Federal tax credit

[Dancefreak]

Yep. I guess you meant something different with "ordered on day 1 for 2023" than what I thought you meant.

The OP was asking about ordering a car the day 2023 banks open. With orders stopped currently, there won't be a huge backlog like last time, so wouldn't you agree he'll get his car before July 2023?

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[Cm12]

At best, $3750 is what you’ll get. At worst, $0. Considering that the value of used cars is ridiculous right now, and because there’s a chance (or even a good likelihood that prices will increase for 2023 MY), I’d guess that about $4,500-$5,000 ADM on a GTPE available today will be the same net price as a MY 2023 GPTE whenever you get it in 2023. Factor in how much more you may get on the sale of your current vehicle and it’s possibly more. And don’t forget about a year of fuel savings, if that will be significant, along with the non-quantifiable amount of enjoyment of a new GTPE. As much as I despise ADM and loathe dealerships that do it, there’s a reasonable justification to pay it right now if that’s definitely the car you want.

 

[dbsb3233]

The OP was asking about ordering a car the day 2023 banks open. With orders stopped currently, there won't be a huge backlog like last time, so wouldn't you agree he'll get his car before July 2023?

Probably, yes. I just misinterpreted what you meant.

 

[nvabill]

The OP was asking about ordering a car the day 2023 banks open. With orders stopped currently, there won't be a huge backlog like last time, so wouldn't you agree he'll get his car before July 2023?

No, you don't know when all the 22's will get built, you don't know if some 22's will get converted to 23's, you don't know what supply constraints will be at the time, you don't know if a bunch of people will be able to order ahead of you, to think you will be guaranteed a delivery date before July 23 is just plain wishful thinking at best.

 

[Dancefreak]

No, you don't know when all the 22's will get built, you don't know if some 22's will get converted to 23's, you don't know what supply constraints will be at the time, you don't know if a bunch of people will be able to order ahead of you, to think you will be guaranteed a delivery date before July 23 is just plain wishful thinking at best.

of course no one knows anything with certainty, but you can look at facts on the ground and make a pretty decent educated guess that’s a lot stronger than just wishful thinking.

we all know that Ford will have stopped taking orders for a minimum of several months.

we all know that allows them time to work through backlog and that will put them into a better position when 2023 orders start vs last year.

nothing is absolute, of course there could be new unanticipated supply issues leading to a few converted orders. But most of the supply chain is baked into operations at this point and they learned from what happened last year, it’s why they stopped orders. Ford doesn’t want to be delivering 2022 cars into 2023 any more than customers want to be receiving them.

These are all things that factor into a reasonable expectation that someone ordering a car on the first day 2023 order banks open is very likely to receive it by June 30, 2023.

Now a new backlog could quickly grow and someone who orders a few weeks later might get their car several months after the OP. That’s also a reasonable expectation.

 

[shereth]

Well, as you can see from what everyone else is saying, your odds of getting the full credit aren't good, but the problem is right now it's all a guessing game. There are too many unknowns. When will the 2023 order bank open? Will they still be at 20, 28, 40+ weeks to delivery? When will Ford reach the magical 200k sales mark? Will Congress extend/change the tax rebate program in the meantime?

What we do know:

• Ford is "on track" to sell their 200,000th qualifying EV sometime in Q3 of this year. Q2 is still a possibility, but only if production and sales really picks up, which is hasn't quite yet, so there's a high confidence in that Q3 prediction. Q4 is also possible but only if there were some kind of disastrous plant shutdown or something.
• This means that, under the current tax rebate law, you qualify for $7500 if you finalize your purchase by Dec 31, 2022; $3750 if you purchase by June 30, 2023; or $1875 if you purchase by Dec 31, 2023.
• GT and GTPE orders have been taking, generally, somewhere between 4-6 months between time of placing order to time of receiving and finalizing the purchase of the vehicle.

Assuming the Q3 prediction sticks (which seems likely) and the production timeline remains more or less the same (no reason to believe otherwise right now but certainly no guarantee), how much federal tax credit you can expect boils down to when the 2023 order bank opens:

• Before July 2022, you stand a good chance of getting the full credit
• July - September 2022, some chance of the full credit, likely to get $3750
• October - December 2022, good chance of getting the $3750
• January - March 2023, some chance of the $3750, likely to get $1875
• April - June 2023, good chance of still getting $1875
• July - September 2023, some possibility of getting the $1875
• October 2023 and later, unlikely to get any rebate

Again, that's all subject to the assumption that the production timeframes look more or less like they do now, and that's for the GT/GTPE models. Other models have slower production timelines and would have less optimistic forecasts for getting a tax credit.

 

[nvabill]

of course no one knows anything with certainty, but you can look at facts on the ground and make a pretty decent educated guess that’s a lot stronger than just wishful thinking.

we all know that Ford will have stopped taking orders for a minimum of several months.

we all know that allows them time to work through backlog and that will put them into a better position when 2023 orders start vs last year.

nothing is absolute, of course there could be new unanticipated supply issues leading to a few converted orders. But most of the supply chain is baked into operations at this point and they learned from what happened last year, it’s why they stopped orders. Ford doesn’t want to be delivering 2022 cars into 2023 any more than customers want to be receiving them.

These are all things that factor into a reasonable expectation that someone ordering a car on the first day 2023 order banks open is very likely to receive it by June 30, 2023.

Now a new backlog could quickly grow and someone who orders a few weeks later might get their car several months after the OP. That’s also a reasonable expectation.

You literally just used different words to make my point. Glad you took the implied guarantee out that you had previously used, now you get it. ?

 

[Dancefreak]

You literally just used different words to make my point. Glad you took the implied guarantee out that you had previously used, now you get it. ?

I always got it but......cool I guess with the pointless snark.

 

[nvabill]

I always got it but......cool I guess with the pointless snark.

You could have fooled me! Seriously though the time frames on these things are ridiculous, Ford gave me a 6/13 build date and that didn't even last a week, now I'm a 6/20 build week. Just talked to my dealer yesterday and shipment alone is averaging over a month from production to delivery to the dealer. That means I will be lucky to get my car by the end of July which means it will be over 8 and a half months from the order date. All this after getting an email early on from Ford telling me I had one of the first California Route 1 orders for the 22 model year. Well, whoopty do, that don't mean crap, Ford is very inconsistent about how they are doing the Mach E, just sayin! End of rant! ?

 

[ARK]

The OP was asking about ordering a car the day 2023 banks open. With orders stopped currently, there won't be a huge backlog like last time, so wouldn't you agree he'll get his car before July 2023?

I agree with this. In fact, I’d say there is a small chance OP can get the full credit because presumably, they will start building and shipping the 2023s this fall, they have not taken any orders yet, and it seems some people on here who have ordered a GTPE have not had to wait as long as people with other variants (ER AWD Premium seems most impacted).

I think for OP to maximize his chances he has to do two things:

1) Find a large local dealer now that you want to work with because a larger dealer will likely get more production allocation;

2) Watch these forums to place an order the day 2023 ordering opens up (maybe as early as August?).

Assuming there are no big hiccups with Mach-E production, if you are one of the first to order a 2023 from a dealer with a larger allocation, I’d say you do have some chance of taking delivery on or before December 31, 2022 after which the tax credit is likely to phase out.

Also, there is a small chance the full tax credit will last until March 31, 2023 if Ford actively tries to slow deliveries over the next few months to preserve it so that they don’t hit 200,000 total EV sales in the US until this fall (Q4 2022), for example, by focusing on shipments to Europe.

 

[Bigfeets]

I'm just emphasizing what others have said on this thread and on other threads: IF Ford reaches 200,000 EV sold in US in Q3 (July-Sep 2022), the full tax $7500 tax credit will apply to all Ford US EV sales during all of that quarter and for the full following quarter (Oct-Dec 2022). Then, 2 quarters of half $3750, then two more quarters at 1/4 tax credit (that's the end of 2023). Also, Ford has declared an intention to increase MME and Lightning production, but actually has not been able to show much "improvement" in first quarter of 2022 (perhaps due to projects with long lead time, such as building new plants, adding 2nd production line, or improving supply chain). They may start taking orders for both 2023 models and actually begin producing them in Jan 2023. However, they may also have the 2022MY "backlog" to deal with, if 2021 happenings recur. We, the retail consumer, will not know Ford's allocation algorithm, now or then, particularly how many MME go to non-US markets (2021 Ford built 65,000 MME with <half sold in US), or how much individual dealers can influence the process. There are also greater unknowns: will Ford improve its archaic FoMoCo->dealer->retail buyer sales/delivery model, and will solid state EV batteries make LiPo batteries obsolete in a few years?
Onward through the fog...

 

[dknyc1]

I just picked up my Mach E yesterday - I assume even though I wont fill out the tax credit form til I do my 2022 taxes I am locked in for the full tax credit based on when I received the car or do I need to file something now?

 

[Dancefreak]

You could have fooled me! Seriously though the time frames on these things are ridiculous, Ford gave me a 6/13 build date and that didn't even last a week, now I'm a 6/20 build week. Just talked to my dealer yesterday and shipment alone is averaging over a month from production to delivery to the dealer. That means I will be lucky to get my car by the end of July which means it will be over 8 and a half months from the order date. All this after getting an email early on from Ford telling me I had one of the first California Route 1 orders for the 22 model year. Well, whoopty do, that don't mean crap, Ford is very inconsistent about how they are doing the Mach E, just sayin! End of rant! ?

So you ordered a car in November(ish) and were already behind a very long backlog with all the converted orders plus the many who ordered when the 2022 banks opened? A situation that is apples to oranges for what will be happening later this year for all the many variables mentioned. But I do understand the need for ranting hope you get your car asap!

FWIW I ordered August 22 and drove home on April 30 so 8 months and a week for me. Now they're playing catch up.

 

[Dancefreak]

I just picked up my Mach E yesterday - I assume even though I wont fill out the tax credit form til I do my 2022 taxes I am locked in for the full tax credit based on when I received the car or do I need to file something now?

You qualify for the full credit. No forms to fill out now.

 

[Dancefreak]

However, they may also have the 2022MY "backlog" to deal with, if 2021 happenings recur.

They never stopped taking orders last year for any significant amount of time. Any backlog would be a fraction of what it was last year since there will be no incoming orders piling on for many months.

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