Future battery tech vs. current prices

[AlpaChino]

I recently crossed the 30k mile mark and have kept my vehicle in relatively great shape (minus the low quality paint vs. Midwest roads). I could feel differently in the future, but as long as I can keep up with it I think I can hang onto this car for a very long time... Assuming battery replacement is affordable. In the spirit of sustainability I'm hoping to see better options than this:

Currently on Lakelandfordparts.com

What do you feel is more likely? Costs of current batteries goes down, or Ford offers options for retrofits into new battery tech?

Edit: If you're the "I'm selling this car in two years anyway" I'm really not interested in your opinion or hot take.

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[Blue highway]

changing the battery involves a lot of software changes in the car so I don't expect to put a different type of battery in any existing car. Nor do I expect to ever put a new entire replacement battery in the car.

I expect the MME will be serviced the same way old Prius or Teslas are... buy dropping the pack and replacing one or two battery modules with good used ones. That is high hundreds or low thousands... not tens of thousands. I expect this will be at some mileage >150K for me.

 

[ArthurDOB]

That's about two-thirds the cost of a moderately equipped Premium! That price can't be right.

 

[Blue highway]

That's about two-thirds the cost of a moderately equipped Premium! That price can't be right.

That's a dealer price... but yeah, the price is right... that is why we aren't going to see 600 mile range cars anytime soon. Big batteries are the reason EVs are expensive.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I don't expect to have to replace the battery. I expect a good 20-30 or even 40 years lifetime on this battery before 20% degradation.

 

[hybrid2bev]

I think there will be lower cost replacements in the future. But it won’t matter because the car will wear out before the battery does.

 

[Neil4Real]

I expect the MME will be serviced the same way old Prius or Teslas are... buy dropping the pack and replacing one or two battery modules with good used ones. That is high hundreds or low thousands... not tens of thousands. I expect this will be at some mileage >150K for me.

Does this mean that they generally only replace enough modules/cells to get your battery back over the warranty threshold and now back to 90/100%?

 

[21st Century Pony]

I recently crossed the 30k mile mark and have kept my vehicle in relatively great shape (minus the low quality paint vs. Midwest roads). I could feel differently in the future, but as long as I can keep up with it I think I can hang onto this car for a very long time... Assuming battery replacement is affordable. In the spirit of sustainability I'm hoping to see better options than this:

Currently on Lakelandfordparts.com

What do you feel is more likely? Costs of current batteries goes down, or Ford offers options for retrofits into new battery tech?

Edit: If you're the "I'm selling this car in two years anyway" I'm really not interested in your opinion or hot take.

Good post... I am just over 28 thousand miles and curious about the same thing. I do want to keep the Pony for a good while...

The four hybrids I owned since 2003 have not had any noticeable battery degradation that I could see... I sold one (Prius 1st Gen) because I got an irresistible offer to trade up... the car was fine. The Prius 2d Gen got hit by lightning while parked in front of my house and insurance totaled it because so many control modules were scrambled the mechanics just couldn't make any headway, and the cost to replace all the modules pretty much totaled the car. Prius Plug-In Gen 3 did start to wear out, just over 100+ thousand miles... but not the battery or the main drive line but all the nit-noid cheapie stuff like the plastic windshield washer fluid container which got old enough to crack, a wheel bearing that decided to quit, etc etc. The Ford Fusion Energi, just prior to the Mach E... same thing. At 126 thousand miles it was just starting on the Endless Money Pit road.

So, based on those four histories, I fear the Mach E's basic "car" components will probably start to flake out before the big battery degrades a lot... but of course I just don't know. I'd like to see ten years and / or 200 thousand miles with this car. It's a really nice car. Ford seems to have put a big design and quality control effort into this car (other than the front trunk cargo rings ).

 

[HuntingPudel]

Does this mean that they generally only replace enough modules/cells to get your battery back over the warranty threshold and now back to 90/100%?

I think it means that it’s more likely for a cell to fail than for the entire pack to degrade to the point that it needs to be replaced. If a cell fails, replacement of the cell is preferable to replacing the pack since it’s a lot less expensive. A good used cell is probably a teensy bit better than a new one since it will be more like the already-existing cells in the pack. ??

 

[AlpaChino]

I realize I'm still early in the relationship with the car at 30k miles, but carscanner indicated hvb state of health at 94%. Roughly 3% loss each year if it's accurate. I dcfc 3 or 4 times a year, and charge to 100% about 3 times a month but immediately start driving. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I need to go back to the stock tires and rims... ?

In the Midwest I have to make every mile count unfortunately. NEVI progress is slow and I've already irritated the Indiana "VW Mitigation funds" committee by asking questions on live zoom meetings without being a "committee member". ?

 

[Mach-Lee]

Wow, the price has gone up like $10k in the past year. Last time I checked the battery was only like $28k.

 

[AlpaChino]

Wow, the price has gone up like $10k in the past year. Last time I checked the battery was only like $28k.

I know, right? Damn!

 

[azulejost]

I realize I'm still early in the relationship with the car at 30k miles, but carscanner indicated hvb state of health at 94%. Roughly 3% loss each year if it's accurate. I dcfc 3 or 4 times a year, and charge to 100% about 3 times a month but immediately start driving. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I need to go back to the stock tires and rims... ?

In the Midwest I have to make every mile count unfortunately. NEVI progress is slow and I've already irritated the Indiana "VW Mitigation funds" committee by asking questions on live zoom meetings without being a "committee member". ?

From what I’ve seen posted from other EVs, there is greater degradation within the first 1-2 years and initial 10-20k miles then the degradation rate slows significantly over the next 5+ years and 80-150k miles.

 

[Shayne]

Does this mean that they generally only replace enough modules/cells to get your battery back over the warranty threshold and now back to 90/100%?

What I understand is they need to provide you something with the degradation to be expected with a certain mileage/age vehicle. It does not need to be brand new and most likely will not be.

If the case and components are still good I think just swap the battery modules would be the way to go. 20 years from now the replacement may be the same power spec but half the weight. That would increase range and get some thinking.

 

[RickMachE]

I realize I'm still early in the relationship with the car at 30k miles, but carscanner indicated hvb state of health at 94%. Roughly 3% loss each year if it's accurate. I dcfc 3 or 4 times a year, and charge to 100% about 3 times a month but immediately start driving. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I need to go back to the stock tires and rims... ?

In the Midwest I have to make every mile count unfortunately. NEVI progress is slow and I've already irritated the Indiana "VW Mitigation funds" committee by asking questions on live zoom meetings without being a "committee member". ?

If the HVB state of health is accurate (was it in the mid 70s?), that is 6% loss in 30,000 miles, not 2 years. So at 100,000 miles you will be at 6x3.3 = 80%, IF it is linear.

But it is likely not linear...

I'd also add that looking up the price of something today, that you might need to buy AFTER 4.7 years (assuming it meets the 70% threshold at 8 years / 100,000 miles, but then you NEED to replace it after that), is somewhat silly. Battery prices will come down in the future.

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