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Mainstream = 1000-1000

ChasingCoral

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Yes.
Start at 1000 mile EPA range, then:
- You only really would use 80% of that range. Maybe charge to 100 or 90%, then go to 10-20% as "empty". You are at ~800 miles now.
- I'll be generous and say you'll lose only 35% by driving the way most people do with an ICE vehicle, i.e. full A/C in summer, heat in winter, 75+MPH on the freeway, not "hypermiling" type driving, normal key-off losses, etc. Now you are at somewhere around 500 miles of range.

This should be sufficient for most people to cover 99%+ of there typical vehicle usage.
Do you really think most people need to be able to drive 7 hours without stopping?
 
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Do you really think most people need to be able to drive 7 hours without stopping?
No, but most people want to stop where they want to stop, not where there is a charging station.
 

ChasingCoral

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No, but most people want to stop where they want to stop, not where there is a charging station.
Agreed but most ICE cars have 300-400 mile range, not 500. We're talking the future here, so we have to consider the rapid build-out of EV charging stations happening now. As stated by numerous EV experts I think 1000 mile EPA range is a red herring.
 

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Agreed but most ICE cars have 300-400 mile range, not 500. We're talking the future here, so we have to consider the rapid build-out of EV charging stations happening now. As stated by numerous EV experts I think 1000 mile EPA range is a red herring.
Agreed. Even the aforementioned 450 miles is likely more than necessary in most situations. Critical mass on EV adoption at this point is a function of price. Slowly, people are getting past the common preconceived notions and starting to understand how much more convenient EVs are than ICEVs (fueling at home, vastly less maintenance). If they're also affordable to the median wage earner, they'll sell themselves.
 

dbsb3233

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OK, need a time frame.

I say BEV will go truly mainstream when we get batteries that give us 1000-1000 for a 5000lb vehicle, meaning:
1000 mile range
$1000 battery cost

When will we see that milestone? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?
Depends on what we consider "mainstream", but let's say that means passing 25% new vehicle market share. That puts it's well past niche, or just a rich people purchase.

There's really 3 factors. You mentioned range and price. The 3rd is DCFC charging time, because that's one of the big reasons range matters. If charging time were just 10 minutes, people won't mind as much about having to stop 5 times in the day to refuel instead of just 2-3.

I'll say 400 miles (0-100 SOC, which is probably ~280 interstate mile legs, similar to ICE), for <$8,000. In a boxier shape like an SUV. Even with the right specs, most people still aren't gonna want a low airplane-wing sedan. But that probably means something like a 160 kWh battery ($50/kWh). And much better energy density so it doesn't weigh too much just to carry itself.
 
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dbsb3233

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No, but most people want to stop where they want to stop, not where there is a charging station.
That is a significant issue. We focus a lot on whether a BEV road trip route is even possible. But there's also a big difference between just possible and preferable.

Precise locations for gas stations doesn't matter that much because you only need to be there maybe 5 minutes. If it's your food stop and the choice there at the gas station kinda sucks, fine, you just take a couple of minutes to refuel and drive a mile to the restaurant you want. But because recharging takes so much longer, you usually want to eat/shop/etc WHILE the car is charging, to kill that time. But your car is stuck at the charger. So that means you're limited to just the few choices (if any) near the charger.

That lack of choices and flexibility will be a significant inhibitor. (Unless/until charging times come way down.)
 
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That is a significant issue. We focus a lot on whether a BEV road trip route is even possible. But there's also a big difference between just possible and preferable.

Precise locations for gas stations doesn't matter that much because you only need to be there maybe 5 minutes. If it's your food stop and the choice there at the gas station kinda sucks, fine, you just take a couple of minutes to refuel and drive a mile to the restaurant you want. But because recharging takes so much longer, you usually want to eat/shop/etc WHILE the car is charging, to kill that time. But your car is stuck at the charger. So that means you're limited to just the few choices (if any) near the charger.

That lack of choices and flexibility will be a significant inhibitor. (Unless/until charging times come way down.)
That's why I think 1000 mile range is the target. Charging has to happen overnight, or off hours. You spend almost basically zero time planning your trip/day around where gas stations are.
 

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That's why I think 1000 mile range is the target. Charging has to happen overnight, or off hours. You spend almost basically zero time planning your trip/day around where gas stations are.
While I agree that it's an issue, I think as long as they minimize it, they can get sizeable market share. Not 100%, but probably over 50%.

The practical limit for a full day of driving is probably no more than about 12 hours for most people. In ICE, that's usually 2 refuels now (roughly 3 250 mile legs). And even that's pretty aggressive. If they can get the # of stops in a BEV down to the same 2, I don't think too many people will balk at lousy restaurants or lack of other things to do nearby to kill the time. It's the 4-6 stops (as is commonly needed now) where the lack of choices and things to do gets magnified, and really adds up. 2 half hour "stuck there" stops would be OK, but 4-6 will be "Let's just buy ICE or PHEV" for many, I suspect.
 

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That's why I think 1000 mile range is the target. Charging has to happen overnight, or off hours. You spend almost basically zero time planning your trip/day around where gas stations are.
If high-powered DC fast charging are as ubiquitous as gas stations along interstates and secondary highways, then range greater than 400 miles isn't really necessary. The barrier is more along the lines of how quickly can the car recharge to maximize stoppage time that was going to happen anyways.

I'm somewhat worried that this first-gen Mach-E will be quickly overtaken in the recharging department and be obsolete in only 1-2 years. Despite having a 150kW capability, it takes between 25-100% longer to charge than rivals (VW ID4, Model Y, Kia CV, etc) which is just subpar.
 

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Can you buy an ice with 1000 mile range?
 

RobertP

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It depends on whether the current development on BEV's is going on or that this is an inbetween step towards another power source, like hydogen. A battery is not a good source to store energy and when charging is done in the evening and night and renewable energy is not a steady source (wind and solar being mostly used), there need to come another ways of storing energy.
 

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Why does an electric car have to carry all of its energy source with it all the time? Suppose there was a way of delivering some of a vehicle’s energy needs to it continuously, or nearly so?
 
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RonTCat

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Why does an electric car have to carry all of its energy source with it all the time? Suppose there was a way of delivering some of a vehicle’s energy needs to it continuously, or nearly so?
Yeah, just don't cross the beams.
 



 









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