Ford Executive Shakeup

[Maric]

For GM, they're building their own battery manufacturing facility Ultium Cells LLC.

Tesla has announced they are also bringing battery production in house.

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[kdryden99]

I agree 100% but right now companies are rushing to buy batteries and build asap to meet Europes requirements and I think EV demand is starting to grow to the point where demand might be higher than supply, for quality vehicles especially not the ecoboxes. So I dont see price drops for the next 5 years.
The next 5 years will be ver important to the OEM's becsuse we will see who adapted and will survive ( Ford, Tesla, Nissan, GM, Vw...) and who will fall behind (Toyota, Honda, FCA...)

But Toyota is on track to introduce a solid state battery power EV in 2025-

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/07/28...vGi2V-P_CEF0a15yjh_BxMiGlA4Y3cpk1UTbn58kTTQg6 -.

Greater energy density and range, lower weight, faster charging, minimum or zero thermal regulation required, longer duration. Cost?

According to many scientists and experts solid state batteries are not feasible. I know many believe 5yrs but we know how tech works it takes much longer than expected.

https://insideevs.com/news/443450/ex-tesla-solid-state-batteries-false-hope/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...es-quietly-grow-bets-on-solid-state-batteries

 

[Billyk24]

According to many scientists and experts solid state batteries are not feasible. I know many believe 5yrs but we know how tech works it takes much longer than expected.

https://insideevs.com/news/443450/ex-tesla-solid-state-batteries-false-hope/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...es-quietly-grow-bets-on-solid-state-batteries

follow the money-all 3.3 billion:


Jagdeep Singh started a company called QuantumScape that’s using solid-state technology for their batteries.

Thanks to immediate valuation from investors like Bill Gates, QuantumScape is now worth $3.3 billion, and major backers Volkswagen have already committed to using Singh’s technology in their next generation of EVs in 2024.

 

[dbsb3233]

The next 5 years will be ver important to the OEM's becsuse we will see who adapted and will survive ( Ford, Tesla, Nissan, GM, Vw...) and who will fall behind (Toyota, Honda, FCA...)

Agree with that general direction, but not to that degree and speed. I don't see it transitioning that fast. I look for a gradual shift to electrics (BEV + PHEV) through the decade and beyond. By 2025 I still see 70-80% of the light duty passenger market being ICE and hybrid, which leaves a lot of room for all those manufacturers to continue to thrive. Some will get deeper/faster into EVs than others, of course, but I think there will remain plenty of ICE demand into 2025 and even the rest of the decade.

I think PHEV will be big this decade, and a key part of how many of the major automakers avoid being punished by governments. And they can make something like 8 of those for the same number of batteries it takes to make one BEV. Thus fitting within with the near-term battery supply tightness.

Just my guess, anyway.

 

[efisher]

Frankly, for nearly anyone that doesn't have a place to easily charge overnight (usually a house), a BEV is gonna be a really hard sell. Full-time retail charging is only gonna be accepted by the most hardcore BEV enthusiasts. That rules out about a third of the country right there. Millions of others want a large vehicle (Suburban, Excursion, Explorer, etc). Not much on the horizon for that yet (except maybe the R1S), as range is likely to be a problem until batteries get way better. Many 2-car households will want one BEV and one ICE or PHEV.

I recently read about a new battery technology that could allow a full charge in five min. If that becomes a reality, (and at a reasonable cost,) then it is a whole new ball game.

 

[kdryden99]

Agree with that general direction, but not to that degree and speed. I don't see it transitioning that fast. I look for a gradual shift to electrics (BEV + PHEV) through the decade and beyond. By 2025 I still see 70-80% of the light duty passenger market being ICE and hybrid, which leaves a lot of room for all those manufacturers to continue to thrive. Some will get deeper/faster into EVs than others, of course, but I think there will remain plenty of ICE demand into 2025 and even the rest of the decade.

I think PHEV will be big this decade, and a key part of how many of the major automakers avoid being punished by governments. And they can make something like 8 of those for the same number of batteries it takes to make one BEV. Thus fitting within with the near-term battery supply tightness.

Just my guess, anyway.

I just dont see PHEV being that worthwhile. While i understand it helps alleviate range anxeity and the switchover to BEV easier i feel like its a more expensive more complicated vehicle that long term, can be more expensive due to repairs. I compare it to our heating systems here in Canada. You can go oil, you can go dual energy (oil-electric combo), or just electric. Many who switched to straight electric found that long term it was cheaper and better and i feel the same applies to the EV's

 

[kdryden99]

I recently read about a new battery technology that could allow a full charge in five min. If that becomes a reality, (and at a reasonable cost,) then it is a whole new ball game.

Its one of the reasons i am leasing but im confident that battery tech will be slow to improve. It wont be the same performance curve of a computer processor, more like the efficiency and power increase of a 4 cylinder engine.

 

[kdryden99]

A lot of trial and error occurs with the R&D of battery tech which is why it is so slow. Some companies have started to use AI to try and reduce the time it takes to develop but its still a long process. There are so many variables in battery manufacturing that you spend 2-3 yrs designing and developing a battery only for it to fail at the manufacturing level or in the short term. Remember how bad ni-cad batteries were but evetyone was using them until lithium started being used but it took a long time.

 

[dbsb3233]

I just dont see PHEV being that worthwhile. While i understand it helps alleviate range anxeity and the switchover to BEV easier i feel like its a more expensive more complicated vehicle that long term, can be more expensive due to repairs. I compare it to our heating systems here in Canada. You can go oil, you can go dual energy (oil-electric combo), or just electric. Many who switched to straight electric found that long term it was cheaper and better and i feel the same applies to the EV's

The difference there though is that there's not really a significant functional gain to go hybrid for home heating like there is with an automobile. That's the main reason for PHEV - to be able to go further and more places (with fast refueling) without being dependent on sparse charging options, while still putting most miles on electric around home. Win-win. And also save a lot of money on purchase price because batteries are so expensive.

It's also a much more plausible sell for the typical car buyer, allowing more total miles driven to go on electric faster.

As batteries get far better (range and charge times), and the charging network has far better coverage, the advantages of PHEV will fade in favor of BEVs for more buyers. But that's probably a 10-15 year horizon.

 

[Billyk24]

The difference there though is that there's not really a significant functional gain to go hybrid for home heating like there is with an automobile. That's the main reason for PHEV - to be able to go further and more places (with fast refueling) without being dependent on sparse charging options, while still putting most miles on electric around home. Win-win. And also save a lot of money on purchase price because batteries are so expensive.

It's also a much more plausible sell for the typical car buyer, allowing more total miles driven to go on electric faster.

As batteries get far better (range and charge times), and the charging network has far better coverage, the advantages of PHEV will fade in favor of BEVs for more buyers. But that's probably a 10-15 year horizon.

Stated it correctly. When one is headed for a nearly 200 mile modern DCFC range hole in the colder upper Midwestern states, a BEV is going to be a hard sell for the only vehicle in the household.

 

[kdryden99]

follow the money-all 3.3 billion:


Jagdeep Singh started a company called QuantumScape that’s using solid-state technology for their batteries.

Thanks to immediate valuation from investors like Bill Gates, QuantumScape is now worth $3.3 billion, and major backers Volkswagen have already committed to using Singh’s technology in their next generation of EVs in 2024.

https://cen.acs.org/energy/energy-storage-/Solid-state-batteries-power/98/i40

I think the 2024 estimate is way to ambitious. When SSD hard drives were first touted in the mid 2000's it took over 10 years to get over the issues. I suspect solid state batteries to be the same.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

Everyone can try to build their own batteries but with shortages im sure resources will be hoarded.


I agree 100% but right now companies are rushing to buy batteries and build asap to meet Europes requirements and I think EV demand is starting to grow to the point where demand might be higher than supply, for quality vehicles especially not the ecoboxes. So I dont see price drops for the next 5 years.
The next 5 years will be ver important to the OEM's becsuse we will see who adapted and will survive ( Ford, Tesla, Nissan, GM, Vw...) and who will fall behind (Toyota, Honda, FCA...)

According to many EV You Tubers channel in the last 10 years prices for car battery went down quite a bit, just think of the size and price of a 2011 Nissan Leaf battery pack compare to the size and price of one today.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

According to many scientists and experts solid state batteries are not feasible. I know many believe 5yrs but we know how tech works it takes much longer than expected.

https://insideevs.com/news/443450/ex-tesla-solid-state-batteries-false-hope/
https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...es-quietly-grow-bets-on-solid-state-batteries

I'm sorry not true and those batteries used by Mercedes are build in Quebec.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...world-first-solid-state-batteries-in-city-bus

 

[Raymondjram]

. $50K-$60K is still too expensive to sell a massive amount of for something with the size and functionality of a compact CUV, and you can still get something like a CR-V or RAV-4 for ~$30K.

I keep my vehicles for at least ten years (and most have been with me for over twenty) then I resell then, so I will only buy a great U.S. brand vehicle that can really last, instead of disposible Import cheap junk, sich as the CR-V or RAV4. My wife has a 2009 Chevy Equinox that still looks and runs as new, yet my neighbor across the street has gone through three Toyotas (including a RAV4). The Equinox cost more than one Toyota at purchase but is worth more than three Toyotas in the same eleven years.

The Ford Mustang Mach-E is extremely better engineered and will last longer, yet cost much less in the long term than the imports you mentioned.

Support U.S. brands and never recommend any import because price is never the best factor.

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