Battery tech progressing at a rapid pace

[johnmark]

It feels like every day there's a new breakthrough in battery tech. Solid state batteries are on pace to radically change the EV market - and anything requiring large power sources - over the next 5-10 years. The energy density, charging speed, and longevity will be radically better in the 2030s. If we're still alive ?

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/03/28/quantumscape-brushes-off-solid-state-battery-skeptics/

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[AliRafiee]

I’m still waiting for their stock to skyrocket.

 

[johnmark]

I’m still waiting for their stock to skyrocket.

Ha! Because of this article I checked on their financials. I wonder what the strategy is for these types of companies? Are they basically like small pharmas looking to get acquired as soon as their products look viable?

 

[MacherAWD]

I feel like I have been reading articles like this since I bought my Leaf back in 2016, yet in reality all we have seen is LFP rollout to lower trims. Not saying we arent close, but also saying all these companies are looking for press and funding.

 

[Jeff-NoVA]

I feel like I have been reading articles like this since I bought my Leaf back in 2016, yet in reality all we have seen is LFP rollout to lower trims. Not saying we arent close, but also saying all these companies are looking for press and funding.

Exactly. Every month brings another breathless story about a new battery breakthrough, and yet here we are years later with Lithium Ion in everything. Eventually there will be solid state batteries and other tech that makes EVs viable for everyone, but that day has not yet arrived.

 

[johnmark]

Exactly. Every month brings another breathless story about a new battery breakthrough, and yet here we are years later with Lithium Ion in everything. Eventually there will be solid state batteries and other tech that makes EVs viable for everyone, but that day has not yet arrived.

I don't think anyone claimed otherwise, least of all me

But actual beta-level prototypes coming available next year is a big deal. That means we're getting close to operationalizing products ready for market. That was not the case in prior years.

Not to mention, even with existing tech, we've made substantial progress on the energy density front.

I get it, there's a lot of "been there, done that. I'll believe it when I see it" attitudes, and for good reason. But we're talking about real, tangible progress with a rough timeline for bringing products to market. That part is new and wasn't the case just 2 years ago.

 

[johnmark]

I feel like I have been reading articles like this since I bought my Leaf back in 2016, yet in reality all we have seen is LFP rollout to lower trims. Not saying we arent close, but also saying all these companies are looking for press and funding.

There were articles in 2016 talking about beta prototypes coming out in a year? I don't think that's true.

 

[MacherAWD]

I don't think anyone claimed otherwise, least of all me

But actual beta-level prototypes coming available next year is a big deal. That means we're getting close to operationalizing products ready for market. That was not the case in prior years.

Not to mention, even with existing tech, we've made substantial progress on the energy density front.

I get it, there's a lot of "been there, done that. I'll believe it when I see it" attitudes, and for good reason. But we're talking about real, tangible progress with a rough timeline for bringing products to market. That part is new and wasn't the case just 2 years ago.

Just wait until Toyota buys the company and shuts it down, or exxon.

There were articles in 2016 talking about beta prototypes coming out in a year? I don't think that's true.

Can't recall but I have been told by many friends and strangers since 2016 "I am waiting for Solid state, its coming soon...."

 

[johnmark]

Just wait until Toyota buys the company and shuts it down, or exxon.


Can't recall but I have been told by many friends and strangers since 2016 "I am waiting for Solid state, its coming soon...."

The last time I really looked into this was 2 years ago, and solid state was discussed in terms of potential benefits and vague timelines. The language has changed - now we're talking about measurable benefits and actual timelines with roadmaps. From a manufacturing standpoint that's a very different conversation from just 2 years ago.

But yes, it's probably worth taking a critical view and withholding enthusiasm until there's something I can actually buy. Sorry, couldn't help myself - I got visions of my next car being a solid state model in 2031.

 

[BMT1071]

The kicker comes at the end of the article: "No word yet on cost..."

 

[johnmark]

Yup - I did catch that.

 

[jeffMachE]

Exactly. Every month brings another breathless story about a new battery breakthrough, and yet here we are years later with Lithium Ion in everything. Eventually there will be solid state batteries and other tech that makes EVs viable for everyone, but that day has not yet arrived.

While I agree we can simply say "Lithuim-Ion in everything", I think that's too simplistic. Battery Tech for cars, taken as a whole (cell chemistry, energy density (both volumetric and weight), cell design, packaging, etc.) has been "improving" at roughly 8-10% per year for over a decade. Most of the improvements are small, but taken together, batteries are quite a bit better now than they were in the mid-teens. Solid State, though it seems to be quantum leap, is really part of this overall picture. IMHO, the 2 thresholds that we need to cross to make this viable for "everyone" are 350 true EPA range (obv. lower in winter) and 20 minute avg charging. When we cross those 2 thresholds, we'll see the uptake accelerate. I figure that's about 2 years away, and hopefully our charging infrastructure will have caught up by then. I don't think its all about solid state, or any other specific technology - vast majority of people don't care. Whatever tech or combination of tech that gets us there (that doesn't result $75K+ vehicle prices) is what we need.

 

[Snakebitten]

No matter what the actual future holds for EV battery tech, TODAY is the day I choose to get to work and back using fuel that is delivered with copper wire, instead of a rubber hose.

Or put another way, while I look forward to the advances in electron storage that are inevitable, I'm melting Continental rubber very quietly in a couple of hours. With an ear to ear grin.

 

[Jeff-NoVA]

While I agree we can simply say "Lithuim-Ion in everything", I think that's too simplistic. Battery Tech for cars, taken as a whole (cell chemistry, energy density (both volumetric and weight), cell design, packaging, etc.) has been "improving" at roughly 8-10% per year for over a decade. Most of the improvements are small, but taken together, batteries are quite a bit better now than they were in the mid-teens. Solid State, though it seems to be quantum leap, is really part of this overall picture. IMHO, the 2 thresholds that we need to cross to make this viable for "everyone" are 350 true EPA range (obv. lower in winter) and 20 minute avg charging. When we cross those 2 thresholds, we'll see the uptake accelerate. I figure that's about 2 years away, and hopefully our charging infrastructure will have caught up by then. I don't think its all about solid state, or any other specific technology - vast majority of people don't care. Whatever tech or combination of tech that gets us there (that doesn't result $75K+ vehicle prices) is what we need.

Completely agree. My point was only that we should take these kinds of press releases with a huge grain of salt. We’ve been seeing big promises for years and the improvements have largely been incremental. Not that they aren’t real or worthwhile, but they haven't been game-changing.

 

[AliRafiee]

Ha! Because of this article I checked on their financials. I wonder what the strategy is for these types of companies? Are they basically like small pharmas looking to get acquired as soon as their products look viable?

Bill Gates and VW are the big investors in the company.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuantumScape

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