Reopening America ?

[Sweetwater]

Sponsored

 

[Ken7]

So what could the impact be of a continued closure of America or an overly cautious reopening? Here’s one assessment from Betsy McCaughey, former Lt. Gov of N.Y. and Chairman of the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths:

Betsy McCaughey and others have argued that it is not carefully reopening the country that threatens Americans, but as the weeks pass, it is keeping the country in lockdown that could be much more harmful.

McCaughey wrote in a recent New York Post piece, “Every 1 percent hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet.”

 

[ChasingCoral]

Here are a couple of stories about the economic downturn we are forcing upon ourselves and billions of others across the world. Why do we see little about this in the media?

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/th...economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...f-thousands-of-children-in-2020-idUSKBN21Y2X7

Where are the stories about people losing their jobs, losing their businesses?

Where are the stories of people that are planning to file for bankruptcy?

Where are the stories of people who are home in pain because they can't get "elective" surgery?

Maybe you're just not reading the right media sources. Those liberal rags you like to denigrate, The Washington Post and the New York Times have been running stories daily about job loss, business closure and bankruptcy, and not only the delays in "elective" surgery, like my wife's diagnostic test but also delays in cancer treatments.

They've also been pointing out the huge tax cut mostly benefiting folks making $1M per year or more that Senate Republicans snuck in the stimulus. Also about how most of the stimulus money never made it to small businesses but instead went to multi-million dollar chains run by well-connected donors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/14/coronavirus-law-congress-tax-change/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...e0fea6-7f76-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...bd85de-8026-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

How about potential damage to pension funds? https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/17/next-covid-19-victim-public-pension-funds/

Or coal companies using this as another excuse to cut miners' benefits?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/08/coal-black-lung-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/michigan-unemployment-coronavirus/

 

[Ken7]

Well it's good to know the Reps 'snuck in' a tax cut. At least the Dems aren't holding up the 2nd part of the stimulus for crap THEY want to put in that's unrelated to anything the citizenry actually needs.

It's also good to see dear old Nancy denying that when she encouraged people to go to Chinatown when the virus was spreading, that she wasn't really in denial of the virus like the Dems say Trump was. No no, Nancy did that to stop racism against the Chinese. Good grief, I listen to this crap and just shake my head in disbelief that anyone could believe it.

I give up on this one-sided BS.

 

[ChasingCoral]

So, you stated:

Based on recent evidence emerging, the virus seems highly unlikely to be a major issue to anyone without an underlying condition.

When I challenged you on this point, you replied:

I think fewer accusations and little more constructive dialog would be great for all of us. Here are a few stories from the past week. A couple are referring to the same study.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...e-but-few-symptoms-in-pregnant-women/2372863/

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200418/new-model-shows-covid-more-widespread-less-severe

http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/covid-19_infection_rate.pdf

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/first-minor-coronavirus-new-york-city-dies-n1172171

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-coronavirus-antibodies-infection-higher-1498740

All but one of these articles say nothing about underlying conditions. Nada. Don't even use the word underlying, much less discuss the topic.

The article from Reason.Com shows huge political bias in its mis-comparison of the California antibody studies with seasonal influenza. It's headline "COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study" is hugely misleading. Unlike the Newsweek article on the same study, Reason.com added a comparison they study authors didn't make because they knew better. The actual article, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf doesn't compare the case fatality rate (CFR) of Covid-19 with seasonal influenza. That is something Reason.com did (and Newsweek did not). I'm sure the authors of the study knew such a comparison would be scientifically indefensible. Why? Because we don't conduct that sort of comprehensive testing of seasonal influenza and the only tests of people for influenza serum antibodies have been very small research trial. Therefore a complete population study can't be compared directly to statistics that come from influenza illness cases. Epidemiologists know well that most flu cases are never reported, making CFR statistics based on influenza illness (the numbers most commonly cited) much higher than total influenza CFR rates were the statistics to include asymptomatic cases. Reason.com is comparing full population exposure numbers (symptomatic and asymptomatic CFR of Covid-19) with symptomatic CFR of seasonal influenza.

Oh, and supporting your case on underlying conditions? They don't mention it either.

So, let's treat your assertion directly with actual evidence:
Is the mortality risk much higher for individuals with underlying conditions? Yes
CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) from 3 April:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm
"Based on preliminary U.S. data, persons with underlying health conditions such as diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease, appear to be at higher risk for severe COVID-19–associated disease than persons without these conditions."
By the way, that 3 April CDC report includes current and former smokers in "underlying conditions".

However, let's also recall that 40-50% of Americans have "underlying conditions":

"Generally incurable and ongoing, chronic diseases affect approximately 133 million Americans,
representing more than 40% of the total population of this country. By 2020, that number is projected to grow to an estimated 157 million, with 81 million having multiple conditions. About half of all adults have a chronic condition, and approximately 8 percent of children ages 5 to 17 were reported by their parents to have limited activities due to at least one chronic disease."
https://nationalhealthcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AboutChronicDisease.pdf based on CDC statistics.

As we look at later reports from the CDC,
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
"Approximately 90% of hospitalized patients identified through COVID-NET had one or more underlying conditions, the most common being obesity, hypertension, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease."
Of course, that is only the hospitalized cases. "COVID-NET does not collect data on nonhospitalized patients; thus, it was not possible to compare the prevalence of underlying condi- tions in hospitalized versus nonhospitalized patients. Many of the documented underlying conditions among hospitalized COVID-19 patients are highly prevalent in the United States."

That 1 out of every 10 hospitalized patients with no known underlying conditions. You have a far better than 1 in 10 chance of walking across a busy interstate highway without suffering severe injury or death but I'll bet you wouldn't recommend taking that chance. Serious consequences for persons with no underlying conditions (only 50 adult population) are far from highly unlikely.

 

[ChasingCoral]

A lot of good info on this Thread but no one is saying they are ready
to go out and smell the roses. Are you ready ? Will you ? This is what
we want to know. Talk all the tests you want. The point here is are
you going outside and and spend money at stores and avoid crowds ?
Now the PROTESTERS are upsetting the reopening !!! They gather and
protest with no PPE and go home across every state. Is one of them
your neighbor ? Bringing home the virus ? This is getting out of hand
and spreading more virus because of their actions.

Sweetwater,
There was a good article about this in today's Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...um=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

It discusses what it will really take to restore consumer confidence. It is based, in part, on a University of Michigan study that just came out:
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=65096
An important part of their results found health to be a much greater concern than finances:
"There will be no national consensus, nor a uniform restart of the economy. Consumers’ judgements will be based on science, experience, and emotion. Moreover, the fears generated by the coronavirus will not completely disappear anytime soon. Residual fears of exposure to some virus may still limit people’s willingness to be in crowds at sport stadiums, theaters, airplanes, cruises, large shopping malls, or even shake hands at the workplace or social events. While most of these changes in behaviors will not be permanent, they will certainly persist over the next few years. Moreover, many spending preferences and shopping habits may have been permanently changed by consumers’ recent experiences. Although recessions are notorious for reshaping economies, this downturn will entail many more changes in the makeup of the business sector as well as the working, spending, and shopping habits of consumers."

Much restoration of the old economic situation is going to require individuals to be confident in their safety to reenter crowds. Some of what we saw in the past is unlikely to return. The real question is how the next standard of economic behavior will look. You can certainly expect a further increase in online shopping.

 

[Sweetwater]

The information posts keep on coming. That's good as everyone can voice
their opinion. We learn some and we disagree also. Still not on this Thread
is what I had asked in the beginning. IF the slow opening of shops etc. starts
are YOU WILLING to go out and join the crowds ? Truth be it I am not. Yes I
want to do my part but damn it they can not open this soon. So now tell
us here and now will YOU participate ?

 

[pbojanoski]

Maybe you're just not reading the right media sources. Those liberal rags you like to denigrate, The Washington Post and the New York Times have been running stories daily about job loss, business closure and bankruptcy, and not only the delays in "elective" surgery, like my wife's diagnostic test but also delays in cancer treatments.

They've also been pointing out the huge tax cut mostly benefiting folks making $1M per year or more that Senate Republicans snuck in the stimulus. Also about how most of the stimulus money never made it to small businesses but instead went to multi-million dollar chains run by well-connected donors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/14/coronavirus-law-congress-tax-change/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...e0fea6-7f76-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...bd85de-8026-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

How about potential damage to pension funds? https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/17/next-covid-19-victim-public-pension-funds/

Or coal companies using this as another excuse to cut miners' benefits?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/08/coal-black-lung-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/michigan-unemployment-coronavirus/

First and foremost, I haven't denigrated any "rag". If I did anything, I suggested that all news media are biased. I'll except your apology if you are big enough to provide one.

Are you suggesting that the huge economic issues and reduced medical care for non-COVID-19 related issues are getting big coverage in the general media? Cable news, websites, and the like the majority of people actually look at? Are there daily stories about how each day of shutdown will create long lasting economic AND health woes?

I see, unlike me and much like LYTMCQ, you've decided to make this a political exercise instead of constructively looking for a path forward. I see your mask has been lifted. Hopefully the one that keeps you safe from the virus stays on.

 

[eager2own]

It's also good to see dear old Nancy denying that when she encouraged people to go to Chinatown when the virus was spreading, that she wasn't really in denial of the virus like the Dems say Trump was. No no, Nancy did that to stop racism against the Chinese. Good grief, I listen to this crap and just shake my head in disbelief that anyone could believe it.

I give up on this one-sided BS.

I don't usually post on these political threads but:
I do believe that the early (and unfortunately continuing) attacks on our Asian-American, fellow citizens were unfounded. I did welcome any efforts to counter hate targeted at their community and to paint them as riskier than those shopping at a Whole Foods or Starbucks.
I do think that comments made 6 weeks ago in school to my 10-year-old, South Korean son by classmates accusing him of having the Coronavirus were fueled by ignorance and racism. I did see how distraught he was by that and, therefore, I do think messaging from the leadership should not have been that we attack, accuse, exclude or otherwise lash out at our fellow Americans.

 

[pbojanoski]

However, let's also recall that 40-50% of Americans have "underlying conditions":

"Generally incurable and ongoing, chronic diseases affect approximately 133 million Americans,
representing more than 40% of the total population of this country. By 2020, that number is projected to grow to an estimated 157 million, with 81 million having multiple conditions. About half of all adults have a chronic condition, and approximately 8 percent of children ages 5 to 17 were reported by their parents to have limited activities due to at least one chronic disease."
https://nationalhealthcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AboutChronicDisease.pdf based on CDC statistics.

That 1 out of every 10 hospitalized patients with no known underlying conditions. You have a far better than 1 in 10 chance of walking across a busy interstate highway without suffering severe injury or death but I'll bet you wouldn't recommend taking that chance. Serious consequences for persons with no underlying conditions (only 50 adult population) are far from highly unlikely.

My main point was that this virus seems to be MUCH less lethal than the general news media is touting. I focused on stories that are emerging that the mortality rate is very low compared to the raw numbers seen when comparing confirmed cases and deaths.

As you already agreed, underlying conditions make the COVID-19 outcome significantly worse. So why are you arguing with me on that point???

I agree that there is a large portion of the population with underlying condition, but I fail to see how the number is anywhere near the 40% number. COVID-19 risk is associated with certain underlying conditions, not all as far as I've seen. A number I've heard is closer to 20% for conditions related to COVID-19 outcomes.

And I've been saying from the start that those WITHOUT underlying conditions should be the first to get back out into the economy. Mounting evidence for under 65 with no underlying condition shows the mortality rate is very low, probably well under 1%. And with doing all the mitigation actions, the chance to get it should be low on top of that.

How many people will die due to a failing economy or missed healthcare due to this lockdown? Where DO YOU balance that with trying to stay safe from COVID-19??? THAT IS MY ONLY QUESTION! (That there are those who would rather make political fights instead of looking for constructive answers is incredibly frustrating.)

I really do think all of us need to take a breath and really LISTEN to others and challenge your own assumptions before spouting off. You might actually learn something if you do.

 

[pbojanoski]

They've also been pointing out the huge tax cut mostly benefiting folks making $1M per year or more that Senate Republicans snuck in the stimulus. Also about how most of the stimulus money never made it to small businesses but instead went to multi-million dollar chains run by well-connected donors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/14/coronavirus-law-congress-tax-change/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...e0fea6-7f76-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...bd85de-8026-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

How about potential damage to pension funds? https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/17/next-covid-19-victim-public-pension-funds/

Or coal companies using this as another excuse to cut miners' benefits?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/08/coal-black-lung-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/michigan-unemployment-coronavirus/

I also see you seem to use The Washington Post as your go to source. I would suggest you should start varying your choice of sources. No doubt focusing on only certain "news" organizations for information will leave you severely lacking not only in news, but in perspective.

And I suggest that for everyone regardless of political affiliation or ideology. All news organizations are biased. Challenging the positions and looking for alternative options is a smart way to stay informed on where we are and where we should go.

 

[pbojanoski]

The information posts keep on coming. That's good as everyone can voice
their opinion. We learn some and we disagree also. Still not on this Thread
is what I had asked in the beginning. IF the slow opening of shops etc. starts
are YOU WILLING to go out and join the crowds ? Truth be it I am not. Yes I
want to do my part but damn it they can not open this soon. So now tell
us here and now will YOU participate ?

I'm not joining "crowds" initially, but I will use the currently suggested mitigation techniques while I do go back out to stores, restaurants, work, etc. and actually live my life.

I refuse to live my life cowering in my home waiting for the mediocre at best "ruling class" to tell me when I can come out again. (And yes, "ruling class" is bipartisan.)

There is too much to lose while we all are staying in our homes. The government really doesn't know too much more than we do, if anything, and are certainly more hampered by ineptitude and largess to get anything done when it needs to get done.

Think about it.

 

[pbojanoski]

Sweetwater,
There was a good article about this in today's Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...um=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

It discusses what it will really take to restore consumer confidence. It is based, in part, on a University of Michigan study that just came out:
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=65096
An important part of their results found health to be a much greater concern than finances:
"There will be no national consensus, nor a uniform restart of the economy. Consumers’ judgements will be based on science, experience, and emotion. Moreover, the fears generated by the coronavirus will not completely disappear anytime soon. Residual fears of exposure to some virus may still limit people’s willingness to be in crowds at sport stadiums, theaters, airplanes, cruises, large shopping malls, or even shake hands at the workplace or social events. While most of these changes in behaviors will not be permanent, they will certainly persist over the next few years. Moreover, many spending preferences and shopping habits may have been permanently changed by consumers’ recent experiences. Although recessions are notorious for reshaping economies, this downturn will entail many more changes in the makeup of the business sector as well as the working, spending, and shopping habits of consumers."

Much restoration of the old economic situation is going to require individuals to be confident in their safety to reenter crowds. Some of what we saw in the past is unlikely to return. The real question is how the next standard of economic behavior will look. You can certainly expect a further increase in online shopping.

I think we all need to be careful about group think. We all need to look at our own situation and find as much of the real information out there that we can. Just because some university study or government agency says something doesn't mean that is the correct answer for us. There will be good or bad outcomes no matter how we move forward. Don't allow partisans to suggest that just because they can point to one bad situation that means the whole path forward was bad. Staying in our homes has huge consequences to the economy. Getting infected by the virus, especially if vulnerable, can have huge consequences for us personally. We need to honestly look at our own personal risk and the risk to a crashing economy. Not easy, for sure, but we NEED to think about that.

Someone wise once said: "the only thing to fear, is fear itself". We might all think about that for a minute before we decide what is really the best path forward.

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