Ford Executive Shakeup

[Jolteon]

I think Ford will gradually add more BEV models. But sized more to the growth of BEV market share. Which in the US is still <3%. I don't think that market share will skyrocket faster than Ford can adjust to match it.

It took Ford 3 years to develop the Mach-E. If the market moves dramatically fast to BEVs (which I'm not expecting, and neither is Ford), then Ford may be a few years behind catching up. But only a few years. Frankly though I think it may be the other way -- that the market shifting to BEVs will be slower than many are hoping for (there's still real hurdles to compete with ICE, like price, range, and refuel speed). And it if does progress more slowly like the analysts expect, cranking out great ICE and PHEV vehicles will still be where most of the money is to be made for many years.

Either way though, there's a big market for all 3 (ICE, PHEV, BEV) likely through at least the end of the decade.

I really, genuinely can't imagine the transition being that slow. I get that they're using models that are based on historic trends, etc. etc. but that's not how new technology is adopted. I really think we're gonna cross 50% before 2030, and Europe well before 2030.

And not because of regulation - because of customer demand.

I really don't know anyone in my peer group who is not looking at a BEV as their next car. Rivian reservation holders, ID.4 reservation holders, folks waiting to see the EV F-150 and stretching out their current cars... I really think there is a supply shortage of EVs at the moment, and that it's only going to accelerate as costs come down further.

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[Billyk24]

BEV demand needs to overcome the current upfront costs and people are aware of the longest refueling times. Tesla recently state the $25,000.00 car will be arrive but I can remember them talking about the car for the masses, the $35k Model 3 which was never really built or advertised on their site. Ok, you have to call the company about the 35k car which says a lot. I don't see a sudden tilt and surge into BEV in the immediate future.

 

[dbsb3233]

I really don't know anyone in my peer group who is not looking at a BEV as their next car.

Here's an example... Ford has 2 exciting new vehicles coming out now - The Mach-E, and the Bronco (ICE). Both have strong demand, but Bronco demand in the US has been 5x-10x that of the Mach-E.

Your peer group might only want a BEV, but the vast majority of the country doesn't. At least yet.

Frankly, for nearly anyone that doesn't have a place to easily charge overnight (usually a house), a BEV is gonna be a really hard sell. Full-time retail charging is only gonna be accepted by the most hardcore BEV enthusiasts. That rules out about a third of the country right there. Millions of others want a large vehicle (Suburban, Excursion, Explorer, etc). Not much on the horizon for that yet (except maybe the R1S), as range is likely to be a problem until batteries get way better. Many 2-car households will want one BEV and one ICE or PHEV.

 

[abr]

I really, genuinely can't imagine the transition being that slow. I get that they're using models that are based on historic trends, etc. etc. but that's not how new technology is adopted. I really think we're gonna cross 50% before 2030, and Europe well before 2030.

And not because of regulation - because of customer demand.

I really don't know anyone in my peer group who is not looking at a BEV as their next car. Rivian reservation holders, ID.4 reservation holders, folks waiting to see the EV F-150 and stretching out their current cars... I really think there is a supply shortage of EVs at the moment, and that it's only going to accelerate as costs come down further.

Remember that the average age of a car on the road in the US is very old these days - cars are very expensive and people need to keep them a very long time to justify the cost. Even as the % of new BEV vehicles grows and even goes over 50%, there will still be 5-10 years of older ICE vehicles out there.
While we on this forum can afford a $50k vehicle, that is a small % of the US market out there. Used ICE vehicles will be out there for a long time.

 

[Jolteon]

Remember that the average age of a car on the road in the US is very old these days - cars are very expensive and people need to keep them a very long time to justify the cost. Even as the % of new BEV vehicles grows and even goes over 50%, there will still be 5-10 years of older ICE vehicles out there.
While we on this forum can afford a $50k vehicle, that is a small % of the US market out there. Used ICE vehicles will be out there for a long time.

Right. I'm obviously talking about new car sales, since as you point out, we can't control the existing fleet.

 

[dbsb3233]

Right. I'm obviously talking about new car sales, since as you point out, we can't control the existing fleet.

I was too.

 

[kdryden99]

More insight on eventual battery shortage https://news.google.com/articles/CA...sciUCzCQkKoDMLSBwwY?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA:en

 

[JellyBelly]

More insight on eventual battery shortage https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJbOJUNvCwRkfqWwp2l5mfwqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowsciUCzCQkKoDMLSBwwY?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA:en

Interesting details - not sure how the industry will solve this in the long term, there is a limit to what can be mined and processed. Perhaps a better technology than batteries or like Hydrogen or even chemistry that is not as scarce will be an answer.

I was not around when in the first 10 years of automobiles but I am imagining the situation might have been somewhat similar? To actually find gas deposits, large scale facilities to process the crude and continuously expand the network , and to keep up with worldwide demand - I think batteries are in a similar early stage situation?

 

[kdryden99]

Interesting details - not sure how the industry will solve this in the long term, there is a limit to what can be mined and processed. Perhaps a better technology than batteries or like Hydrogen or even chemistry that is not as scarce will be an answer.

I was not around when in the first 10 years of automobiles but I am imagining the situation might have been somewhat similar? To actually find gas deposits, large scale facilities to process the crude and continuously expand the network , and to keep up with worldwide demand - I think batteries are in a similar early stage situation?

short i think early adopters will be at an advantage and the cars wont depreciate much. The demand will be high and batteries wont go down in price. It'll take 7-10yrs for supply to catch up with the demand so prices ov EV's might go up short term.

 

[kdryden99]

I am really curious as to how GM will build those Hummer EV's and Tesla their Cybetrucks with limited battery supply.

 

[dbsb3233]

More insight on eventual battery shortage https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJbOJUNvCwRkfqWwp2l5mfwqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowsciUCzCQkKoDMLSBwwY?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA:en

That's all short-term though. The outlook for longer term is for a TON of huge battery factories.

Consumer demand will take years to grow too. So will the charging networks. Just need patience.

 

[SyNRG]

I am really curious as to how GM will build those Hummer EV's and Tesla their Cybetrucks with limited battery supply.

For GM, they're building their own battery manufacturing facility Ultium Cells LLC.

 

[Billyk24]

For GM, they're building their own battery manufacturing facility Ultium Cells LLC.

That is across the Ohio Turnpike from the Lordstown plant they use to own.

 

[kdryden99]

For GM, they're building their own battery manufacturing facility Ultium Cells LLC.

Everyone can try to build their own batteries but with shortages im sure resources will be hoarded.

That's all short-term though. The outlook for longer term is for a TON of huge battery factories.

Consumer demand will take years to grow too. So will the charging networks. Just need patience.

I agree 100% but right now companies are rushing to buy batteries and build asap to meet Europes requirements and I think EV demand is starting to grow to the point where demand might be higher than supply, for quality vehicles especially not the ecoboxes. So I dont see price drops for the next 5 years.
The next 5 years will be ver important to the OEM's becsuse we will see who adapted and will survive ( Ford, Tesla, Nissan, GM, Vw...) and who will fall behind (Toyota, Honda, FCA...)

 

[Billyk24]

I agree 100% but right now companies are rushing to buy batteries and build asap to meet Europes requirements and I think EV demand is starting to grow to the point where demand might be higher than supply, for quality vehicles especially not the ecoboxes. So I dont see price drops for the next 5 years.
The next 5 years will be ver important to the OEM's becsuse we will see who adapted and will survive ( Ford, Tesla, Nissan, GM, Vw...) and who will fall behind (Toyota, Honda, FCA...)

But Toyota is on track to introduce a solid state battery power EV in 2025-

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/07/28...vGi2V-P_CEF0a15yjh_BxMiGlA4Y3cpk1UTbn58kTTQg6 -.

Greater energy density and range, lower weight, faster charging, minimum or zero thermal regulation required, longer duration. Cost?

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