Article: Ford CEO Jim Farley prepares for 'way smaller' EV market than expected

music_cities

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The difference is that automobiles could do more and go faster than horses whereas EV's are actually slower on a trip when you factor in time to recharge/fuel compared to an ICE vehicle. Bottom line until EV's can be recharged as fast as an ICE vehicle can be refueled they are a compromise not an advancement.
I know what you’re trying to say but 90% of my charging I do at home while sleeping and that can’t be done on an ice car so that a huge advancement. Also no fumes while warming the cabin in winter.
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music_cities

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Not everyone has access to charging at home ( * ), which means until charging at a charging station is fast [think 5, not 20-40 minutes] it's going to keep a majority of people stuck driving ICE vehicles.

( * ) Imagine the infrastructure expense building out roadside or 'wireless' under the pavement / parking spot charging. People renting in apartments, especially in older cities/suburbs with on street parking, which is a huge percent of people are never going to see charging at home unless they run an extension cord (which isn't feasible and is likely illegal in most places due to potential fire risk).

The EV market is reaching current saturation. Tech leap needs to happen before the next bump in market growth will happen. Newer battery chemistry (more density and compatible with faster charging) in the pipeline is going to help. That's still not a "tomorrow" reality, maybe next decade. The dilemma for car makers is keeping the smallish EV market afloat until then.
I agree we need major advances in neighbourhood overnight charging so renters and/or people in multifamily dwelling can fairly participate in this revolution. Curbside L2s (even lower powered L2s, focused on a 10hr overnight charge) *should* be feasible to roll out neighborhood wide (eg one per block) at a reasonable cost, but the world (and most of you here) are so focused on unpleasant noisy highway-adjacent DCFCs that we aren’t focusing on neighbourhood chargers for those not lucky enough to own a house with a garage or driveway.
 

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Does that 20 minutes include the time it takes to get to the charger as well as the time it takes to get back on the road?

Road trips are fine as long as you don’t mind some extra planning and aren’t in a hurry.

Based on the number of people on the highway going 15+ over the speed limit vs those putting along at slower speeds in the right lane, we know who the “in a hurry” vs the “take your time” people are.

Just had a single day 6 hour round trip drive yesterday for work. Did it all in 3/4 of a tank in my wife’s Lincoln. Zero chance you could convince me to take the Mach E when I do that same trip about once a month.

Left my house at 8am and got home near 11 pm. In the Mach E? Would have had to leave earlier and probably get home around midnight. Hard pass.
Why would I choose a stop that isn't just off the interstate as gas stations are located? Drove 800+ miles in one day without a real difference from when taking my old hybrid SUV.
 

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Why would I choose a stop that isn't just off the interstate as gas stations are located? Drove 800+ miles in one day without a real difference from when taking my old hybrid SUV.
Depends on what’s available on your route.

But still, getting off the highway, to the charger hooking up, then unhooking and getting back on the highway all takes time.

You didn’t answer the question, but as I suspected it adds more than the “20 minutes” you mentioned earlier.

800+ miles without a “real difference?”

Sorry, but that’s just not possible. EV will add more than an hour, maybe even 2 hours to that trip.

I’ve driven about 800 mile trips many times in a regular gas car (was my commute to college years ago).

It involved one pit stop for 30 minutes halfway to fuel, bathroom and eat, then back on the road. When driving that far I’m always “in a hurry.”

Mach E would make it 200 miles, then 30+ minutes to charge, then 160 miles, 30+ minute to charge…… etc. Assuming you find an available working charger (read any of the road trip stories here and it’s more rare that refueling all goes smoothly on a long trip).
 

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I know what you’re trying to say but 90% of my charging I do at home while sleeping and that can’t be done on an ice car so that a huge advancement. Also no fumes while warming the cabin in winter.
I can't argue with that, the ability to charge at home is one of the best features of an EV.
 


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I agree we need major advances in neighbourhood overnight charging so renters and/or people in multifamily dwelling can fairly participate in this revolution. Curbside L2s (even lower powered L2s, focused on a 10hr overnight charge) *should* be feasible to roll out neighborhood wide (eg one per block) at a reasonable cost, but the world (and most of you here) are so focused on unpleasant noisy highway-adjacent DCFCs that we aren’t focusing on neighbourhood chargers for those not lucky enough to own a house with a garage or driveway.
The other factor is copper theft and vandalism. The more unsupervised / unpatrolled charging stations, the more reliability issues and higher costs to maintain. There's no easy solution(s) because humans. (Almost) Everything American society has built in the last century for transport revolves around personal transport powered by fossil fuels. I'm starting to wonder if solar panels on the roof, hood, trunk lid of cars is the way out. Current solar cell tech isn't anywhere efficient enough to do anything more than power the non drivetrain systems in current EVs, so we're several iterations away from that even being an option. But that could largely eliminate some of the home or fast charging station need.
 
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The other factor is copper theft and vandalism. The more unsupervised / unpatrolled charging stations, the more reliability issues and higher costs to maintain. There's no easy solution(s) because humans. (Almost) Everything American society has built in the last century for transport revolves around personal transport powered by fossil fuels. I'm starting to wonder if solar panels on the roof, hood, trunk lid of cars is the way out. Current solar cell tech isn't anywhere efficient enough to do anything more than power the non drivetrain systems in current EVs, so we're several iterations away from that even being an option. But that could largely eliminate some of the home or fast charging station need.
The new NACS standard allows bring-your-own-cable for Level 2 charging. Then, there isn't a cable lying around not being used waiting for theft. The cable is only out when it's being used. Bring-your-own-cable also makes neighbourhood L2 chargers much less visually intrusive — they could be integrated into existing streetlight poles, for example. But, it's going to take some concerted effort to role out enough cable-less L2 chargers in a few neighbourhoods to make it worthwhile for people in those neighbourhoods to buy their own NACS cable. I suspect we're talking a decade or more before bring-your-own-cable for L2 is common in North America. (It's already common in Europe.)
 

Blue highway

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I just checked my Crystal ball o_O ... it says that '26 will be a step backwards in the US for EV adoption, but adoption rates will increase again in '27 and beyond. The rest of the world will continue EV adoption unabated. Look at what happened with EV adoption in Germany when the tax incentives were removed. in one year, EV share dropped from ~20% to ~12%. A year later with no incentives EV market share has topped 30%. The EV sky is not falling.

Perspective is important. Globally 1 in 4 cars sold in 2025 are electric and the percentage goes up every year. In 2020 it was hardly any. In the scheme of things in the car market this is explosive growth even though we don't see it so much in the US.

More perspective... In the US, the total number of ICE cars goes down every year now because the cars that are scrapped every year are almost all ICE cars and the percentage of new cars that are ICE are going down.

The US car industry can't hide behind tariffs forever. EV import options are going to crush Ford and GM in 2030 because the rest of the world is refreshing EV models at better than twice the rate of the US makers. The imports are already two generations ahead of Ford.... look at what BMW and Hyundai/Kia are doing... this makes me sad.

The Crystal ball also shows DCFC everywhere... the number of US fast charging ports will exceed 100,000 by 2027, nearly quadruple the number in 2022 and double the number from 2024.

The future is EVs
 

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The other factor is copper theft and vandalism. The more unsupervised / unpatrolled charging stations, the more reliability issues and higher costs to maintain. There's no easy solution(s) because humans. (Almost) Everything American society has built in the last century for transport revolves around personal transport powered by fossil fuels. I'm starting to wonder if solar panels on the roof, hood, trunk lid of cars is the way out. Current solar cell tech isn't anywhere efficient enough to do anything more than power the non drivetrain systems in current EVs, so we're several iterations away from that even being an option. But that could largely eliminate some of the home or fast charging station need.
Induction charging . Copper theft problem solved 😀
 

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The other factor is copper theft and vandalism. The more unsupervised / unpatrolled charging stations, the more reliability issues and higher costs to maintain. There's no easy solution(s) because humans. (Almost) Everything American society has built in the last century for transport revolves around personal transport powered by fossil fuels. I'm starting to wonder if solar panels on the roof, hood, trunk lid of cars is the way out. Current solar cell tech isn't anywhere efficient enough to do anything more than power the non drivetrain systems in current EVs, so we're several iterations away from that even being an option. But that could largely eliminate some of the home or fast charging station need.
Solar is actually fairly efficient compared to other tech.

The issue is the limited amount of energy available from solar. Panels everywhere only get you a mile or two of range a day in full sunlight.

I still picture some future conveyor belt highway system and powering it with large solar arrays.

Or even just some charging system that can connect to cars while moving.

Like how Trolleybuses work-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus
 

stoopid

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Induction charging . Copper theft problem solved 😀
I mentioned this in a recent previous post, and it's (too) expensive to roll out to suburbs and cities with on street parking. The charge stations could invest in it, and maybe they will if the bring your own cable thing doesn't catch. But with margins already thin operating these stations, and the infusion of cash for reinvesting in upgrades vanishing, I don't see any major innovations in this space anytime soon. What we see if what we get for the foreseeable future. The car makers also need to get behind wireless charging, implementing it in future models. It just seems like money that doesn't exist is needed for any of this.
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