]

The value of a used EV is relative and tends to be subjective to the buyers. One can sell their used EV at the original factory price any time after it was originally bought. And someone will pay for it. So when your EV gets "old" and you wnat to sell it, you don't have to accept the assumed market value. You can sell for more than what it cost you, too, especially for the Frst Edition Mach-E which will be a collector car. You decide how much you want to sell it for.

My past cars were driven between ten and twenty six years before selling, so if I sell it for just $100, I fully enjoyed it from new. But if I can sell it for several thousands, I am making money! And if it was a real classic, I can ask for half a million! You as a seller determine what value you want to sell it for.

 

[Raymondjram]

Gasoline is fairly energy dense (almost 100x lithium ion battery) and quicker to pump than the chemical reactions needed in charging batteries, and it is possible to make a carbon-neutral fuel by capturing carbon dioxide from the air and turn it into synthetic gasoline. (see https://theweek.com/articles/789404/may-soon-able-make-gasoline-from-thin-air ). That's not economical, and I seriously doubt it will be, especially at scale in 10 years, but I wouldn't assume significantly rising fuel prices. Pure electric makes sense to me, but not the only option.

You are missing EV owners who have a photoelectric power system in their homes, which can charge their EV for pennies per charge. They are the one who can "refuel" cheaper than any fossil or synthetic fuel source. Only hydrogen generated from renewable sources can eventually compete against EVs with faster refueling while remaining clean.

 

[ChasingCoral]

You are missing EV owners who have a photoelectric power system in their homes, which can charge their EV for pennies per charge. They are the one who can "refuel" cheaper than any fossil or synthetic fuel source. Only hydrogen generated from renewable sources can eventually compete against EVs with faster refueling while remaining clean.

And barns are great structures for mounting big solar panel arrays.

 

[dbsb3233]

You are missing EV owners who have a photoelectric power system in their homes, which can charge their EV for pennies per charge.

Well, depending on how you account for the $10's of thousands that system likely cost to buy/install and how you allocate the payback. Can't ignore that part.

 

[slawwach]

...and a commodity which is very finite.

Definitely finite, though known oil reserves are actually going up for the last 40 years. We keep finding oil to extract at faster pace than using it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Reserves_Top_5_Countries.png

 

[ChasingCoral]

Definitely finite, though known oil reserves are actually going up for the last 40 years. We keep finding oil to extract at faster pace than using it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Reserves_Top_5_Countries.png

Yes but the new oil reserves are mostly in places that make it more dangerous and costly to extract.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

And barns are great structures for mounting big solar panel arrays.

We haven't built the barn yet. The solar arrays are on the main house roof, all 36 of them. There are 3 inverters and 2 Blue Ion Batteries in the garage next to the MME's future parking bay.

In our case, the fuel for the MME will be mostly free. That was part of the intent as well, our desire to have a vehicle that could run in the aftermath of a direct hurricane hit knocking out the grid and power to much of the island (Thus avoiding the gas station lines).

 

[dbsb3233]

Definitely finite, though known oil reserves are actually going up for the last 40 years. We keep finding oil to extract at faster pace than using it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Reserves_Top_5_Countries.png

Yep. And with the gradual shift toward electrification of road vehicles that will take place this decade, I think 2019 will probably prove to have been the peak year for worldwide oil consumption. The old "Peak Oil" fear (i.e. supply running out) will never happen, IMO. The peak will occur simply because demand dropped due to batteries finally advancing enough to replace a major share of ICE vehicles by the end of the decade.

Having said that, it will be a gradual shift taking many decades. For instance, look at the Mach-e vs the Bronco. There were probably around 40k-50k reservations for the Mach-e (over 8 months). The new (ICE) Bronco... 150,000 in 2 weeks.

 

[silverelan]

There's always going to be a market for a electric vehicle that does 200+ mi EPA range and has DC fast charging capabilities which means there's a floor to the prices.

Given the longevity/reliability of electric vehicles of 10+ years, I think we will see the MME and other comparable EVs be worth more than their fossil contemporaries.

In 2010, the BMW X5 sold for about $50,000 and now goes for between $13,000 to $15,000. My guess is that the MME will be more desirable than a 10yr old BMW X5 in 2031. The maintenance costs alone on a 10yr old BMW are prohibitive.

 

[abr]

Well, depending on how you account for the $10's of thousands that system likely cost to buy/install and how you allocate the payback. Can't ignore that part.

My solar system installed last year with 20 panels, inverter and included Level 2 charger cost $13k (after federal credit) and has enough power to cover all of my current electric needs, my wife's PHEV and hopefully a good chunk of my MME BEV needs. Payback for all costs will be around 6-7 years, even before adding the MME. Solar install prices have come down considerably over the years. Don't assume it is too expensive. I enjoy not paying for electricity at all and I look forward to not paying for gasoline either.

 

[dbsb3233]

My solar system installed last year with 20 panels, inverter and included Level 2 charger cost $13k (after federal credit) and has enough power to cover all of my current electric needs, my wife's PHEV and hopefully a good chunk of my MME BEV needs. Payback for all costs will be around 6-7 years, even before adding the MME. Solar install prices have come down considerably over the years. Don't assume it is too expensive. I enjoy not paying for electricity at all and I look forward to not paying for gasoline either.

Not assuming it's too expensive, just saying that it's not "pennies" to charge a BEV when the costs are accounted for (as the post I replied to did).

 

[Regularmache]

My solar system installed last year with 20 panels, inverter and included Level 2 charger cost $13k (after federal credit) and has enough power to cover all of my current electric needs, my wife's PHEV and hopefully a good chunk of my MME BEV needs. Payback for all costs will be around 6-7 years, even before adding the MME. Solar install prices have come down considerably over the years. Don't assume it is too expensive. I enjoy not paying for electricity at all and I look forward to not paying for gasoline either.

We just did a 33 panel system, in November, so I might need to add some panels for the MachE. It will take a little math to figure out.

 

[Regularmache]

I would expect pretty serious degradation of resale value year by year as BEVs and batteries continue to improve rapidly this decade. I wouldn't buy one if holding resale value is a big requirement in your criteria.

But having said that, the vehicle should always be great for around-home use, even if the battery eventually degrades 30%. Range is important, but it's not everything. For instance, there are some people that will be buying the SR battery rather than the ER battery even today, to save the $5000, and because the SR still makes the vehicle plenty usable for around-home use. Today's ER will be similar in a few years -- still useful, but at a significantly discounted price relative to newer vehicles with 400+ mile range.

We may switch to the SR just due to the reduction in cargo space. Wife wants at least what her Murano has at 39cuft. The ER looks like it's only 26.

 

[abr]

Not assuming it's too expensive, just saying that it's not "pennies" to charge a BEV when the costs are accounted for (as the post I replied to did).

Tim - I understand. I just wanted to point out that typical solar systems are not 10's of thousands of dollars. Also, once payback is reached, charging my car at home won't even cost me pennies - it will be FREE. Until then, it will only be pennies at most.

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