Ford reports Q4 earnings and Farley reveals new small affordable EV Platform being developed by skunkworks team

[SWO]

I agree the real threats are Tesla, the Chinese, and Fords cost structure. Ford needs a Chevy Bolt like car the size of the MME (Americans like big cars... duh) that costs 2/3 as much... that could actually be produced at a profit. Which is a lot harder than it sounds.

And that is the hurdle...
To make money a manufacturer has to use gigacastings (take parts out) build with little labor cost (automate and use cheap labor) and get tax benefits in the US. If you miss a development generation you don't catch back up.

The MME is really excellent car... but to sell in big numbers it has to cost $10K less... and without massive de-contenting that is not going to happen.

The growing chants from the morons Luddites that think that ICE cars are the future of the US auto industry are a problem... If GM and Ford don't execute really well with EVs, they will not be in business in 10 years. All we will have is Tesla, the Chinese brands, and a few niche high end cars from Europe...

Your chart is from 2 years ago. How did those 2023 forecasts work out?

As for the Chinese, I think that keeping them out of the US might one of the few issues both sides of the aisle agree on. Plus we're already seeing that fox loose in the hen house over in Europe.

Also, I think we might see an insurance revolt against "gigacastings." They make a car cheaper, but also essentially disposable which is bad for consumers.

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[Blue highway]

Your chart is from 2 years ago. How did those 2023 forecasts work out?

As for the Chinese, I think that keeping them out of the US might one of the few issues both sides of the aisle agree on. Plus we're already seeing that fox loose in the hen house over in Europe.

Also, I think we might see an insurance revolt against "gigacastings." They make a car cheaper, but also essentially disposable which is bad for consumers.

see the chart and a bunch more here: From December 2023... actuals are generally beating estimates at an industry wide level... specific car companies... not so much.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661659-ev-company-news-for-the-month-of-december-2023

The main take-aways are that the growth of EVs at the expense of ICE cars is much more pronounced in China and Europe than in the US, but the growth curves are the same...

The Chinese are killing the European car makers... in 5-6 years they could be past the point of no return... we shall see...

Keeping the Chinese out of the US auto industry is going to be mostly futile without entity targeted tariffs... because a car consists of hundreds of parts which are independently sourced... the expensive parts, battery, motor, controllers etc... can be built by Chinese company's in near shore locations where we have trade deals... Mexico... Canada etc.

 

[mkhuffman]

If all that remains are Chinese owned car companies, I guess I will be walking. There is no freaking way I am giving the CCP my money and my data.

I will restore an an old ICE Mustang and drive that instead. No data, no CCP.

 

[thekat03]

There is demand for small affordable EVs, and for roomier but more affordable EVs. My brother just got a Kona Electric, and my neighbor traded in her Prius C for an extended range Leaf big enough to hold rear-facing carseats for the grandbabies while still putting her dog in the back. I hope we continue to see more practical little hatchbacks with decent range, because I think they'll be popular.

 

[1969Camaro]

4th Quarter Earnings:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/ford-f-q4-2023-earnings.html

Small EV Platform developed by Ford EV skunkworks team:
https://insideevs.com/news/707658/ford-cheap-ev-platform-farley/#:~:text=A small "skunkworks" team within,Jim Farley said on Tuesday.&text=A small team within Ford,Jim Farley said on Tuesday.

Hope it's not too small. Yes, EV prices definetly need to come down, but U.S. consumers really don't like small cars, witness the demise of small gas vehicles available in the U.S. People like their space, options, and technology.

 

[1969Camaro]

Develop a plug-in hybrid with 50 miles of range on all electric and 400 miles on fuel and Ford wouldn't be able to build enough of them.

 

[TheVirtualTim]

I would love a plug-in hybrid Maverick and it looks like it would be easy to do (I have two neighbors that own Mavericks and I've checked them out. There appears to be plenty of space under the back seat for a larger battery pack.)

But somehow I don't think that's what Ford will do (it would be nice though).

If it's a new sub-compact they could bring back the Focus in an all-electric version.

 

[1969Camaro]

I would love a plug-in hybrid Maverick and it looks like it would be easy to do (I have two neighbors that own Mavericks and I've checked them out. There appears to be plenty of space under the back seat for a larger battery pack.)

But somehow I don't think that's what Ford will do (it would be nice though).

If it's a new sub-compact they could bring back the Focus in an all-electric version.

I'd buy a plug-in mavrick today if it was available. Until infrastructure is mature plug-in's are the way to go.

 

[PupSideDown]

Ford gave up on coupes long ago (the Mustang excepted), so I'm thinking something in the realm of a Ranger or Maverick BEV. There might also be a bolt-sized compact CUV, but we'll have to see.

A few years back, before my horses aged out of competitions, when I was still hauling a horse trailer around the country, I needed an F-250. But if I could get a little Ranger BEV, like they used to build back in the early 2000s, I'd buy one.

 

[mccdeuce]

*some* people would prefer smaller, less expensive vehicles with less tech. I am hoping its a lot of people...

there is such a huge gap between what 'we' WANT and what we NEED for basic, even fun, transportation for daily driving.

I would be one of those people!

I love walking around the parking lot at work and seeing all these massive pick up trucks with hitches that have never been used or Jeep Wranglers that have never been off road in their life

And there are tons of sedans and hatchbacks still out on the road. Ford needs to build an affordable EV to take their place.

 

[voxel]

Hope it's not too small. Yes, EV prices definetly need to come down, but U.S. consumers really don't like small cars, witness the demise of small gas vehicles available in the U.S. People like their space, options, and technology.

They do... but carmakers are addicted to high margin trucks and SUVs (soon to be their downfall because these are stacking up on lots).

What consumers don't seem to care about is... sedans.

 

[bp99]

Small cars are a small market. Safety regulations have changed so much, that we often require more space just to meet them. Infant carriers, rear facing child seats, etc. You can't just toss your kids and dog in the rear of a station wagon or pickup any more.

While you might see large vehicles sitting in an office parking lot that drove one person to the office, it does not mean that before/after work and on weekends, that large vehicle doesn't have other demands placed on it.

Here's my car size timeline:

• High school/college - Everyone is young and flexible. Somehow you can squeeze 10 people in a compact car.
• After college - Rarely more than one passenger. Just need room for the dog. Compact/sports car is big enough
• Home owner - need cargo capacity for yard stuff, furnishings, projects, etc
• Married - Now have these older humans called in laws that are not very flexible. Need to have enough leg room in the back seat for them (with 6'+ tall people in the front)
• New parents - The baby carrier needs more rear seat room than a full sized adult while still having a 6'+ tall person in the front seat. With a second child, you need space behind both front seats and can't use the center. Also need enough room in the trunk for the large stroller + anything you're buying while shopping
• Toddlers - need a rear facing seat. Takes almost as much room as the baby carrier
• Post toddler - need a front facing seat. Since it raises the seat level up, they need to have leg room where the front seats aren't designed to give leg room
• Booster seat - Finally, the kids can fit in most any rear seat. But they now need trunk space for their activities
• Kids are now old enough for vacations - need enough trunk space to fit 4 full sized suitcases to get to/from the airport (the MME does not fit 4 in the back)
• Teenage kids - as tall as adults. If they're going someplace with the parents, they're suddenly not as flexible as if they were in a car with their friends. They want adult sized leg room.

I tend to see a lot of the calls for smaller cars (even going so far as to call for banning large cars) coming from young adults. People that have not gone through certain stages in life where perspectives change along with your needs. There's a lot of tunnel vision of 'if I don't need that, why would anyone else?'.

 

[mkhuffman]

They do... but carmakers are addicted to high margin trucks and SUVs (soon to be their downfall because these are stacking up on lots).

What consumers don't seem to care about is... sedans.

You sort make it sound like it is the automaker's fault when all they are doing is building what people want. If people wanted small vehicles they would make them.

Personally I don't like small vehicles. My MME is about as small as I want to go. Unless it is a sports car. Or a Lucid. Then maybe I would do smaller.

 

[Billyk24]

Develop a plug-in hybrid with 50 miles of range on all electric and 400 miles on fuel and Ford wouldn't be able to build enough of them.

Toyota Rav4 Prime is almost what you stated.

 

[apwelsh]

I feel like then next car sneeds to be a Focus EV, & a Fiesta EV. These models are proven to sell, and are just the right size for people just starting out and for young families. But for EV to be taken seriously by ICE lovers, the cars need to fast charge in half the time and get 200/400+ miles on a full charge (for sub-compact/compact) coupled with a sub-30k price tag for the later. Someone on minimum wage should be able to afford an EV. In California, the min wage is $16/hr for 2024 — just over $32k/yr. A healthy budget should not be more than 10% of income (15-20% for total car expenses). If we assume power and maintenance are a small factor now, then we can safely allocate 15% — that gives the buyer $4800/yr for car expenses. A vehicle should never be financed more than 3 years, or an argument could be made that you cannot afford that vehicle. Let’s just assume 0% interest, that would mean for a car to be affordable, a person making min wage can only afford a $14.5k vehicle.
Double min wage, someone making $64k/year can only really afford a $29k vehicle. So, sub-compacts need to cost around $14-16k is pushing the budget to it limits, and a compact should be just under or around $30k.
I don’t think Ford can afford to do this. Some imports are getting close

https://www.greencars.com/expert-insights/most-affordable-electric-cars

incentive rebates won’t be around forever, so I am not accounting for them.

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