Ford Executive Shakeup

[Kamuelaflyer]

...because only shareholders can buy cars?

Sorry, I don't understand what you're saying.

Of course you don't. Troll elsewhere.

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[Billyk24]

That's also why it's frustrating that Ford hasn't built their own battery plant. I really thought I'd see that by now. It's like they're not taking it seriously - because I really think they aren't.

Bill Gates, Ford, BMW, Toyota, Hyundai, VW -from what I know-have investments in solid state battery technology. Toyota, VW and Hyundai(?) have press releases that EV's with solid state batteries will arrive for the 2025 model year. Potentially, this will/should lead to improved EV range due to greater energy density and quicker EV charging like in 0-80% in under 15 minutes. Then there is the advantage of better thermal regulation and control with solid state batteries. We will find out in a couple of years if this is true and Ford did the correct thing by not making a huge investment in current battery technology.

 

[Jolteon]

Of course you don't. Troll elsewhere.

You're kidding, right?

 

[dbsb3233]

That's also why it's frustrating that Ford hasn't built their own battery plant. I really thought I'd see that by now. It's like they're not taking it seriously - because I really think they aren't.

Pros and cons to that. As Richard said, it's still a supply chain issue, except with raw materials instead. Ford gets to stay more flexible by using 3rd party battery suppliers, who have massive plants coming online this decade too. And Ford doesn't have to put in a huge up-front investment that way, which is risky because it could all change on a dime.

Even if they did eventually decide to get in the battery manufacturing business, it's too soon for just a few% of their total vehicle sales. They'll still be mostly ICE and PHEV for at least this decade (and PHEV only needs a fraction of the batteries).

 

[Jolteon]

Pros and cons to that. As Richard said, it's still a supply chain issue, except with raw materials instead. Ford gets to stay more flexible by using 3rd party battery suppliers, who have massive plants coming online this decade too. And Ford doesn't have to put in a huge up-front investment that way, which is risky because it could all change on a dime.

Even if they did eventually decide to get in the battery manufacturing business, it's too soon for just a few% of their total vehicle sales. They'll still be mostly ICE and PHEV for at least this decade (and PHEV only needs a fraction of the batteries).

I really can't see it being mostly ICE and PHEV (at all PHEV) this decade.

We're going to close the decade above 50% BEV sales I truly believe that.

 

[dbsb3233]

I really can't see it being mostly ICE and PHEV (at all PHEV) this decade.

We're going to close the decade above 50% BEV sales I truly believe that.

Depends on how much and how fast batteries improve. The experts are predicting more like 30%, but it might reach 50% by 2030 if batteries improve faster.

But that includes companies like Tesla, Rivian, etc that are 100% BEV, pulling up the average. Doesn't meant Ford will be 50%.

 

[Jolteon]

Depends on how much and how fast batteries improve. The experts are predicting more like 30%, but it might reach 50% by 2030 if batteries improve faster.

But that includes companies like Tesla, Rivian, etc that are 100% BEV, pulling up the average. Doesn't meant Ford will be 50%.

Right, I agree completely that the 100% BEV players will make up the majority of the BEV sales moving forward, unless something changes.

That's why I fear Ford is destined to shrink and shrink and shrink and shrink unless they become a 100% BEV manufacturer. They'll be fighting all the other incumbents for the scraps of the ICE market that are left. The only growth in the US and Europe will be in BEVs, but that growth comes at the expense of ICE volumes - more cars won't be sold, just more of the cars that are sold will be BEVs.

If Ford keeps their current market share of ICE in a world where sales are 50% BEV... Ford will be 1/2 the size of today, since they'll have their same %, but of an ICE market that has become half the size of today's.

 

[SyNRG]

Tesla wanting to buy stake in LG speaks volumes of the battery war coming. Those who are late to the table might suffer.

This part I find the most interesting because Tesla already gets their batteries from CATL and Panasonic. I can't help but wonder, being that they are the major player for BEVs, how this will impact others.

 

[kdryden99]

This part I find the most interesting because Tesla already gets their batteries from CATL and Panasonic. I can't help but wonder, being that they are the major player for BEVs, how this will impact others.

They're basically hoarding and triying to gather as many resources as possible. It's like playing starcraft, build your base, expand and just collect as much resources as possible asap

 

[Billyk24]

They're basically hoarding and triying to gather as many resources as possible. It's like playing starcraft, build your base, expand and just collect as much resources as possible asap

They are basing it on number of retail sales and stock price. With more bev arriving in the retail market, wii Tesla begin to suffer and struggle in the retsil sales when consumers realize non-Tesla bev have significantly better quality control and better owner experience? It happened to the big three in the 70s and 80s with the arrival of Honda, Toyota and others.

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

I really can't see it being mostly ICE and PHEV (at all PHEV) this decade.

We're going to close the decade above 50% BEV sales I truly believe that.

This is going to be not just tied to battery availability but to manufacturers as well. Honda, Toyota, and FCA are all not really on board with full BEVs yet... in fact, Toyota seems to be actively pushing against it (they are still in the "hydrogen is the future" camp)...

But 2030 is a long way away for sure. Lots of time for change and lots of time for price drops.

Ford's already saying the BEV F-150 will have the lowest TCO of any F-150 variant, and the ID.4 is very close to ICE-beating on price. If the $25K Tesla happens, eventually, that will definitely be ICE-beating... and who knows what Hyundai/Kia will do since they are not at zero for a BEV.

I guess the upshot is that I'm not at the same place you are, but I'm not saying you're wrong, either. Just too many unknowns right now, I think.

 

[kdryden99]

This is going to be not just tied to battery availability but to manufacturers as well. Honda, Toyota, and FCA are all not really on board with full BEVs yet... in fact, Toyota seems to be actively pushing against it (they are still in the "hydrogen is the future" camp)...

But 2030 is a long way away for sure. Lots of time for change and lots of time for price drops.

Ford's already saying the BEV F-150 will have the lowest TCO of any F-150 variant, and the ID.4 is very close to ICE-beating on price. If the $25K Tesla happens, eventually, that will definitely be ICE-beating... and who knows what Hyundai/Kia will do since they are not at zero for a BEV.

I guess the upshot is that I'm not at the same place you are, but I'm not saying you're wrong, either. Just too many unknowns right now, I think.

I dont know how many of you are aware but Honda partnered with GM for there BEVs

 

[RonTCat]

I really can't see it being mostly ICE and PHEV (at all PHEV) this decade.

We're going to close the decade above 50% BEV sales I truly believe that.

This is going to be not just tied to battery availability but to manufacturers as well. Honda, Toyota, and FCA are all not really on board with full BEVs yet... in fact, Toyota seems to be actively pushing against it (they are still in the "hydrogen is the future" camp)...

There an old saying about hydrogen... "Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, and always will be."

 

[trutolife27]

I dont know how many of you are aware but Honda partnered with GM for there BEVs

Gm and honda have been working together for about 2 decades. They just talk now to try to help play catch up in the EV market. Basically, honda needs to help can't afford to go in alone on the ev market. Gm is using honda as a test before they launch more of their own EV vehicles.

 

[dbsb3233]

Right, I agree completely that the 100% BEV players will make up the majority of the BEV sales moving forward, unless something changes.

That's why I fear Ford is destined to shrink and shrink and shrink and shrink unless they become a 100% BEV manufacturer. They'll be fighting all the other incumbents for the scraps of the ICE market that are left. The only growth in the US and Europe will be in BEVs, but that growth comes at the expense of ICE volumes - more cars won't be sold, just more of the cars that are sold will be BEVs.

If Ford keeps their current market share of ICE in a world where sales are 50% BEV... Ford will be 1/2 the size of today, since they'll have their same %, but of an ICE market that has become half the size of today's.

I think Ford will gradually add more BEV models. But sized more to the growth of BEV market share. Which in the US is still <3%. I don't think that market share will skyrocket faster than Ford can adjust to match it.

It took Ford 3 years to develop the Mach-E. If the market moves dramatically fast to BEVs (which I'm not expecting, and neither is Ford), then Ford may be a few years behind catching up. But only a few years. Frankly though I think it may be the other way -- that the market shifting to BEVs will be slower than many are hoping for (there's still real hurdles to compete with ICE, like price, range, and refuel speed). And it if does progress more slowly like the analysts expect, cranking out great ICE and PHEV vehicles will still be where most of the money is to be made for many years.

Either way though, there's a big market for all 3 (ICE, PHEV, BEV) likely through at least the end of the decade.

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