Mainstream = 1000-1000

[RonTCat]

OK, need a time frame.

I say BEV will go truly mainstream when we get batteries that give us 1000-1000 for a 5000lb vehicle, meaning:
1000 mile range
$1000 battery cost

When will we see that milestone? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?

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[EVer]

Why do you think it takes a 1000 mile range to be mainstream? What mainstream ICE vehicles have 1000 mile ranges?

 

[RonTCat]

Why do you think it takes a 1000 mile range to be mainstream? What mainstream ICE vehicles have 1000 mile ranges?

OK, I assume full accessories in winter/summer will put this at equivalent ICE range.

 

[EVer]

I see. Perhaps that would get it down to the longest range ICE cars (~700 miles).

As for the time frame, I think the range milestone is achievable in 10 years, but not the cost bogey. These vehicles be mainstream before production costs come down that much.

 

[trutolife27]

OK, I assume full accessories in winter/summer will put this at equivalent ICE range.

They did a study on this in 2018. The sweet spot for the range is the 450-mile range. So say the EPA says 550 and you can get between 400 and 450 real miles. Plus fast charging 0% to 80% in 20 minutes. From what I have heard is by 2030 it should be done. What the cost will be is the factor.

 

[EV Lab]

As soon as energy densities start hitting 1000Wh/l at low cost, along with reliable widely available fast charging infrastructure is when the switch to EVs will really take off.

At 1000Wh/l a 40kWh pack can fit where a 12 gallon tank would sit. With that, a vehicle platform would not need to be specially designed for EV. Make it chargeable to 80% in 5 minutes anywhere there is a gas station today, and all of a sudden the barriers to adoption are gone.

Were not far away from that being reality... maybe 10 years?

1000Wh/l for $1000 is the goal!

 

[1pt21Gigawatts]

OK, need a time frame.

I say BEV will go truly mainstream when we get batteries that give us 1000-1000 for a 5000lb vehicle, meaning:
1000 mile range
$1000 battery cost

When will we see that milestone? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?

Pre-rant edit: In answer to your actual question, I think we probably cap out at 150kwh in ~2033 for some vehicles, with most being <125kwh efficiency mobiles like Tesla that have been optimized to get 350mi with minimal cold weather impact while getting 800V better charge rates for drivers that don’t push their vehicles that hard and enabled by ubiquitous charging availability.

Rant:

That’s super interesting question, and the more I think about it I don’t think we will.

What you’re describing can be approximated by kilowatt hours, and the reasonable usage by consumer compared to their ideal use case scenario in terms of wastage and ideal range. The more I think about it, I don’t think we’re going back there. That use case scenario is predicated upon having tons of wasted energy from a fuel that had no other purpose. Gasoline was originally used for vehicles because it was so volatile that nothing else could use it. Henry Ford was brilliant for using it and got it for free most of the time, from petroleum wells that were selling kerosene and were just throwing away the gasoline that was distilled as a byproduct.

I don’t see a world where we just have that much wasted energy lying around again. Particularly when the electric vehicle uses the most versatile fuel that we’ve ever had: Electricity. There’s no scenario where we just are willing to waste that much electricity, useful for any other application under the sun, all the time. Gasoline gets it for free, just look at how willing the world has been to waste the energy of gasoline in SUVs for decades. Even despite the fact that we willingly will seek out more and more oil at great personal cost. There’s much less competition for those kilowatt hours coming from gasoline, with physical limits of ICE technology preventing its efficient application, and I don’t see that being ever true for electricity especially in a world that has ever increasing energy needs.

The second half of this, is that unless something radically changes, I don’t see the physical rule that chemical energy is a lot more effective at energy storage by using the breaking of chemical bonds than creating a gradient potential of ions. I don’t think we’ll ever see a world where batteries even remotely approach the energy density of gasoline, just based on that physical rule alone. It’s like trying to make a nuclear bomb out of compressed air - doesn’t make sense. Maybe we don’t have to store that much energy due to the efficiency, since an ice vehicle wastes so much energy, but I don’t see a world where we store up as much extra energy as we used to waste from the free, purposeless extra energy in gasoline just for creature comforts. We’re going to live skinny due to the competitiveness for the energy and the simply physics that chemical energy doesn’t work the same way as potential energy storage.

That’s why fuel cells were such a compelling argument. Converting chemical storage to electrical usage is really the dream when it comes to physical laws of engineering. The only issue is that fuel cells are ridiculously difficult to manage, and the fuel very difficult to distribute. Can you imagine a fuel cell vehicle that converts ethanol to electricity with high-efficiency? It’s a renewable resource with high energy density, maximum recyclability, and electric efficiency. But still, why make more energy than you have to? Gasoline is free kwh that we just find underground, and that always has wastage in an ICE system topology that we can use to power your cozy cabin.

Hopefully we can figure out battery technology, but I don’t see us ever overcoming the battery life cycle issues and physical laws governing capacity in a way that allows us energy usage as freely as what we used to have with gasoline. I think we’re just passed that point in our history where we can waste that much energy and resources with no consequences. Talking about, essentially, when EVs can return to the wasteful ways of ICE vehicles, is exactly the opposite of the point. It’s not just a fun propulsion technology, it’s a mandatory evolution of our way of life.

What this means for cars is that likely our lifestyle with them is ending In the way that we knew it, new vehicles will be connected, less free, more constrained. But it doesn’t have to be that way, except for the fact that there will never be a replacement rate of new vehicles like there used to be on gasoline. For us to support electric vehicles like you’re talking about, they have to last forever, and no manufacturers ever going to make a classic freedom of expression vehicle that lasts 20 years. They will be robot taxis like Tesla, that’s the only thing that makes economical sense.

That’s why I’m getting this vehicle, it seems like a fleeting thing in the history of vehicles. One of the rare moments where we actually get to have fun at the same time as having the benefits of the new technology. I’d be interested to know how long it lasts. Cars should still be fun, driving should still be freedom, we should be allowed to waste energy on teenage joyrides in the country rather than just counting every miserly kwh, but we do have to tone it down a bit and I’m concerned that the economy of it from a production standpoint won’t allow that middle ground.

Autonomy and the writing on the wall for OEM profit margins going forward is going to come for these vehicles at some point, and turn them into econoboxes. And a world where all the vehicles are like Tesla; efficient, Spartan, nearly identical, and essentially owned by someone else, is not a world I really want to drive in. Might as well take the train.

 

[silverelan]

OK, need a time frame.

I say BEV will go truly mainstream when we get batteries that give us 1000-1000 for a 5000lb vehicle, meaning:
1000 mile range
$1000 battery cost

When will we see that milestone? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?

Range wars are about to peak and we'll probably recede back to 300-400mi being the norm with 20 minutes charging to 80% range. For a passenger car/crossover, 500+ miles of range just doesn't make sense.

600mi range in EV trucks/SUVs will only be a byproduct of large packs necessitated by towing but even then, Ford's Powerboost hybrid technology is probably better suited for towing anyways and that gets like 700mi of range.

As for timing? 2023 is when I expect the technology shift will be transparently obvious from a range/$ perspective.

 

[1pt21Gigawatts]

OK, I assume full accessories in winter/summer will put this at equivalent ICE range.

Also separately the amount of energy for cabin heating is like 3kwh/hr max. I don’t see us needing giant batteries for creature comforts. Get some better insulation in the cabin

 

[Badger_Prof]

I see. Perhaps that would get it down to the longest range ICE cars (~700 miles).

As for the time frame, I think the range milestone is achievable in 10 years, but not the cost bogey. These vehicles be mainstream before production costs come down that much.

Perhaps an appropriate cost bogey would be the cost of the EV drivetrain including motor and battery matches the cost of an ICE drivetrain including engine, transmission, & other drivetrain parts (and the cost of the gas tank).

 

[ChasingCoral]

They did a study on this in 2018. The sweet spot for the range is the 450-mile range. So say the EPA says 550 and you can get between 400 and 450 real miles. Plus fast charging 0% to 80% in 20 minutes. From what I have heard is by 2030 it should be done. What the cost will be is the factor.

I agree these two are much more important than 1000 miles.

 

[1pt21Gigawatts]

I agree these two are much more important than 1000 miles.

I think he‘s saying That the extra mileage will go towards the 50% loss on range from cold and accessory

 

[ChasingCoral]

I think he‘s saying That the extra mileage will go towards the 50% loss on range from cold and accessory

I hear that. However, I'm not convinced 50% is appropriate. I've also been reading @dbsb3233's biggest concerns for use and agree with something he's said elsewhere: reducing charging time is very important.

I'm agreeing with the report @trutolife27 quoted: 400-450 miles (probably about 550-600 EPA) and 20 minute 20-80% time (we really don't want to be going down to 0) are the important targets.

 

[RonTCat]

I think he‘s saying That the extra mileage will go towards the 50% loss on range from cold and accessory

Yes.
Start at 1000 mile EPA range, then:
- You only really would use 80% of that range. Maybe charge to 100 or 90%, then go to 10-20% as "empty". You are at ~800 miles now.
- I'll be generous and say you'll lose only 35% by driving the way most people do with an ICE vehicle, i.e. full A/C in summer, heat in winter, 75+MPH on the freeway, not "hypermiling" type driving, normal key-off losses, etc. Now you are at somewhere around 500 miles of range.

This should be sufficient for most people to cover 99%+ of there typical vehicle usage.

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