Advertisement



Escape/Kuga recall financial mess

OP

kdryden99

Well-Known Member
First Name
Richard
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Messages
242
Reaction score
194
Location
Montreal Canada
First Name
Richard
Vehicles
Nissan Sentra Spec-V, Nissan Rogue, Future Infinite Blue Mach E
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #31
I believe the price per kWh of the EV batteries has been going down and storage capability goes up and this in time of increasing demand.

GM/LG battery uses less cobalt which is the main commodity constraint.

CATL battery (Xpeng, Tesla, BYD) offers "1 million miles".

Battery tech and mfg scale are both pushing price per kWh lower.
I agree but we are in early statge of demand nowhere near peak demand. Peak demand will be 10yrs from now. We'll see rhat the pricing looks like then, i believe like dbsb3233 these prices wont drop as quickly as expected. I know tesla cut their pricing on the S but that goes to show just how overpriced that car was. Clients were paying for the R&D and not quality, but OEM's wont necessarily charge for the R&D. Theyll absorb that cost upfront and try to dominate and recover that cost long term so it'll be a while for prices to drop. Since every oem will do this there wont be much undercutting just who's product will be better and who has the most resources will win.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Messages
3,484
Reaction score
3,189
Location
Colorado, USA
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
2013 Ford Escape
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
i believe like dbsb3233 these prices wont drop as quickly as expected.
Just to clarify... I was saying *if* EV demand outpaces the expanding battery supply.

I'm not so sure it will though. It currently is (thus why Ford could only secure around 50k, and others like the Kona and Niro have struggled). But in a couple of years I could see that possibly reversing with all these new battery plants coming online. We could end up with an oversupply period for a few years.

While I do expect BEVs to grow significantly this decade, there's still a lot of consumer hurdles in the US that could make market share grow slower than some are expecting. For many, PHEV is a better fit, and the battery cell requirements are far smaller for those. And ICE will likely still remain king for at least this decade.
 

LYTMCQ

Well-Known Member
First Name
Lyt
Joined
Feb 2, 2020
Messages
1,496
Reaction score
698
Location
Portland
First Name
Lyt
Vehicles
Telsa Model 3 LR AWD
Country flag
Peak demand will be 10yrs from now.
"A recent peer-reviewed analysis found that lithium-ion battery prices have come down about 14 percent per year since 2007 and the long-term trend is also quite clear, in a standard learning curve effect, of 6 percent to 9 percent reduction in price for every doubling of production volume."

"With known lithium “resources” at 39.5 million tons, we get about 50 years of supply with 100 Gigafactories, which is a bit more comforting, but still not exactly a viable long-term solution."

https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...ntain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m

Kind of like "peak oil" that never happened with the added caveat that Lithium in the EV batteries is 100% recyclable.

Who knows what situation will look like in 50 years.

We have 30 year to cut emissions 90% from 2000 levels. We appear to have enough lithium at current tech levels for 50 years. Plenty of time for tech to develop.
 
OP

kdryden99

Well-Known Member
First Name
Richard
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Messages
242
Reaction score
194
Location
Montreal Canada
First Name
Richard
Vehicles
Nissan Sentra Spec-V, Nissan Rogue, Future Infinite Blue Mach E
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #34
"A recent peer-reviewed analysis found that lithium-ion battery prices have come down about 14 percent per year since 2007 and the long-term trend is also quite clear, in a standard learning curve effect, of 6 percent to 9 percent reduction in price for every doubling of production volume."

"With known lithium “resources” at 39.5 million tons, we get about 50 years of supply with 100 Gigafactories, which is a bit more comforting, but still not exactly a viable long-term solution."

https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...ntain-the-growth-of-the-lithium-ion-battery-m

Kind of like "peak oil" that never happened with the added caveat that Lithium in the EV batteries is 100% recyclable.

Who knows what situation will look like in 50 years.

We have 30 year to cut emissions 90% from 2000 levels. We appear to have enough lithium at current tech levels for 50 years. Plenty of time for tech to develop.
So right now EV production is limited to battery production because of factories and not resources according to this article?
 
OP

kdryden99

Well-Known Member
First Name
Richard
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Messages
242
Reaction score
194
Location
Montreal Canada
First Name
Richard
Vehicles
Nissan Sentra Spec-V, Nissan Rogue, Future Infinite Blue Mach E
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #36
So right now EV production is limited to battery production because of factories and not resources according to this article?
The article is from 2015. Im willing to bet things changed and there is still the nickel and cobalt issue
 

LYTMCQ

Well-Known Member
First Name
Lyt
Joined
Feb 2, 2020
Messages
1,496
Reaction score
698
Location
Portland
First Name
Lyt
Vehicles
Telsa Model 3 LR AWD
Country flag
So right now EV production is limited to battery production because of factories and not resources according to this article?
Don't think it is limited at all. Specific to Ford Mach E, no battery supply issues.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Messages
3,484
Reaction score
3,189
Location
Colorado, USA
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
2013 Ford Escape
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
Don't think it is limited at all. Specific to Ford Mach E, no battery supply issues.
The 50,000 limit on the 2021 MME was "blamed" on battery supply limits. But I suspect that's probably about all they would have attempted for the first year even without battery supply constraints. It's such a new type of vehicle and new market for them that they probably wanted to see how it went first before committing to a bigger number.

Looks like they've passed that test though, seemingly with flying colors. The vehicle looks great and the orders strong.
 
OP

kdryden99

Well-Known Member
First Name
Richard
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Messages
242
Reaction score
194
Location
Montreal Canada
First Name
Richard
Vehicles
Nissan Sentra Spec-V, Nissan Rogue, Future Infinite Blue Mach E
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #39
The 50,000 limit on the 2021 MME was "blamed" on battery supply limits. But I suspect that's probably about all they would have attempted for the first year even without battery supply constraints. It's such a new type of vehicle and new market for them that they probably wanted to see how it went first before committing to a bigger number.

Looks like they've passed that test though, seemingly with flying colors. The vehicle looks great and the orders strong.
I believe it was due to the assembly line restructure. When you are trying to make ICE, hybrid and EV's you basically have different assembly line structures. So they cant make as many Mach-E's as lets say Fusions. Your assembly line is already setup for ICE vehicles so it doesnt require as much modification if youre building Escapes and Fusions, vs the Mach E
 

LYTMCQ

Well-Known Member
First Name
Lyt
Joined
Feb 2, 2020
Messages
1,496
Reaction score
698
Location
Portland
First Name
Lyt
Vehicles
Telsa Model 3 LR AWD
Country flag
So right now EV production is limited to battery production because of factories and not resources according to this article?
Nope. No limits. Battery and EV plants going up simultaneously.

For Mach E buyers, no battery constraints.

Don't see any current EV production constrained by battery supply. Fair to say due to Covid-19 sales issues, we probably have a battery surplus.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Messages
3,484
Reaction score
3,189
Location
Colorado, USA
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
2013 Ford Escape
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
I believe it was due to the assembly line restructure. When you are trying to make ICE, hybrid and EV's you basically have different assembly line structures. So they cant make as many Mach-E's as lets say Fusions. Your assembly line is already setup for ICE vehicles so it doesnt require as much modification if youre building Escapes and Fusions, vs the Mach E
Ford could handle the assembly line just fine. They may be the best in the world at that. It was an out-of-service plant that they completely retooled anyway.

Ford said many times that it was battery supply constraints that limited 2021MY production to 50,000. Although there's some hints that they've been able to get a few thousand more.

"We project that sales volumes will be limited to about 50,000 globally the first year due to battery supply."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ford-mustang-mach-e-electric-suv-production/
 



 









Advertisement


Top