Production will probably be delayed.

[mark360]

To put it into perspective, 650,000 Americans die each year of heart disease.
-600,000 from cancer

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[timbop]

The fatality rate for the elderly is 15%. If you are under the age of 60, it's pretty much impossible for you to die from COVID-19 virus. Elderly need to stay inside their home, no one else.

The people that do die from it already have health complications and thus where the .2%-3% come from. If you are a healthy individual, with no major health conditions the Virus is no worse than the common cold.

A quick fact I want to point out is that 1 in every 100 people are psychopaths. 1% of our population has a serious mental condition, it can be mild or it can be clinical. Just imagine with that alone, how many people out of 100 have some sort of auto-immune disease or health issue no matter what age.

The elderly always have a high risk of dieing from the Flu and is also why there are 30,000+ deaths each year in the USA from the flu virus. Majority of those are older adults that contract pneumonia. This is no different than the flu, except the elderly don't have a vaccine.

So what's you're solution for those over 50? Keeping my modest 10% infection rate with no intervention, that would still leave 60,000 50-59 year olds, 133,000 60-69 year olds, 180,000 70-79 year olds, and 187,000 80+ year olds dead for a total of 560,000.

 

[timbop]

Median Age in USA is 38 years of age, so that means .2% of people would die. 330,000,000 x .2% = 660,000 max if every single person got it.

That is not how statistics work.

 

[mark360]

That is not how statistics work.

Lol, of course not but go through the effort of finding out how many americans are in each age bracket and get back to me. The number is close enough IMO. Report came out that now they believe the fatality rate is much lower than they originally thought...

You have to know your own body, if you are very healthy then you'll be fine. A Virus has to be fought off on it's own with your body. Nothing else you can really do except be vaccinated. More likely to die from some other disease or car crash than die from this virus.

 

[timbop]

• 43 million aged 50-59 * .013 = 600,000
• 37 million aged 60-69 * .036 = 1,332,000
• 22 million aged 70-79 * .08 = 1,760,000
• 12 million aged 80+ * .148 = 1,776,000

 

[mark360]

And who says every person will get it? The virus doesn't even live in hot climates, so rule out Florida's population and Texas. Only half of the country would likely even get the virus. Look up the flu numbers.

Now we're talking even less people dieing, maybe 300,000 max.

 

[timbop]

Lol, of course not but go through the effort of finding out how many americans are in each age bracket and get back to me. The number is close enough IMO. Report came out that now they believe the fatality rate is much lower than they originally thought...

You have to know your own body, if you are very healthy then you'll be fine. A Virus has to be fought off on it's own with your body. Nothing else you can really do except be vaccinated. More likely to die from some other disease or car crash than die from this virus.

I already did but you didn't read it:

Keeping my modest 10% infection rate with no intervention, that would still leave 60,000 50-59 year olds, 133,000 60-69 year olds, 180,000 70-79 year olds, and 187,000 80+ year olds dead for a total of 560,000.

 

[mark360]

I already did but you didn't read it:

Thanks for the clarification, still nothing compared to heart disease or cancer. Like I said, it just came out that the mortality rate isn't near as high as they originally thought. The numbers came from China's population which has a lower life expectancy, and many public sanitary issues.

No need for panic, you won't die or know anyone that dies from it

 

[Billyk24]

Depends on the industry. Many of them are coming to a standstill, while many others will keep going. Anyone in restaurant, hotel, casino, airline, sports, entertainment, school, or any other operation that involves public gatherings will probably be sitting at home for a while. And that's just a partial list.

Take out services mean restaurants, gas stations with food/drinks continue to operate as does McDonalds. Schools moved to on-line operation. Hotels are still open.

 

[dbsb3233]

The death rate of the Corona Virus is 2%, and the number is only that high/skewed for people over 70 years old where the death rate is 15%.

Certainly true about the age profile. But I think those raw death rates are all significantly inflated right now because we're surely way underestimating the # of people that have it. I'm betting that 2% death rate really ends up being somewhere down in the 0.1%-1% range after we get much better at modeling how many people really get it (and don't die).

Just like the flu, the aged/weakened/vulnerable population accounts for the overwhelming majority of the deaths. When someone in that population contracts just about anything (COVID-19, influenza, pneumonia, etc), it's often the proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back". In other words, they're dying mostly because they're aged/weakened/vulnerable.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Detroit will clean more, exercise social distance, not shut down.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uaw-automakers-agree-clean-auto-015300192.html

 

[dbsb3233]

Take out services mean restaurants, gas stations with food/drinks continue to operate as does McDonalds. Schools moved to on-line operation. Hotels are still open.

Partial, yes, but not most. Take restaurants for example. Fast food restaurants will mostly stay open. But most sit-down restaurants will not. A few will try to get by serving take-out but I betcha most of those will quickly find that they won't get anywhere near the volume of take-out sales to justify the costs of staying open. Most will just close for a month (or however long the goverment order stays in place).

I saw an interview with the CEO of Hilton yesterday. He said their occupation rate has plummeted to 15%. Never been anywhere close to that low before. And it's likely not just for a month. The travel industry is gonna take many months to recover as the public will be slow to feel it's safe to start booking trips again. The hotels won't shut down completely but they'll be scaling way back. Don't need nearly as many housekeepers and reservation agents when business goes in the tank. Etc etc etc.

 

[dbsb3233]

So you're saying the aged/weakened/vulnerable population DOESN'T account for the overwhelming majority of the deaths??? Where are you getting that impression from?

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