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Ken7

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You are absolutely right. This is what we should have done. The models to watch are really Singapore, Iceland, and South Korea.

Because Singapore acted fast, used rapid and aggressive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine they have kept their case rate down without closing schools or shutting down businesses (while the article says bars were not shut down that has now changed with non-work/school gatherings over 10 people banned). The South Korea story is similar. Singapore is so far ahead of the curve that they just sent 40,000 test kits to the Philippines. Sorry, it's too late for us to institute the Singapore model across the US. That requires early action for prevention. We screwed that pooch weeks ago. Lack of US Federal actions eliminated the ability to use prevention and containment. Now all we have to use nationally is the last step, mitigation. If we lock down interstate transportation, we could institute the Singapore model in low population, low incident parts of the US but we lack the numbers of trained medical personnel to do that.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...coronavirus-quarantine-measures/#3d1530481921
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200324131843.htm
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30162-6/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30190-0/fulltext
So just out of curiosity, at whose feet would you lay the blame for what you’re saying is a ‘lack of US federal action’.
 

ChasingCoral

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How do we get the US out of the covid-19 mess we've gotten ourselves into? For Detroit, Cuautitlan, and the rest of our manufacturing to get back to business, we need a robust, two-stage testing. This requires testing everyone. The articles cited below discuss the need for both infection testing (what we are doing now) and serological testing (testing for antibodies in the blood). Here's how that works:
1) If you show any symptoms, you get tested for infection. If you recover from infection you are likely immune to the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes Covid-19). You can go to work once you have two negative infection tests after having had a positive test.
2) If you test positive in serological testing, it indicates you have antibodies in your blood that confer immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. You may have had a mild response that you dismissed or may have been completely asymptomatic. You also may have recovered from a major infection but had not been tested. Anyone who is well and tests positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 can also go back to work.

Any of these workers who have been "cleared" for work do not have to stop work due to a reported case. Cleared workers do not have to telework, and do not require social distancing. This will put America back to work. However, it requires the sort of leadership to act on the virus that has been lacking in the US so far.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/
 

ChasingCoral

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So just out of curiosity, at whose feet would you lay the blame for what you’re saying is a ‘lack of US federal action’.
Let me ask you this instead: Please tell us who in the Federal government has taken the actions taken by countries like South Korea and Singapore? Who took action in February to make sure the testing was in place? Who in the Federal government ordered testing and contact tracing when the first clusters were appearing? If the answer is no one, then tell us who is responsible for making sure these actions are taken? By the way, the National Security Council had a 69 page plan entitled "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents". Whose office is responsible for acting on these plans?
 

Ken7

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So you’re blaming the CDC. You could just say it rather than beating around the bush.

Playbooks are wonderful, but they’re predicated on the assumption that the required supplies & equipment are in place. The US was never in that position. Never.

Look at NY. Totally unprepared too. In fact we had the NY health commissioner here encouraging people in early February to attend parades, enjoy theaters and get out and have fun. This ‘virus thing’ was not a problem. I watched it.
 

Billyk24

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2020 USA flu cases: 222,000 positive, 22,000 flu deaths via this link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...vid-19-cases-and-41-deaths-in-us-this-season/ the CDC link might show something different: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

at what point do you mandate closing off travel, shelter in homes, closing of businesses for any public health concerns? Is this going to become a yearly issue where the UAW/businesses/schools might as well mandate a 4 week shutdown during the winter months?
 
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Sweetwater

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Yes it has gotten out of hand. Very sorry to say "It is not half way there yet."
Ohio numbers are low. Our Governor implemented a strict shut down and
stay at home policy early on. I do believe this has helped our state so far.
 

Billyk24

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How do we get the US out of the covid-19 mess we've gotten ourselves into? For Detroit, Cuautitlan, and the rest of our manufacturing to get back to business, we need a robust, two-stage testing. This requires testing everyone. The articles cited below discuss the need for both infection testing (what we are doing now) and serological testing (testing for antibodies in the blood). Here's how that works:
1) If you show any symptoms, you get tested for infection. If you recover from infection you are likely immune to the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes Covid-19). You can go to work once you have two negative infection tests after having had a positive test.
2) If you test positive in serological testing, it indicates you have antibodies in your blood that confer immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. You may have had a mild response that you dismissed or may have been completely asymptomatic. You also may have recovered from a major infection but had not been tested. Anyone who is well and tests positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 can also go back to work.

Any of these workers who have been "cleared" for work do not have to stop work due to a reported case. Cleared workers do not have to telework, and do not require social distancing. This will put America back to work. However, it requires the sort of leadership to act on the virus that has been lacking in the US so far.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/
There has been reliability issues with test kits. The famous doctor in China that got muzzled by the government after warning others about the human to human transmission method, got tested multiple times (five If I am correct) and finally tested positive on his sixth.
 

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2020 USA flu cases: 222,000 positive, 22,000 flu deaths via this link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...vid-19-cases-and-41-deaths-in-us-this-season/ the CDC link might show something different: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

at what point do you mandate closing off travel, shelter in homes, closing of businesses for any public health concerns? Is this going to become a yearly issue where the UAW/businesses/schools might as well mandate a 4 week shutdown during the winter months?
Good question. Everyone will have many opinions about this. Do we shut down
for the flu ? And this is not just a flu. It spreads like "wild fire" to others very easy.
I do not want to see this happen again. I wake up every morning thinking this
was a dream. Then turn on TV to see how very real this is.
 

pbojanoski

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I feel like a broken record here, but this nation NEEDS to get back to work. We are learning and will continue to learn how best to keep ourselves from contracting the virus. We will continue to learn the best treatments. We will continue to work on a vaccination especially for those at high risk. But we need to be nimble as a country. There are areas and businesses that can operatewhile taking prudent action to keep people and employees safe. (Been to a supermarket lately? Are the workers there all dying of COVID-19?) This is not all or nothing. This is evaluate where we are in any given location and everyone do what is necessary to prudently protect themselves.

This economy must restart, slowly at first, but start nonetheless. A failed economy will make this virus seem like the good times. Let's go people. Let's rally around getting this country healthy and prosperous. This is no time to be scaring yourselves to death and hiding in your house. I assume the recent isolation has given us some time to prepare and figure out how to stay as safe as possible. That isolation will need to end in a responsible way and start soon.
 

pbojanoski

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Politicians. They all suck.
While I'm certainly not going to defend politicians, I think the blame game at this point is counterproductive and just political gamesmanship. We need to focus on moving forward. There will be plenty of time to discuss who to blame leading up to the November elections.
 

ChasingCoral

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2020 USA flu cases: 222,000 positive, 22,000 flu deaths via this link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...vid-19-cases-and-41-deaths-in-us-this-season/ the CDC link might show something different: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
As of 21 March, the CDC lists the following for the 2019-2020 influenza season statistics (since 29 September 2019, 25 weeks)
  • CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

What does this tell us about the flu
~1.6 million cases per week, on average
~960 deaths per week, on average
Case fatality rate (CFR) ~0.06%
Hospitalization fatality rate ~6%
Remember, the flu statistics are from near the end of the annual season with widespread testing ability. Covid-19 statistics are based on the early ramp-up of cases, so they will be conservative (low) compared to influenza.

As of early on 28 March, the US has reported

- 85,991 cases with a doubling rate of ~4 days and
- 1707 fatalities with a doubling rate of ~3 days
First recorded case had an onset date of 14 January, 10.5 weeks
That calculates out as:
~8190 cases per week, on average
~163 deaths per week, on average
Case fatality rate ~2%

Compared to seasonal influenza that makes Covid-19 approximately 33 times deadlier by reported CFR. Of course, the CFR for Covid-19 is probably much lower due to lack of testing, but there are likely many unattributed Covid-19 fatalities as well as many untested cases.

However, let's think about those doubling rates. Likely numbers a week from now will be:
~300,000 cases
~7,000 fatalities

a week later:
>1,000,000 cases
>30,000 deaths (more deaths in 12.5 weeks than 25 weeks of flu)

a week after that:
~4,000,000 cases
~150,000 deaths

Of course, we're not sure how long doubling will continue, especially considering social distancing.

Simple message: this is not the seasonal flu.
 

ChasingCoral

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So you’re blaming the CDC. You could just say it rather than beating around the bush.
Who does the CDC report to?
Who does the NSC report to?
That's where Federal leadership has to start. You can't copy the models of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, or any of the counties that have succeeded in keeping business going and keeping deaths down without leadership from the top of the Federal government. That leadership has to start long before it gets out of control.
 

pbojanoski

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As of 21 March, the CDC lists the following for the 2019-2020 influenza season statistics (since 29 September 2019, 25 weeks)
  • CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

What does this tell us about the flu
~1.6 million cases per week, on average
~960 deaths per week, on average
Case fatality rate (CFR) ~0.06%
Hospitalization fatality rate ~6%
Remember, the flu statistics are from near the end of the annual season with widespread testing ability. Covid-19 statistics are based on the early ramp-up of cases, so they will be conservative (low) compared to influenza.

As of early on 28 March, the US has reported

- 85,991 cases with a doubling rate of ~4 days and
- 1707 fatalities with a doubling rate of ~3 days
First recorded case had an onset date of 14 January, 10.5 weeks
That calculates out as:
~8190 cases per week, on average
~163 deaths per week, on average
Case fatality rate ~2%

Compared to seasonal influenza that makes Covid-19 approximately 33 times deadlier by reported CFR. Of course, the CFR for Covid-19 is probably much lower due to lack of testing, but there are likely many unattributed Covid-19 fatalities as well as many untested cases.

However, let's think about those doubling rates. Likely numbers a week from now will be:
~300,000 cases
~7,000 fatalities

a week later:
>1,000,000 cases
>30,000 deaths (more deaths in 12.5 weeks than 25 weeks of flu)

a week after that:
~4,000,000 cases
~150,000 deaths

Of course, we're not sure how long doubling will continue, especially considering social distancing.

Simple message: this is not the seasonal flu.
While I appreciate all the facts and speculation about the flu and the coronavirus. I don't think people here or in general are stating this is just the flu. I think we need to figure out how to move forward, not argue about where we've been. And there needs to be a plan other than huddle in your house until there are no more cases left in the world.
 



 










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