2021 Prem AWD Ford Options end - what to do?

[SoriceConsulting]

I have (and love) my 2021 Premium AWD MachE. It is in pristine condition, only 10,800 miles, always Level2 charged at home (never fast charged).

Pricing when bought:
$55,000 - $7,500 (Fed Tax Credit, which I took on my Fed Return) - $5,000 (New Jersey EV Incentive) - $2,500 (Ford/Mustang Club Incentives) = $40,000
Also, no sales tax on EVs in NJ, so $40k is what it cost me.

My Ford Options Contract ends 05/30/2024.

Options end price is $25,000 to buyout the car.

Started poking around and looks like I could get around $25k - $30k for my car.

Dilemma:
Due to the goofy Government rules, leasing seems to be the way to go, since the Dealer *should* apply the $7,500 credit towards the lease deal. And the GTPE looks like a really good deal right now:

So, my questions for all you finance gurus out there:
> The new GTPE MSRP is $57,395. If I lease, should I expect the Dealer to then subtract the $7,500 tax credit?
That would take the price down to $49,895 (57,395 - 7,500)

> If so, what is a reasonable 3-year lease / buyout price based on $49,895?

As I said, love my MachE, but should probably move on to a lease arrangement. Recommendations, opinions welcome!

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[SoriceConsulting]

Giving this a bump, as no one has replied :^(

Any opinions out there?

 

[kennethjk]

You have to check with ford how they are handling the $7500 on a lease and what their money factor is and of course what residual they are using.

bmw has been offering a super low money factor for example On the ix50

 

[SoriceConsulting]

You have to check with ford how they are handling the $7500 on a lease and what their money factor is and of course what residual they are using.

bmw has been offering a super low money factor for example On the ix50

Thanks kennethjk! I'm clueless on how the financing stuff works, but I'm not one to readily trust what the Dealer says. My local one so far has said that the 7,500 is no longer valid(?), but he has to check with his boss. He also said GTPE MSRP is $62K.

I did quick build on ford.com for GTPE and came up with 52,395:

If the 7500 comes off that, the lease should be based on 44,895 (52,395 - 7,500).

Not sure if that's right...

 

[kennethjk]

He might be right about the 23 not being eligible for the 7500, I would have to check. If given to you it is netted out but then there is a residual on the car , that’s the supposed value of the car at the end of the lease.

what you can do is ask him for the lease money factor on a 3 year 10k lease and what the residual is. There are programs on the internet that can run numbers for you

 

[SoriceConsulting]

Thanks kennethjk!

I should hear from him tomorrow. Money factor, residual, etc. is all gibberish to me (sorry)!

I'll post back on what he comes up with and then hopefully someone can chime on whether it is a reasonable deal or not.

 

[carbonizedbrett]

This is what ford.com is showing for a GTPE.

I'm in a similar situation but will post separately with how I am approaching the math.

 

[SoriceConsulting]

This is what ford.com is showing for a GTPE.

I'm in a similar situation but will post separately with how I am approaching the math.

carbonizedbrett, since we're both from NJ, maybe you can post your findings here as well? That would be great since we're both in NJ and in similar situation.

 

[generaltso]

Any opinions out there?

If you love your car, why not just keep it? You’ve already taken the depreciation hit at this point.

 

[kennethjk]

Take a look at this but it is for purchases.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car...ids-that-qualify-for-tax-credits-a7820795671/

all cars that are leased qualify for the credit.

 

[carbonizedbrett]

Warning: I frame complicated questions/problems in unconventional ways and reduce things down to a simpler comparison that makes sense to me. It may not make sense to anybody else.

My 2021 Premium 4x Option is up in June. I've got 30k miles as of right now, with new tires about 6k ago. I have not yet exercised the 3-year BlueCruise for $600 option. If I decide to keep the car, I will buy an extended warranty. My balloon is $24,100. I figure keeping it will cost me just shy of $26k but that doesn't include my own "cost of money." At 0%, that's about $722/month. If I give up some T-bills and guestimate 3% (currently ~4% yield after tax, but expecting that to go down), that's more like a monthly of $756 and 3-year cost of $27,200.

So for simplicity's sake, I'd pay $27k for 3 more years with my car end up with whatever it's worth at the end.

When I'm looking at leases, I add up the money down and the monthly payments to get my total 3-year cost.

I then try to weigh whatever the difference is, positive or negative, plus the unknown value of my Mach E in June 2027, against how much happier I'd be with the other car for 3 years.

For example, if I could actually find a Q4 etron and get this deal for for $18,254 for 3 years...

I'd save $8746. But I really, really doubt I'd be happier in a Q4 etron AND I think it's reasonable to think my Mach E would be worth more than $9k June of 2027.

Conversely, let's assume the Electrified GV70 I test drove had lived up to my expectation based on the specs. The current deal on the Advanced trim is something like $5999 / $569/month, or a 3-year cost of $26k. So I "save" $1000 but lose the value of my Mach E. The GV70e is much more luxurious, much more powerful, car than my Mach E. Out-accelerates it by a shocking amount. Range is lower but is irrelevant to me. Premium interior and features, really just a whole different class. If it had met my expectations, I'd absolutely have given up my June-27 Mach E value (less $1000) to drive it for 3 years.

To be fair, the GV70 is an amazing vehicle. If I were coming from an ICE car, heck, my 2012 Genesis Sedan, it probably would have been a total winner. But we're coming from a car built on a designed-to-be-an-EV platform and the bling/flash isn't quite "us."

The exterior dimensions are almost exactly the same as the Mach E. And it's got a crazy amount of nifty little features, many of which I appreciated but didn't need/really want. On paper, it should have been the perfect replacement. But both my wife and I just didn't feel it. My wife picked up right away on some of the ICE-electrified compromises: 1) the intrusion of the transmission hump and 2) it just didn't feel as roomy/open as our Mach E. I was also rather disappointed in the Lexicon stereo in the Prestige trim. My Mach E replaced a 2012 Genesis Sedan with a Lexicon DVD-Audio system that I still miss to this day. This wasn't even close. (The B&O system in the GV60 Performance was very impressive though. We will need to test drive one but it's smaller than the Hyundai/Kia counterparts and maybe a little too blingy for us. A friend pointed me to this, which I found helpful, btw.)

I also drove a Volvo C40 Twin. It was a blast and I really liked it. It has more power than the Mach E felt quicker and more tossable. It's about 10 inches shorted but about the same weight. If I was 10 years younger, it might have been a serious contender. Although I'd probably opt for the XC40 for the extra headroom in the back but would hate to trade the looks of the C40 for practicality. They were reasonably aggressive on a 2023 XC40 lease - I don't have the numbers handy but will come back later with them.

Tomorrow I test drive a Lyriq.

I may even hold my nose and show her a BMW iX. A $95k car for 3 years for $5,500 plus the future value of my Mach E? Seems like an incredible, if ugly, value?

 

[SoriceConsulting]

If you love your car, why not just keep it? You’ve already taken the depreciation hit at this point.

Thanks generaltso for the input. I'm concerned that I'll be out of warranty, and that the technology is advancing fast enough that the car will depreciate even more quickly over the next few years. Getting the 7,500 credit on a lease deal seems prudent if I can sell (or trade) my 2021 for about $30k.

 

[SoriceConsulting]

Warning: I frame complicated questions/problems in unconventional ways and reduce things down to a simpler comparison that makes sense to me. It may not make sense to anybody else.

My 2021 Premium 4x Option is up in June. I've got 30k miles as of right now, with new tires about 6k ago. I have not yet exercised the 3-year BlueCruise for $600 option. If I decide to keep the car, I will buy an extended warranty. My balloon is $24,100. I figure keeping it will cost me just shy of $26k but that doesn't include my own "cost of money." At 0%, that's about $722/month. If I give up some T-bills and guestimate 3% (currently ~4% yield after tax, but expecting that to go down), that's more like a monthly of $756 and 3-year cost of $27,200.

So for simplicity's sake, I'd pay $27k for 3 more years with my car end up with whatever it's worth at the end.

When I'm looking at leases, I add up the money down and the monthly payments to get my total 3-year cost.

I then try to weigh whatever the difference is, positive or negative, plus the unknown value of my Mach E in June 2027, against how much happier I'd be with the other car for 3 years.

For example, if I could actually find a Q4 etron and get this deal for for $18,254 for 3 years...

I'd save $8746. But I really, really doubt I'd be happier in a Q4 etron AND I think it's reasonable to think my Mach E would be worth more than $9k June of 2027.

Conversely, let's assume the Electrified GV70 I test drove had lived up to my expectation based on the specs. The current deal on the Advanced trim is something like $5999 / $569/month, or a 3-year cost of $26k. So I "save" $1000 but lose the value of my Mach E. The GV70e is much more luxurious, much more powerful, car than my Mach E. Out-accelerates it by a shocking amount. Range is lower but is irrelevant to me. Premium interior and features, really just a whole different class. If it had met my expectations, I'd absolutely have given up my June-27 Mach E value (less $1000) to drive it for 3 years.

To be fair, the GV70 is an amazing vehicle. If I were coming from an ICE car, heck, my 2012 Genesis Sedan, it probably would have been a total winner. But we're coming from a car built on a designed-to-be-an-EV platform and the bling/flash isn't quite "us."

The exterior dimensions are almost exactly the same as the Mach E. And it's got a crazy amount of nifty little features, many of which I appreciated but didn't need/really want. On paper, it should have been the perfect replacement. But both my wife and I just didn't feel it. My wife picked up right away on some of the ICE-electrified compromises: 1) the intrusion of the transmission hump and 2) it just didn't feel as roomy/open as our Mach E. I was also rather disappointed in the Lexicon stereo in the Prestige trim. My Mach E replaced a 2012 Genesis Sedan with a Lexicon DVD-Audio system that I still miss to this day. This wasn't even close. (The B&O system in the GV60 Performance was very impressive though. We will need to test drive one but it's smaller than the Hyundai/Kia counterparts and maybe a little too blingy for us. A friend pointed me to this, which I found helpful, btw.)

I also drove a Volvo C40 Twin. It was a blast and I really liked it. It has more power than the Mach E felt quicker and more tossable. It's about 10 inches shorted but about the same weight. If I was 10 years younger, it might have been a serious contender. Although I'd probably opt for the XC40 for the extra headroom in the back but would hate to trade the looks of the C40 for practicality. They were reasonably aggressive on a 2023 XC40 lease - I don't have the numbers handy but will come back later with them.

Tomorrow I test drive a Lyriq.

I may even hold my nose and show her a BMW iX. A $95k car for 3 years for $5,500 plus the future value of my Mach E? Seems like an incredible, if ugly, value?

Thanks carbonizedbrett! You are a better researcher than me! Keep me posted - and I'll also post back with what I find out from my Dealers.

 

[kennethjk]

Warning: I frame complicated questions/problems in unconventional ways and reduce things down to a simpler comparison that makes sense to me. It may not make sense to anybody else.

My 2021 Premium 4x Option is up in June. I've got 30k miles as of right now, with new tires about 6k ago. I have not yet exercised the 3-year BlueCruise for $600 option. If I decide to keep the car, I will buy an extended warranty. My balloon is $24,100. I figure keeping it will cost me just shy of $26k but that doesn't include my own "cost of money." At 0%, that's about $722/month. If I give up some T-bills and guestimate 3% (currently ~4% yield after tax, but expecting that to go down), that's more like a monthly of $756 and 3-year cost of $27,200.

So for simplicity's sake, I'd pay $27k for 3 more years with my car end up with whatever it's worth at the end.

When I'm looking at leases, I add up the money down and the monthly payments to get my total 3-year cost.

I then try to weigh whatever the difference is, positive or negative, plus the unknown value of my Mach E in June 2027, against how much happier I'd be with the other car for 3 years.

For example, if I could actually find a Q4 etron and get this deal for for $18,254 for 3 years...

I'd save $8746. But I really, really doubt I'd be happier in a Q4 etron AND I think it's reasonable to think my Mach E would be worth more than $9k June of 2027.

Conversely, let's assume the Electrified GV70 I test drove had lived up to my expectation based on the specs. The current deal on the Advanced trim is something like $5999 / $569/month, or a 3-year cost of $26k. So I "save" $1000 but lose the value of my Mach E. The GV70e is much more luxurious, much more powerful, car than my Mach E. Out-accelerates it by a shocking amount. Range is lower but is irrelevant to me. Premium interior and features, really just a whole different class. If it had met my expectations, I'd absolutely have given up my June-27 Mach E value (less $1000) to drive it for 3 years.

To be fair, the GV70 is an amazing vehicle. If I were coming from an ICE car, heck, my 2012 Genesis Sedan, it probably would have been a total winner. But we're coming from a car built on a designed-to-be-an-EV platform and the bling/flash isn't quite "us."

The exterior dimensions are almost exactly the same as the Mach E. And it's got a crazy amount of nifty little features, many of which I appreciated but didn't need/really want. On paper, it should have been the perfect replacement. But both my wife and I just didn't feel it. My wife picked up right away on some of the ICE-electrified compromises: 1) the intrusion of the transmission hump and 2) it just didn't feel as roomy/open as our Mach E. I was also rather disappointed in the Lexicon stereo in the Prestige trim. My Mach E replaced a 2012 Genesis Sedan with a Lexicon DVD-Audio system that I still miss to this day. This wasn't even close. (The B&O system in the GV60 Performance was very impressive though. We will need to test drive one but it's smaller than the Hyundai/Kia counterparts and maybe a little too blingy for us. A friend pointed me to this, which I found helpful, btw.)

I also drove a Volvo C40 Twin. It was a blast and I really liked it. It has more power than the Mach E felt quicker and more tossable. It's about 10 inches shorted but about the same weight. If I was 10 years younger, it might have been a serious contender. Although I'd probably opt for the XC40 for the extra headroom in the back but would hate to trade the looks of the C40 for practicality. They were reasonably aggressive on a 2023 XC40 lease - I don't have the numbers handy but will come back later with them.

Tomorrow I test drive a Lyriq.

I may even hold my nose and show her a BMW iX. A $95k car for 3 years for $5,500 plus the future value of my Mach E? Seems like an incredible, if ugly, value?

All this is great stuff, thanks

do all the leases have the same annual mileage? There are special discounts that certain companies have, such as being able to get another 8-10% off on the BMW above and beyond the 9900 they mentioned in their sales advertisements. Sales tax considerations may be the same for all but not necessarily.

Example: an IX 50 with MSRP of $96k just a month ago could be had for low 800’s and that includes tax, a refundable deposit (basically a 12% annual return on your money) for 12k miles a year and a 3 year lease.. The only money down was bank fee , first month payment and the usual registration fees etc. and as I mentioned above the refundable deposit of $5995 held by BMW not the dealer. BMW money factor was under 1% with that deposit. Or a number very close to it.

just some other things to consider.
.

 

[generaltso]

Thanks generaltso for the input. I'm concerned that I'll be out of warranty, and that the technology is advancing fast enough that the car will depreciate even more quickly over the next few years.

Well, I can’t guarantee what technology will come, but I can guarantee that a brand new MME will depreciate a lot more than the one you’ve got. You’ll essentially be getting hit with the brunt of the depreciation twice.

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