The EV Naysayers

[Vulnox]

Maybe storage batteries can be invented someday in your world.

Yeah, just add it to the list of things they don't know about beyond their front yard. Issues around solar/wind power generation limitations are already thought of and there are a variety of existing and potential future storage options (Gravity batteries, traditional batteries, grid interconnection which is already a thing that would allow east coast states to produce earlier for west coast, and west coast to produce for east coast) along with nuclear, hydro, etc to serve as well. A list of them are here: https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/s...es of Energy Storage,(fluids) with CSP plants.

We don't currently produce all our energy from goal fired plants, and the main generators at even those plants aren't enough to fully cover our energy usage which is why most large electricity producing plants have peaking generators that are less efficient but quick to spin up to help manage load.

A renewable based future would have similar ideas, primary load handlers during high requirement times like the middle of the day (when, shockingly, solar is most prevalent) and other supplemental sources for overnight or bad weather or whatever.

For as much as some in this thread complain about these supposed people that are pushing for things "right now", which I don't even see happening, the true problem are people in here that think because the answer isn't easy or immediate it seems we shouldn't bother or talk about it. I would absolutely take 100 hopeful people that want to do something even if it's hard or may not work out than 1000 that just want to point out what isn't available right this second and offer zero alternatives. We shouldn't change for the sake of change, but man people that think negativity is a replacement for effort are exhausting.

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[MW1515]

What do you think these folks are misinformed about? The people I talk to seem to know the true limitations of current battery technology. If anything, they don’t fully appreciate those limitations, and I’m happy to tell them.

And when you say “I'm happy to hear that you think that the transition to EVs is so inevitable that in 10 years none of the current limitations will matter” you kind of have that backwards. What I think is that in ten years the current limitations won’t exist, which will make our current teething issues and barriers to transition obsolete. See the difference?

Here are some untrue things I've heard personally from friends/neighbors/relatives: EV battery packs will start filling up landfills everywhere, EVs are 100% powered by coal, EVs can't be charged in a power outage (implying that gas pumps still work), EVs are bad if you are stuck on the highway in a snowstorm (implying that a gas engine will run longer and it is easy to get your gas tank refilled on the highway in a snowstorm), EVs will cause the grid to crash, EVs are slow (yes some people still believe this), it is impossible to take an EV on a cross country trip, EVs don't work well in the snow, EV battery packs will fail every 20,000 miles and cost as much as the car to replace. I could probably think of some more. Consider yourself lucky if you don't know anyone who is telling you this stuff.

Edit: I thought of another one. My friend told me the Rivian looks cool but probably "can't drive through a stick of butter." My reply was to send him this:

Rivian & Bronco Off Roading:

 

[Vulnox]

Here are some untrue things I've heard personally from friends/neighbors/relatives: EV battery packs will start filling up landfills everywhere, EVs are 100% powered by coal, EVs can't be charged in a power outage (implying that gas pumps still work), EVs are bad if you are stuck on the highway in a snowstorm (implying that a gas engine will run longer and it is easy to get your gas tank refilled on the highway in a snowstorm), EVs will cause the grid to crash, EVs are slow (yes some people still believe this), it is impossible to take an EV on a cross country trip, EVs don't work well in the snow, EV battery packs will fail every 20,000 miles and cost as much as the car to replace. I could probably think of some more. Consider yourself lucky if you don't know anyone who is telling you this stuff.

My favorite is the "I don't want to sit for hours at a charger just to go somewhere". It certainly takes longer than an ICE vehicle right now, but you aren't likely to spend "hours" charging unless you are actually going cross country.

For any trip under 6 hours you may need to spend 15-20 minutes charging. Especially if there is a charging option at your destination. On one of our trips that was five hours we probably could have made is straight through, but very little margin for error, so we got a 15 minute safety charge while we used the bathroom and ate and our hotel had L2 chargers which we used to get back to full. Taking the F-150 would have offered little tangible benefit since we would have stopped for the bathroom and probably snacks anyway, and I notice people underestimate how long they spend doing that stuff, 15 minutes goes quick.

For trips over 6 hours we still take the F-150. The core thing is to buy the vehicle that fits your needs, and much like an Escape towing a TT, an EV won't always be the right move for people just yet. As long as they are arriving at that conclusion with real info there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[MW1515]

My favorite is the "I don't want to sit for hours at a charger just to go somewhere". It certainly takes longer than an ICE vehicle right now, but you aren't likely to spend "hours" charging unless you are actually going cross country.

Thanks that's another good one. I've owned my MME for over 18 months and the most I've ever sat at a DCFC is 15 minutes. Plus I've saved many hours that I would have spent getting gas in an ICE over that time.

 

[Vulnox]

Thanks that's another good one. I've owned my MME for over 18 months and the most I've ever sat at a DCFC is 15 minutes. Plus I've saved many hours that I would have spent getting gas in an ICE over that time.

Yeah, the cumulative gas time is huge for me and I try to mention it to people that are worried. It's just hard to get over the hump of what people are used to, because it's all they have known, where they don't think much about it.

I mentioned it in another comment here, but we put half as many miles on our F-150 hybrid as we do the MME, mostly due to my wife driving to work daily but I work at home. But the F-150 and Mach-e both see about equal road trip time annually. I still spend waaaay more time annually driving to stations, activating pumps, fueling, and then getting back on route than we spend waiting at DCFC on the MME. Even if most of your gas fill ups are on your way somewhere, we all have those instances where we make a special trip to get gas, maybe before a storm or your spouse doesn't fill up, whatever it may be. Not to mention people that go out of their way to pay a few cents less/gallon.

When you start to pay attention to all the time spent on that, plus oil changes and whatever else, bringing up a couple DCFC sessions per year looks pretty silly. It's just we're so used to it and the individual stops are short, so it goes without much comment. Like people that spend $3 here and $5 there on little snacks and purchases and don't notice it adding up to thousands per year.

 

[EVandSolar]

I hope. But that’s the issue, isn’t it?

This is part of Tesla's plan to help transition the world to clean renewable energy:
1) EV's
2) wind and solar
3) grid level energy storage.

This is their mission.

They added 6.5 GWh of energy storage in 2022, and YoY increases are strong:


“Energy storage also saw record growth and (it) is continuing to accelerate. It’s always worth remembering that the three pillars of a sustainable energy future are obviously electric vehicles, solar and wind, and the third key item is stationary storage to store the energy from solar and wind — because obviously, the sun doesn’t shine all the time and the wind doesn’t blow all the time.

“So I would like to just make it clear that there is a path to a fully sustainable future for humanity, and our goal at Tesla is to accelerate progress on that path as much as humanly possible. So we are ramping up Megapack production, and we expect it to grow at a rate quite a bit faster than our vehicle output,” Musk said.

I like the Mach-e. We own an Kia Niro EV and a Tesla. The Niro falls into some of the issues you have brought up. Tesla's SC network almost eliminates it. We took a 12 hour each way road trip and spent less time fueling than we would have in a gas car:

Drove to work 45 minutes. Left work and drove until we were tired. Stopped for the night and charged overnight. Full tank, no time spent fueling. Drove for a few hours until I needed coffee and a pee break. Plugged in, got coffee, took a leak, jumped in and drove. Zero waiting. Drove several hours...time for lunch. Plugged in, ate lunch, 95%. Drove the rest of the way(was about 600 miles total). Plugged in at Air BnB. Zero time spent fueling for the entire trip. The ride home was about the same. There was almost no planning required thanks to the technology that is in place *today*....250Kw fast charging, an EV with 4mi/kWh efficiency and >300 mile range.

Outside of Tesla's ecosystem, things are indeed much different. 2025 should be a big improvement when everyone has NACS access.

 

[Mach1E]

If gas prices were still at the levels seen at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and you could still sell your EV for as much (if not more) than when you bought it, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation.

EV adoption in America will reach its true tipping point when it's the more affordable option relative to gas/oil.

We'll get there. Solar in the long term is much cheaper than extracting and squeezing dinosaurs.

For sure.

“Alternative energy” is only “alternative” because it’s more expensive.

 

[Mach1E]

Here are some untrue things I've heard personally from friends/neighbors/relatives: EV battery packs will start filling up landfills everywhere, EVs are 100% powered by coal, EVs can't be charged in a power outage (implying that gas pumps still work), EVs are bad if you are stuck on the highway in a snowstorm (implying that a gas engine will run longer and it is easy to get your gas tank refilled on the highway in a snowstorm), EVs will cause the grid to crash, EVs are slow (yes some people still believe this), it is impossible to take an EV on a cross country trip, EVs don't work well in the snow, EV battery packs will fail every 20,000 miles and cost as much as the car to replace. I could probably think of some more. Consider yourself lucky if you don't know anyone who is telling you this stuff.

Edit: I thought of another one. My friend told me the Rivian looks cool but probably "can't drive through a stick of butter." My reply was to send him this:

Rivian & Bronco Off Roading:

To be fair, gas stations have backup generators to work during power outages.

Been through quite a few hurricanes and outages in the last few decades. They get the power back to them first as well.

The landfill and “how you get your energy” are somewhat legit concerns.

Running out of gas on the highway is better than running out of battery charge too. Even though your battery could last longer in theory, that only works if you’re fully charged when you get stuck.

And we have a story posted here about a $56k cost to replace a Kia or Hyundai battery pack recently.

So……..not all those things you heard were totally crazy. But luckily they’re not all entirely true.

 

[Mach1E]

What do you think these folks are misinformed about? The people I talk to seem to know the true limitations of current battery technology. If anything, they don’t fully appreciate those limitations, and I’m happy to tell them.

And when you say “I'm happy to hear that you think that the transition to EVs is so inevitable that in 10 years none of the current limitations will matter” you kind of have that backwards. What I think is that in ten years the current limitations won’t exist, which will make our current teething issues and barriers to transition obsolete. See the difference?

I think that’s extremely optimistic thinking you have about the limitations not existing (in battery technology I’m assuming) in 10 years.

Yes, we have seen technological revolutions in 10 years time before.

But this is where we have a problem.

This isn’t new technology nor new limitations. It’s very OLD tech we have been working to advance for over 100 years.

And the same problems electric cars had in the 1920s, still exist in the 2020s.

Cost
Weight
Energy density
Range
Charging speed
Capacity
Reliability
Heat

Yes, they have gotten better. But they won’t “go away” in 10 years. Why? Because physics.

You can only store so much energy in so much space and charge it so quickly without it getting too hot and keeping it reliable.

In the last 10 years…….the 2013 Model S and 2023 Model S aren’t very different tech and limitation wise.

I don’t expect the 2033 Model S to be much different either.

 

[Mirak]

Here are some untrue things I've heard personally from friends/neighbors/relatives: EV battery packs will start filling up landfills everywhere, EVs are 100% powered by coal, EVs can't be charged in a power outage (implying that gas pumps still work), EVs are bad if you are stuck on the highway in a snowstorm (implying that a gas engine will run longer and it is easy to get your gas tank refilled on the highway in a snowstorm), EVs will cause the grid to crash, EVs are slow (yes some people still believe this), it is impossible to take an EV on a cross country trip, EVs don't work well in the snow, EV battery packs will fail every 20,000 miles and cost as much as the car to replace. I could probably think of some more. Consider yourself lucky if you don't know anyone who is telling you this stuff.

Some of this is… not exactly false.

We really have no idea what’s gonna happen with all these battery packs. Recycling at scale is far from proven. Anybody who still has unshakeable confidence in any manner of recycling at this point ought to gain perspective.

EVs aren’t 100% powered by coal, but EVs aren’t gonna take coal offline anytime soon because all renewable energy requires a 100% backup.

Both EV and ICE would have trouble fueling in a power outage, but at least one can easily store gasoline if that concerned.

Ummm… you would WAY rather be stuck in a blizzard in an ICE than an EV.

Are you not aware that California asked people to avoid charging their EVs last summer to avoid brownouts? Our grid is pitiful.

It isn’t “impossible” to take an EV on a road trip, but harder? Yes. You’re using superlative straw men.

 

[Mirak]

And now let’s talk about some of the cons of EV ownership most people don’t know about…

Most people have no idea about charging curves. Meaning once you start that road trip at 100%, you’re effectively limited to 80% for DCFC from that point on unless you want to spend a lot more time charging.

Most people aren’t aware that you can go ahead and reduce your range by 30% in winter temps. Go ahead and shave off another 20% at highway speeds. And shave off even more for a stiff headwind. Shave off more if you’d like to use the heater.

Most people are not aware that EVs are currently suffering rather staggering depreciation.

Most people are somewhat aware of the lack of working/available DCFC, but not truly aware of just how shitty the situation actually is.

Most people are not aware that while garage charging is super easy, you can usually bank on spending $500 to several thousand dollars to get the necessary outlet in your garage.

These are just off the top of my head.

Misinformation and ignorance cuts both ways.

 

[Auto Motive]

Gosh, I wonder where they got the idea of dominating trade and saddling poor countries with debt? Difference is, China's end game is 200 years out. In the US we have trouble thinking further than the next TikTok scroll.

I say bring on the Chinese cars. If people are willing to buy them, other manufacturers are just going to have to compete. As long as we keep buying cheap Chinese stuff I don't want to hear about fears of Chinese dominance.

You dont get. China thats the country, subsidizes their ev producers to compete in other countries and in time dominate. The EU is taking action on imported ev from china knowing they are subsidized.

 

[Mirak]

I think that’s extremely optimistic thinking you have about the limitations not existing (in battery technology I’m assuming) in 10 years.

Yes, we have seen technological revolutions in 10 years time before.

But this is where we have a problem.

This isn’t new technology nor new limitations. It’s very OLD tech we have been working to advance for over 100 years.

And the same problems electric cars had in the 1920s, still exist in the 2020s.

Cost
Weight
Energy density
Range
Charging speed
Capacity
Reliability
Heat

Yes, they have gotten better. But they won’t “go away” in 10 years. Why? Because physics.

You can only store so much energy in so much space and charge it so quickly without it getting too hot and keeping it reliable.

In the last 10 years…….the 2013 Model S and 2023 Model S aren’t very different tech and limitation wise.

I don’t expect the 2033 Model S to be much different either.

I hope I’m closer to right than you are. I honestly don’t know.

What I do know is that we’re nearly 20 years into the commercial jump from NiMH to Li-Ion. We need one more jump like that. Solid state seems to be close. It already exists, just not at scale.

 

[mkhuffman]

You dont get. China thats the country, subsidizes their ev producers to compete in other countries and in time dominate. The EU is taking action on imported ev from china knowing they are subsidized.

Any electronic product produced by a Chinese company has a high chance of containing CCP spyware. There is no freaking way I am letting the CCP collect data from my car. And of all the things the government shouldn't do, banning spying devices from a enemy government is one thing they should do. Not just tariffs, complete bans.

 

[jay1122]

Man, look at you noble men arguing environments, politics and even espionage conspiracy theories. For a layman like me. I just want some of the affordable chinese EV offerings. MG cyberster, the 2.84 sec 0-60 zeekr 007. $40-50K price range. too bad the politics prevent it.

The existing offerings in the US market is just boring SUV after another boring SUV. Slow and over priced. The fast acceleration model 3 has cheap ass interior.

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