Future battery tech vs. current prices

[Glen Boise]

This is where recycling technologies and newer battery chemistries are valuable. I follow LiCycle and I know that Argonne National Laboratories in Lemont, IL has been experimenting with how to recycle LI batteries cost effectively and with low environmental impact.

If you look around you will find that there are companies actually recycling LI batteries today. The work at Argonne is seeking to improve the cost effectiveness and lower the impact. Also, there are other companies that are reusing old BEV batteries for the massive battery packs used to provide power when the wind stops blowing or the sun goes down.

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[Fremont Kid]

If you look around you will find that there are companies actually recycling LI batteries today. The work at Argonne is seeking to improve the cost effectiveness and lower the impact. Also, there are other companies that are reusing old BEV batteries for the massive battery packs used to provide power when the wind stops blowing or the sun goes down.

Exactly. These are very good points. I can envision using my extended range battery at end of vehicle life as storage for solar/wind generated energy.

 

[spgordon57]

I recently crossed the 30k mile mark and have kept my vehicle in relatively great shape (minus the low quality paint vs. Midwest roads). I could feel differently in the future, but as long as I can keep up with it I think I can hang onto this car for a very long time... Assuming battery replacement is affordable. In the spirit of sustainability I'm hoping to see better options than this:

Currently on Lakelandfordparts.com

What do you feel is more likely? Costs of current batteries goes down, or Ford offers options for retrofits into new battery tech?

Edit: If you're the "I'm selling this car in two years anyway" I'm really not interested in your opinion or hot take.

Due to the current and likely future cost of assembled battery packs I see no scenario where it makes sense for you to sway out an old battery pack for a new one - regardless of how many years you hold onto your car. If your current pack lasts for 8-10 years (it has a long warranty), the cost to replace it by the end of that period will be way above the value of the car.

 

[mkhuffman]

Due to the current and likely future cost of assembled battery packs I see no scenario where it makes sense for you to sway out an old battery pack for a new one - regardless of how many years you hold onto your car. If your current pack lasts for 8-10 years (it has a long warranty), the cost to replace it by the end of that period will be way above the value of the car.

That is likely true, but I expect the cost of battery packs to decline over time, and capacity to increase. It is possible the replacement cost will be similar to replacing an engine in an ICE. That could be worth it, if you want to keep the car around. And you could potentially get more than the original range out of it.

 

[Shayne]

That is likely true, but I expect the cost of battery packs to decline over time, and capacity to increase. It is possible the replacement cost will be similar to replacing an engine in an ICE. That could be worth it, if you want to keep the car around. And you could potentially get more than the original range out of it.

a breakthrough in batteries that increases energy density and reduces costs. Their are a couple of people working on that right now. Who knows what 10 years will bring.

 

[spgordon57]

That is likely true, but I expect the cost of battery packs to decline over time, and capacity to increase. It is possible the replacement cost will be similar to replacing an engine in an ICE. That could be worth it, if you want to keep the car around. And you could potentially get more than the original range out of it.

That's possible but highly speculative. My sense is that mfg scale will reduce the cost of battery packs but only to a point, and certainly not enough to justify keeping a 10 year old car for any reason other than to say you can. Moreover, I expect there to be advances in battery tech for new models where the range in affordable models will increase by a wide margin. Also quality control will improve: many of the beefs you read on this forum reflect the fact that EVs are still in their infancy and will likely improve drastically.

 

[mkhuffman]

That's possible but highly speculative. My sense is that mfg scale will reduce the cost of battery packs but only to a point, and certainly not enough to justify keeping a 10 year old car for any reason other than to say you can. Moreover, I expect there to be advances in battery tech for new models where the range in affordable models will increase by a wide margin. Also quality control will improve: many of the beefs you read on this forum reflect the fact that EVs are still in their infancy and will likely improve drastically.

We are both speculating, and your speculation is reasonable. We will find out in about 10 years!

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

That is likely true, but I expect the cost of battery packs to decline over time, and capacity to increase. It is possible the replacement cost will be similar to replacing an engine in an ICE. That could be worth it, if you want to keep the car around. And you could potentially get more than the original range out of it.

The question will always be: Replace a module or two with a similar module or replace the entire pack. The latter will be significantly more expensive per replacement, but the former will be more expensive when you add up all of the module costs over time. I'm holding out for the latter as a refresh, but it may require a new module or several to manage the upgrade. I would bet that we see an aftermarket "upgrade" HVBJB and Battery Control Module within a few years.

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