Oversupply? Are EV’s struggling to sell?

[mkhuffman]

There is a good argument to say we are approaching The Chasm:

Geoffrey Moore wrote a book detailing the adoption of Tech, and I've read a few articles to suggest we have arrived at The Chasm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm

I didn't know there was a book, but this phenomenon was what I was thinking as well. It is a big change going from ICEV to BEV. It isn't like upgrading to the latest phone. So it makes sense there will be a slow down once most of the early adopters have taken the plunge. We early adopters get to experience the pain the rest of the world isn't ready for yet.

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[superdave80]

can't really do a road trip ( I am not gonna add 1.5 hours to my 5 hours ride )

I routinely make a 6-hour drive, and do a single stop for 40 minutes. How are you charging for 1.5 hours?

 

[superdave80]

How about the counter hypothesis: Ford is making them so fast that their dealers actually have vehicles in stock for a change. Why does that seem so bad?

Yeah, it's amazing how quickly people forget that dealerships use to be crazy crowded with vehicles for sale. Before COVID when I would go to a dealership, it was always, "Where the hell can I park?". Once COVID hit and I had to go to a dealership, I thought, "Where the hell are all the cars?".

 

[superdave80]

There's not a back log or back orders, but he says the Mach E is still hard to get and there's a several month wait if you order one.

He should just come out to California. My two local dealers each have over a dozen in stock.

You would just have to road-trip it across the country to get it home, though.

 

[Fat Mach]

I was at a Ford dealer yesterday, he reports the opposite. They're still having long waits and issues getting cars. There's not a back log or back orders, but he says the Mach E is still hard to get and there's a several month wait if you order one.

Last I looked my local dealer had 55 Mach-E's either in stock or on the way.

 

[moparguy]

I routinely make a 6-hour drive, and do a single stop for 40 minutes. How are you charging for 1.5 hours?

If I leave home at 100% I'll have to charge twice to arrive Scottsdale, AZ from San Diego, CA, 370 miles one way.

 

[Mach1E]

Let’s ask @dbsb3233? He swore he’d never use the Mach E for his frequent Denver-Vegas trips. How many Denver-Vegas round trips have you made in the Mach E Tim?

You never answered the question I asked @moparguy: Have you tried taking the Mach E to Phoenix or Vegas Or are you just assuming you’ll dislike the experience?

I’ve driven my Mach E MD-FL twice, MD-NY twice, and MD-IN once. When I rented a brand new GMC SUV for a 2-1/2 hour from Edmonton to Jasper on a recent business trip, I found myself wishing I had rented an electric. My experience road-tripping the Mach E has been great.

People assume you have to learn from your own mistakes.

I’m a 2nd child and know better.

I can learn from other people’s mistakes.

I’ve driven my Mach E on the highway plenty.

Driven my wife’s Aviator as well.

Never once did we wish we took the Mach E.

Even if it magically charged itself and you didn’t have to stop for 40 minutes every 2 hours……. The Aviator would still be a better road trip car.

But since you do have to stop more frequently to fuel…… that’s just the final thing that makes it worse.

 

[mazer]

I see a lot of F150s every time I drive past a Ford dealer. Is there a truck crisis too?

 

[Mach1E]

I have had zero issues with road trips in my Mach E and in my Rivian, so far. I am taking the Rivian on a Phoenix to Carlsbad, CA trip next week and did the same trip in the MME last summer. All my charges in the MME worked first time and I got good charging rates at every stop.

Sounds like you fit in the “not that bad” category.

Still no one fits in the “better than an ICE for road tripping” category.

The fact that you even mention “all the chargers worked” proves my point.

Ever heard a road trip story from an ICE where people even mention “all the gas stations worked?”

Of course not! Because it’s a surprise when all the chargers actually work. Usually there are broken chargers or a story about having to wait, or none available at a hotel etc.

In fact “refueling” is never mentioned on blogs about road trips in an ICE……….because it’s not worth mentioning.

 

[Mirak]

I am not surprised. BEVs are more expensive than the equivalent ICE vehicle. You can't make the car maintenance savings a benefit when the entry cost is so much higher.

And most people know highway traveling in a BEV requires a lot of stops, and a lot of charging. They may not fully understand how much that sucks, but many do. I tell my friends who ask about it. If you can always charge at home, it is awesome, way better than ICE. But as soon as you travel too far from home to make it back, it sucks. And it is getting worse.

I am doing a triathlon on Saturday, and it is a two-hour drive from my home. There is literally only one DCFC on the way, a 50 kW charger at a GM dealership. Seriously. One charger at one location. Oh, there is a L2 Tesla destination charger at the race location, but am I really going to park at a hotel, miles from the race, and steal electricity from that business? Assuming the EVSE is available, of course. Which it probably won't be.

Luckily that two hour drive is only 94 miles, so I should be able to make it there and back on one charge. Still. Most normal people would take an ICE vehicle. I am not normal. Most of the abnormal people have already purchased a BEV, I think.

Fact Check: True. I tell people who ask me the same. About half the time people come up to me at a DCFC to ask me how I like my EV, I'm on hold with the station's customer support.

 

[bdaughtry]

I had a torch red C5 coupe when I was 25. Was a great daily driver and a chick magnet of sorts. Didn't really experience the 'interview' often cause I lived in south east Michigan where corvettes were a dime a dozen. Put 45k miles on it in 3 years, and a month before turning it in I blew the transmission. Never drove it again.

I agree that we are the best advertisement for the vehicle. However, buying a car often comes down to the economics. That's where Ford and other OEMs should put ad dollars to break it down to people and help them get over the hump. Everyone gets so fixated on the range that is only important on road trips. How many road trips does the average consumer take per year?

Auto makers are still fixated on selling their ICE inventory. Just look at the deals and rates they're giving on the dying tech. Ford has been running truck and SUV TV adds here in the east since late spring. All ICE, no EV's, a strategy that makes you have to search out EV info. You know how we love low hanging fruit.

In my first meeting with the dealer I bought from he knew a little about Tesla, but nothing about the rest of his EV competition. I'm no genius but I do know how to find what I need to know. Unfortunately most folks ain't wired that way and won't find out about these great vehicles until they're "low hanging fruit".

 

[voxel]

I see a lot of F150s every time I drive past a Ford dealer. Is there a truck crisis too?

Yes. Large SUVs and trucks are sitting on lots for all carmakers.

Here's the latest days supply figures - https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-june-2023/

 

[Mike G]

So to add to the discussion and to give some additional context;

I drove past my dealer today and was expecting to see my recently traded '21J1 sitting near the charger parking space, but was surprised to see a white MME instead. So on the way back home I stopped in and had a chat with my salesman and he surprised me even further by saying that they had gotten 3 MME GTs in (yes, all 3 are GTs ?‍) and a White '23 Lightning....as stock. They didn't even know they were coming. Truck just showed up. I've purchased 3 EVs from this dealership and for over a year I was their primary EV customer, having bought two out of the four they sold in that time. They couldn't get them (just like all the other dealers, except this is not a big dealer with huge allocations).

Now they're getting them as stock! Truly a sea change.

 

[SyNRG]

And herein lies the problem. Why does it all have to be crossovers and "SUVs?" Surely we can get another body type.

Agreed, thus BRING BACK THE WAGON!

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Context is everything. Here are some charts of historical inventory.

I think things are changing, yes, but the current "high" inventory is not, on its own, a death knell for any vehicles.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_automobile_inventories_nsa

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA#

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