Ford hits the brakes on $12 billion in EV spending in KY

[dbsb3233]

Well, for solid state those things are mostly “hopes and wishes” still at this point.

As far as we know, zero people on the planet have built a solid state battery large enough and cheap enough and reliable enough to power a car. Not even at the working prototype level, yet billions of dollars are chasing this dream.

In my opinion, the target for all these numbers is about 50%.

Half the weight
Half the price
Half the charging time

I just don’t know that any of those are possible, let alone all 3 at once.

Supposedly China has a sodium ion solid state battery ready to go and has a concept car in the works, but it's still a wait-and-see on how real that actually is. So much of this stuff turns out to be vaporware.

But yes, the whole world is working on solid state battery tech, and not just for EV applications. A comment earlier pointed to it being an auto manufacturer responsibility but battery tech goes WAY beyond just EV applications. Universities, companies, even governments are working on advancing battery tech. On the automaker front, Ford and BMW have been partnered with Solid Power for years (a company in my area). VW is partnered with QuantumScape. Mercedes with Pro-Logium. Toyota with a Panasonic subsidiary. And so on.

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[Blue highway]

The narative in the general media is that EV sales are slowing down... that is simply wrong.

EV sales in the US, Europe, and China are all up. When October monthly sales are released, the overall monthly EV sales will set another record. EV sales as a segment are growing much faster than the overall industry... EVERYWHERE.

What is happening is that 2 years ago there were a small handful of EV choices. Now there are around 50 in the US. Most auto makers had decided they would be first catch this market and have rushed product and capacity to market.

Now we have an over supply at the same time sales are higher every month despite very high interest rates. There has to be fairly high volumes for any car to be profitable because of the crazy high fixed costs in auto manufacturing.

The over reaction that Everybody wanted an EV two years ago was wrong... The reaction today that Nobody wants an EV is also wrong.

Prediction - in 2024 overall EV sales will increase every month vs a year ago in the US, Europe, and China...again, and the voice that Nobody wants them will still be the narative in the media.

Can legacy companies make money on EVs? yeah, late in their gen 2 car cycle... not yet.

 

[dbsb3233]

The narative in the general media is that EV sales are slowing down... that is simply wrong.

Yeah, "slowing down" needs perspective. It really just means slower than the accelerating growth rate previously anticipated.

It's a lot like how some said (and still claim) that inflation is "down". No, it's still going way up, it's just not going up quite as fast as it was last year.

 

[Mach1E]

Yeah, "slowing down" needs perspective. It really just means slower than the accelerating growth rate previously anticipated.

It's a lot like how some said (and still claim) that inflation is "down". No, it's still going way up, it's just not going up quite as fast as it was last year.

It’s more than just that.

Overall sales are up, and they’re growing at a slower pace like you said.

But my bet is sales per model are down and trending worse (because the number of new models being introduced exceeds the growth of the total market).

And unfortunately for the BEV market, the last number (sales per model) is the most important for manufacturers because that’s where the incentive and profits lie.

Too many people rushing to market in the same small niche equals a bloodbath and in the near future, more and more EV projects will likely get scaled back, delayed, or cut altogether for these reasons.

Like weren’t we supposed to have a Lincoln version of the Mach E in 2022? Haven’t heard much of anything about that recently.

 

[dbsb3233]

It’s more than just that.

Overall sales are up, and they’re growing at a slower pace like you said.

But my bet is sales per model are down and trending worse (because the number of new models being introduced exceeds the growth of the total market).

And unfortunately for the BEV market, the last number (sales per model) is the most important for manufacturers because that’s where the incentive and profits lie.

Too many people rushing to market in the same small niche equals a bloodbath and in the near future, more and more EV projects will likely get scaled back, delayed, or cut altogether for these reasons.

Like weren’t we supposed to have a Lincoln version of the Mach E in 2022? Haven’t heard much of anything about that recently.

I don't think it's quite that bad. For instance, here's Ford's 3Q sales report by model:

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/...US/2023/10/04/Q3 2023 Sales Final Release.pdf

EV sales are still up YoY, but only by 14%. That's well below the expectations many have for US 30-50% EV growth overall. But much of the growth-slowing can be applied to the entire auto market: very high interest rates... High inflation... choppy economy... vehicles lasting longer than they used to...

There are more EV models being introduced every year, but they're still in fairly modest volumes. Only 4.2% of Ford's sales are EV, for instance. Most EVs sold are still Teslas.

 

[Mach1E]

I don't think it's quite that bad. For instance, here's Ford's 3Q sales report by model:

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2023/10/04/Q3 2023 Sales Final Release.pdf

EV sales are still up YoY, but only by 14%. That's well below the expectations many have for US 30-50% EV growth overall. But much of the growth-slowing can be applied to the entire auto market: very high interest rates... High inflation... choppy economy... vehicles lasting longer than they used to...

There are more EV models being introduced every year, but they're still in fairly modest volumes. Only 4.2% of Ford's sales are EV, for instance. Most EVs sold are still Teslas.

It’s not universal, but more talking about sales as a whole.

Tesla is the largest piece of the pie and despite even deeper price cuts compared to earlier this year, their sales per model are down compared to earlier this year.

Other models are brand new, so they’re technically up.

But the number I’m really talking about would be calculated like this:

Total BEV sales
divided by
Number of BEV models

And that number seems to be trending down.

Not the real numbers, but it could look like this-

scenario 1- 1 million sold, 10 models. = 100,000 per model

Scenario 2- 2 million sold, 40 models = 50,000 per model.

Scenario 2 is better for the BEV market as a whole, but scenario 1 is better for each manufacturer trying to make profits.

 

[woody]

Ford has invested into solid state batteries via multi million dollar infusion into an usa company. VW is currently testing QS solid state batteries. These solid state batteries are suppose to be less weight, smaller size, more energy dense, faster charging and tolerate greater number of charge discharge cycles. A brighter future could be possible for all of us. Many components for this pucture that also need improvement.

That is what solid state is.
The point is why so late and still far behind.

 

[dbsb3233]

That is what solid state is.
The point is why so late and still far behind.

It's not late. This isn't something that would just become reality by throwing some money at it in the 80's, or 90's, or 00's, or 10's. Battery breakthroughs (like most technical breakthroughs) happen when they happen (sometimes by accident, sometimes from a brilliant mind, sometimes when one of 100's of research teams around the world end up trying just the right combination of things that work). Sometimes never. It's only been the last 10 years or so that battery tech advanced far enough to come up with 300 miles of range in a popular size vehicle. True viability for EVs for the masses really only started at that point. And a decade+ of charging infrastructure was needed for millions to actually use them in the US.

Tesla started sooner, yes. Because EVs are the only product they make. So they had to try and come up with battery tech (like their 4680's which are kinda flopping). Their entire business depended on it. Ford's wasn't. GM's wasn't. It didn't make sense for them to gamble the whole company on EVs like Tesla, because they already had (and will have for another decade) thriving auto manufacturing operations to sustain.

Only when EVs looked like a viable upcoming business to gradually branch into did they start investing in it. Which makes perfect sense.

 

[Logal727]

I joined the forum back in September to get and understanding of MME ownership. I test drove a MME SR RWD at the beginning of September. I'm a Ford enthusiast with 9 Fords under my belt since 1978 (including 4 Pintos...). I just bought a Gen 6 Bronco in 2022 after waiting nearly two years and through all the production drama being a Bronco Reservationist brought. I was looking at the MME to replace one of my cars (in a fleet of 5) that is 17 years old and 400,000+ miles on the clock (not a Ford).

I love the MME design and find the build quality quite impressive for the price point. The driving dynamics are excellent as well. But, after learning of the MME being inflicted with the HVBJB failure and having poor LVB charging management, I see these as questionable engineering design issues, and to me they make the rest of the design suspect. The recent revelation that the door popper can get out of sync with the locking system just extends that concern. The MME is an engineering over-reach in several of areas and a poor engineering execution in areas that are key to operability.

But the key deal breaker is charging. Yup, I can easily charge at home and install my own L2 ESVE; I already have a 240V 50-amp circuit in my garage for my welder. However, based on the numerous stories regarding public charging on road trips I've read here on the forum, I just can't make the swap to EV. Why spend nearly $50K for a vehicle that only gets you 175 miles from home (on a perfect 70-degree day). I knew public charging wasn't ideal, but people arguing over use of a 150 KW charger vs. a 350 KW? Needing 4 different apps to find a working charger? Meticulously planning fuel stops as if you are a general aviation pilot? Adding 3 + hours daily to a long-distance road trip? Assume a near 50% mileage drop in winter just to a have safe range buffer? Whew!

Yet every product design has flaws, and systems have operability issues; it is the owner's decision to accept them. But asking to accept such flaws on vehicle with limited range and lengthy recharge times and no cost savings is a bit much to ask. IMO.

It's really not that hard, the time you took to write this post you could have read up on how to do it and plan accordingly, it's not even that much more planning involved, but whatever, people can be kinda lazy or just don't want to adapt. To each their own.

 

[Gloff]

I'm just going to print this out and frame it for my desk.

And it's not really even "fault". The dealership is the retailer. Like any retailer, it's their job to get as much as they can out of a sale, just like it's the job of buyers to pay as little as they can in a sale. Market price is where those two meet.

If dealers are consistently making sales above MSRP, it means the manufacturer didn't set the MSRP high enough. Ford doesn't like ADM because it means they screwed up and set the MSRP too low, and they're leaving money on the table that the market is willing to pay.

Ford just tested the EV market with the incentives in August/Sept. We were turning Mach E like crazy with 0%, now they're stagnant (despite the rebates).

In a high MSRP environment EV buyers are rate conscious, offering discounted financing and good lease terms worked effectively to turn the existing inventory. The Mach E is good value at the standard range levels, and the lease and finance deals accelerated the purchasing timeframe for a lot of buyers. I think we'll see something again soon for Mach E, probably not 0% though.

As for Lightning, the standard range Lariat is a steal with the 7500 rebate (and the 7500 tax credit to boot!) Even XLTs are cheaper than a gas version with similar equipment. If I needed a full size, I'd pull the trigger on an XLT for sure.

Aside from all that, EVERYONE is building EVs right now. We've reached mass market relevance and the demand is still strong. There's a large number of players and now buyers are shopping and comparing like normal vehicle lines. It's not limited to just Tesla anymore. Mach E, Ioniq, EV6, EQB, ID.4, Model Y, Ariya, BZ4X, Solterra, iX, etc... The EV SUV segment is as competitive as the small crossover segment is.

 

[Blue highway]

50% US market share (new sales) by 2030 is quite a bit slower than many are expecting, especially some governments that have been pushing ICE bans. But I'd say that's a fairly realistic target for BEVs. I still think PHEVs and other hybrids are likely to see a boost this decade in order to meet certain restrictive government policies.

But the wildcard is always battery tech. If we see a quantum leap in battery tech (like a doubling of energy density, or half the price, etc) that actually becomes a mass production reality by like 2027, that changes the whole equation. If/when that happens, we're off to the races. But current batteries are still so expensive and so heavy for 300 mile range that it makes BEVs a lot more expensive than ICE or hybrid (purchase price alone), and money-losers for legacy manufacturers. That situation leaves us where we are now: legacy makers slowing down their EV path, and US EV adoption growth rates staying modest. There's a lot of production cost cutting needed to improve the economics (and that just got even tougher with much higher labor costs for the next 4.5 years).

Nah... Lithium batteries are already about what they will be for the next 10 years. LFP will be the norm. Energy density will be within 15% of what we have now per KG and volume. Evolution, not Revolution in battery tech is next.

there are other wildcards in my view.

Gas prices - $5 to $8 gas changes everything. (a war in the middle east is not that hard to imagine these days)

Keep in mind that 1 in 4 new cars sold today in California are BEVs.​

1 in 6 in OR and WA. Why so many early adopters in these states? Gas price a factor?​

​

Why so many "early adopters" in Europe 1 in 5 are EVs and China 1 in 3?​

DCFC - 2024 will be the year that the NEVI money gets spent and when the Tesla network opens up. I can imagine a world where DCFC does not suck... at least so much by mid 2025.

Government action - tax credits, subsidies, CAFE standards, gas taxes, etc... will all increasingly push EVs at the state level. This is not going to go away no matter who is in the white house.

In aggregate, EV sales will continue to go up even if some car companies can't make the transition. I can easily imagine a serious financial blood bath for legacy auto companies. The 2008 financial crisis bankrupted 2 of the big 3 car companies... the EV transition could do it again.

 

[dbsb3233]

Nah... Lithium batteries are already about what they will be for the next 10 years. LFP will be the norm. Energy density will be within 15% of what we have now per KG and volume. Evolution, not Revolution in battery tech is next.

there are other wildcards in my view.

Gas prices - $5 to $8 gas changes everything. (a war in the middle east is not that hard to imagine these days)

Keep in mind that 1 in 4 new cars sold today in California are BEVs.​

1 in 6 in OR and WA. Why so many early adopters in these states? Gas price a factor?​

​

Why so many "early adopters" in Europe 1 in 5 are EVs and China 1 in 3?​

DCFC - 2024 will be the year that the NEVI money gets spent and when the Tesla network opens up. I can imagine a world where DCFC does not suck... at least so much by mid 2025.

Government action - tax credits, subsidies, CAFE standards, gas taxes, etc... will all increasingly push EVs at the state level. This is not going to go away no matter who is in the white house.

In aggregate, EV sales will continue to go up even if some car companies can't make the transition. I can easily imagine a serious financial blood bath for legacy auto companies. The 2008 financial crisis bankrupted 2 of the big 3 car companies... the EV transition could do it again.

Oh EV sales (market share) will absolutely continue to go up at the expensive of ICE. I don't think anyone is suggesting they will actually LOSE market share. What I (and I think most) are talking about is the growth rate not being as exponential as many hoped/expected. I suspect ICE/hybrid market share in the US will remain the majority for at least another 5-8 years. And even at just 50%, that's still a lot of ICE vehicle sales. I expect legacy to mostly track the overall market share ratios with their models (ICE vs EV), minus some (since players like Tesla will remain 100% EV). Lots of battery plants coming online in the next 3 years, which will take production up a few notches.

But they have to get those costs lower to reach deeper down into the market, to the people that just can't afford a $50k vehicle. Otherwise it will remain a rather split market.

As demand slows (some) for gas, that's likely to cause downward price pressure, not upward. Supply and demand.

 

[Blue highway]

Oh EV sales (market share) will absolutely continue to go up at the expensive of ICE. I don't think anyone is suggesting they will actually LOSE market share. What I (and I think most) are talking about is the growth rate not being as exponential as many hoped/expected. I suspect ICE/hybrid market share in the US will remain the majority for at least another 5-8 years. And even at just 50%, that's still a lot of ICE vehicle sales. I expect legacy to mostly track the overall market share ratios with their models (ICE vs EV), minus some (since players like Tesla will remain 100% EV). Lots of battery plants coming online in the next 3 years, which will take production up a few notches.

But they have to get those costs lower to reach deeper down into the market, to the people that just can't afford a $50k vehicle. Otherwise it will remain a rather split market.

As demand slows (some) for gas, that's likely to cause downward price pressure, not upward. Supply and demand.

gotcha - I think we will exceed 50% by 2030 (6+years from now) primarily because the year on year industry growth is tracking that way. 10 states already exceed 10% EV share and transitions tend to carry on or accelerate once that level is reached

(example... Europe, China, US EV market share adoption curve looks the same just offset by a few years)

we will see

 

[Mach1E]

gotcha - I think we will exceed 50% by 2030 (6+years from now) primarily because the year on year industry growth is tracking that way. 10 states already exceed 10% EV share and transitions tend to carry on or accelerate once that level is reached

(example... Europe, China, US EV market share adoption curve looks the same just offset by a few years)

we will see

Europe and China are very different car markets though. More crowded, more expensive fuel, lower income (China), better infrastructure for travel (less need to road trip in Europe).

The types of cars that are popular there have always been a bit different.

I remember in 08 when I visited Europe it seemed half the cars in the road were tiny Smart cars. ?

 

[WSoxFan22]

1. I'm happy with my Mach e but...
2. There's no way it would be my only car...
3. I won't take my family on a road trip in it because I don't want to endure all the drama about finding chargers that work, waiting my turn, and then waiting to finish charging.

So I get the reluctance... but as a second car? Pretty fun little driving machine.

These takes are wild to me.

I've never had any of these issues charging when driving anywhere long enough to have to charge. Maybe others are going longer distances constantly but I might take 1 or 2 long drives a year. Meanwhile I save 15 minutes every 400 miles when I don't have to go to a gas station.

Seems to me that I'm saving way more time in the long run. It's my only car and I'm amazed how many people (assuming they can charge at home) have such an issue with a few extra minutes a couple long trips a year.

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