20-30 years for EV transition?

[Mach1E]

Efficiency and wattage per square meter are directly related. Less efficient panels require more square footage to produce the same wattage. The panels on my roof were 14.9% efficient when they were installed 11.5 years ago. If I were to upgrade today to panels that are 22.5% efficient, I'd get 50% more power for the same square footage. That's not an insignificant improvement for me, especially given the roof constraints I have.

It’s also not doubling every two years (Moore’s law). That was the point.

There are physical limitations to how efficient solar panels can get.

Just like there are physical limitations to how much energy density we can get out of batteries.

We will NEVER see a 100% efficient solar panel.

Just like a 100 kWh battery will never weigh 5 lbs and fit in a shoe box.

Moore’s law doesn’t apply here.

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[devmach-e]

It’s also not doubling every two years (Moore’s law). That was the point.

There are physical limitations to how efficient solar panels can get.

Just like there are physical limitations to how much energy density we can get out of batteries.

We will NEVER see a 100% efficient solar panel.

Just like a 100 kWh battery will never weigh 5 lbs and fit in a shoe box.

Moore’s law doesn’t apply here.

I never claimed Moore's law for integrated circuits or energy density for batteries was directly applicable here. Just pointing out there have been some pretty good strides in improving efficiency for panels. And batteries have continued to improve, too.

 

[Mach1E]

I never claimed Moore's law for integrated circuits or energy density for batteries was directly applicable here. Just pointing out there have been some pretty good strides in improving efficiency for panels. And batteries have continued to improve, too.

I agree on both points.

The only reason I brought up solar panels though was to use them as an example where Moore’s law doesn’t apply.

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