ChasingCoral

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Looks like much higher residuals on Ford Options for the Lightning than the Mach E:

Ford Mustang Mach-E Mach-E Ford Options Residual Values Released (Lower than F-150 Lightning's) Ford-2022MY-Options-Residual-Values-F150-Lightning-MachE
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Jimrpa

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Does this mean, for example, ford thinks that, on average a Premium ER AWD will be worth 43% of original cost after 3 years?
 


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Yes, at 15k miles/yr. Add % points as noted for less miles.
But doesn’t it mean that’s what Ford thinks it’s worth to Ford itself, at a minimum, if they have to take the car back in? Essentially, Ford believes a dealer can still make acceptable profit on the reconditioning and resale of the car, including all the transaction and commission costs, so long as the original buyer had paid 57% of the original value of the vehicle (in the case of a 43% residual, for example). I don’t believe the number reflects the actual market value as it’s designed to protect the dealer from risking taking a loss if the original owner chooses to turn the car in rather than make the final balloon payment.

I don’t know how much an ER Lariat will actually be worth in 36 months, but there isn’t any way you’re gonna find one in 3 years with 45k miles selling for $36,700 (47% of approximately $80,000 MSRP after delivery and no ADM).
 

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If you can sell a 1 year old MME almost at MSRP, why would anyone lease or use Ford options? It is like paying monthly rent when you don't have to.
I know the market won't be like that forever but this is how it is now.

The only reason I can think of is if you don't have the full amount available or if you believe investing this amount will have a return bigger than the lease payments.
 
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yngwenli

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If you can sell a 1 year old MME almost at MSRP, why would anyone lease or use Ford options? It is like paying monthly rent when you don't have to.
I know the market won't be like that forever but this is how it is now.

The only reason I can think of is if you don't have the full amount available or if you believe investing this amount will have a return bigger than the lease payments.

In a year from now, Ford would probably hit the 200k in sales so the fed tax credit will be less than the full $7.5k meaning selling and replacing with a new Mach-E might be more expensive unless Ford cuts prices to match the lost of the tax credit.

Ford options still makes a lot of sense to me since you get $2.5k off the car in some locations and if someone qualified for the 2.49% rate, you could buy say i-bonds with "limited" risk and keep cash in hand:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm
What interest will I get if I buy an I bond now?
The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2021 through April 2022 is 7.12 percent. This rate applies for the first six months you own the bond.


This is what I am thinking of doing right now.

It's also a hassle to sell/rebuy another car so if the MME works good enough, they may just not deal with selling in a year.
 

generaltso

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If you can sell a 1 year old MME almost at MSRP, why would anyone lease or use Ford options?
Because Ford Options doesn't preclude you from selling the car at any time. It's just a loan. I went with Options for the$2500 incentive, which made it cheaper than paying cash.
 

chrisGT

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Because Ford Options doesn't preclude you from selling the car at any time. It's just a loan. I went with Options for the$2500 incentive, which made it cheaper than paying cash.
Don't you pay some interest though? I don't remember how much that was and how it compares with the incentive.
 

SpaceEVDriver

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We're choosing Options for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that having money in hand for other investments or uses is more valuable than putting it all into a vehicle. The total cost of financing will be less than 4% on a 3-year loan (not the APY/APR, but the total cost of the loan, assuming we don't get the incentive).
Our investments have been earning quite a bit more than that.
 

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Don't you pay some interest though? I don't remember how much that was and how it compares with the incentive.
i pay 1.4% interest on my ford options plan GT. that 2.5k was way more than the interest im going to pay. btw i'm also in northern california. small world
 

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Does this mean, for example, ford thinks that, on average a Premium ER AWD will be worth 43% of original cost after 3 years?
Yes, but you have to realize that residual determinations take into account mfg discounts, government rebates and any other “trunk money” attached to the original price of the car. That is to say the residual, based on the original MSRP of the car was reduced by the federal and state rebates that came with the car. Without them, the residuals on MME’s would probably be up around 53-55%.

this is why Ford came up with the balloon payment plan. Nobody with any sense would lease a $55,000 car with that low a residual, even if the rate was at 0.
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