Tesla Model S & X cancelled [⚠️ ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[Blue highway]

Taking your points in turn…

There is no market for humanoid robots because those don’t exist yet in a useful form. Once they do, there will absolutely be a market. Musk has always been forward thinking, making new markets.

FSD doesn’t need Tesla to keep making new Ss and Xs to work. Again, Tesla is not exiting car manufacturing altogether. It is simplifying its manufacturing lines.

Your critique about the “fair valuation” of Tesla is irrelevant, but applies more generally to most of the market.

Again, Tesla isn’t shifting to software only. It is building robots, 3s and Ys.

My crystal ball says transportation as a service is absolutely the future, like it or not, once autonomous driving takes off. It is inevitable. My grandkids (not yet born) are unlikely to own cars unless they choose to live rural or as a hobby.

Tesla's FSD doesn't need S and X's... but it does need something to run in.... Tesla deliveries are declining in the face of competition and general product life cycle decline, and no car company is going to license the FSD software.

In terms of transportation as a service, we will find out pretty quickly. Waymo is not setting the world on fire... and only goes to dense urban populations for economic reasons... Uber and Lyft, and before them taxi's have been around for a long time... and again.... not setting the world on fire.

so the battle of the crystal balls begins! I'm betting on "transportation as a service" being about the size of rideshare companies. Insignificant compared to the private car business... we will see...

The obstacle facing humanoid robot adoption is that people are plentiful and comparatively cheap globally. Robots already do a large portion (most?) of repetitive manufacturing tasks. That leaves services for the Optimus bots.

There is a vast difference between something working, and something working in an economic sense. We certainly live in interesting times.

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[TheSteelRider]

Look at how difficult it has been to get autonomous vehicle software working, and it only has to do ONE TASK (stay between these two lines). Admittedly is also has solve for edge conditions, but edge conditions still based off accomplishing only the single task (stay between these two lines). Additionally, this software operates in a piece of hardware (vehicle) that only operates in a 2-D environment (go forward/back; go left/right) and is inherently "stable" (turn car off, car stays in place even if power is removed).

Contrast that effort now, and consider the effort required in order to get autonomous software working for humanoid robots. Not only do they need to do many tasks, they need to LEARN how to do many tasks (e.g., need to be able to handle situations never before seen) in real time. Think again they also need to do these tasks while handling edge conditions, but not just edge conditions against a single task but edge conditions against each task. They now need to operate in a 3-D environment (go forward/back; go left/right; go up/down). They are inherently "unstable" (turn robot off or power is removed, it falls over) so they need to be designed to be stable or solve for stability.

These are just a few differences. But, I have what I think is a more profound personal opinion and that is, why do they need to be humanoid? There is no universal law that says they need to be. The argument is we live in a world created for humans, but why can't a robot have 4 legs or 4 arms or wheels or any other design and still conform to human infrastructure? I think the humanoid form, for now, is misguided.

I'm also thinking economically. I think about Tesla selling cars, and I think how many of them they sell per year, each costing tens of thousands of dollars. Now I think about robots each costing tens of thousands of dollars. People buy cars because they NEED them, and if we are honest nobody today really NEEDs a humanoid robot. Even though people NEED cars, Telsa after all these years of predictions is still not the largest automaker by volume. Not by a longshot (last I checked I think they were something like number 16).

So what really is the market for a Tesla robot that costs nearly the same as a car? Do we really think that soccer moms already deep in debt on their 72-month car notes going to also take out a $750 / month note on a humanoid robot? It's difficult for me to really think that will be the case. I'd love for anyone who disagrees to maybe show some math how a robot the cost of a car will somehow be any more profitable or marketable than their existing car market? Am I missing something?

 

[Snakebitten]

Aren't they simply halting the production of a couple of models that aren't profitable and selling in basically niche quantity?

Every manufacturer does the same at times.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Aren't they simply halting the production of a couple of models that aren't profitable and selling in basically niche quantity?

Every manufacturer does the same at times.

No, and sort of. They're halting production of cars that people who can spend decent money on a car will buy. But mostly they're halting production so they can repurpose the Fremont plant for robots and tech assembly line workers instead of tech auto assembly line workers.

 

[Snakebitten]

No, and sort of. They're halting production of cars that people who can spend decent money on a car will buy. But mostly they're halting production so they can repurpose the Fremont plant for robots and tech assembly line workers instead of tech auto assembly line workers.

So you don't think there are any sales numbers that would have Tesla continuing building X&S, thus meeting healthy demand, and thus require building additional facilities for manufacturing the robots?

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

So you don't think there are any sales numbers that would have Tesla continuing building X&S, thus meeting healthy demand, and thus require building additional facilities for manufacturing the robots?

Personally? No, I believe Musk is convinced there's a very large pot of Rhodium waiting for him at the end of the Robot Rainbow. They also gave a somewhat less than straightforward answer about the fate of the current workers. Please note, they did not say the workers were going to be laid off; they also didn't say they'd be rolled over into the "new factory." I no longer live in Fremont, so I don't closely follow such things other than with a tiny bit of idle curiosity.

 

[Snakebitten]

I'm not discounting Elons determination to build the robots. But I believe if the products being manufactured currently were selling in sufficient numbers, Tesla would be happy to keep taking the customer's money.

Same with the Lightning.
I don't know what the actual number would be, but there has to be a number that would tilt the tables and profits win the day.

 

[SonicBlue]

Not trying to be troll-y or controversial here… I genuinely don’t understand why anyone (who isn’t invested in Tesla) cares that Tesla is cutting two of its car lines. Or that it’s gonna build robots. I’m intrigued. Repurposing that plant to build Optimus is a massive investment, and not something I think Tesla would do if some very smart people didn’t think it was a good bet. Could it fail? Sure! But kinda seems like some of you are rooting for it to fail. I don’t get that.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

I'm not discounting Elons determination to build the robots. But I believe if the products being manufactured currently were selling in sufficient numbers, Tesla would be happy to keep taking the customer's money.

Same with the Lightning.
I don't know what the actual number would be, but there has to be a number that would tilt the tables and profits win the day.

Believe what you want. He wanted a factory that was available right now. He has one, he just needed to kill off two car lines, neither of which were his dismal selling passion project, the cyber truck. A truck he has to play book keeping and delivery games with to pump up its sales. if this was a financial decision he’d be killing the CT which sells to a niche market.

Musk has not been interested in making cars for a very long time now. And what he wants at Tesla is what he gets.

 

[Mach1E]

Not trying to be troll-y or controversial here… I genuinely don’t understand why anyone (who isn’t invested in Tesla) cares that Tesla is cutting two of its car lines. Or that it’s gonna build robots. I’m intrigued. Repurposing that plant to build Optimus is a massive investment, and not something I think Tesla would do if some very smart people didn’t think it was a good bet. Could it fail? Sure! But kinda seems like some of you are rooting for it to fail. I don’t get that.

Are they the same “smart people” who made the CyberYuck?

This just feels like another ego project.

It’s a dumb idea. And you can quote me in a few years too.

From the guy who brought you “I’m going to Mars,” comes the idea of the future as predicted in 1962: the home Robot.

 

[MachE1977]

Taking your points in turn…

There is no market for humanoid robots because those don’t exist yet in a useful form. Once they do, there will absolutely be a market. Musk has always been forward thinking, making new markets.

FSD doesn’t need Tesla to keep making new Ss and Xs to work. Again, Tesla is not exiting car manufacturing altogether. It is simplifying its manufacturing lines.

Your critique about the “fair valuation” of Tesla is irrelevant, but applies more generally to most of the market.

Again, Tesla isn’t shifting to software only. It is building robots, 3s and Ys.

My crystal ball says transportation as a service is absolutely the future, like it or not, once autonomous driving takes off. It is inevitable. My grandkids (not yet born) are unlikely to own cars unless they choose to live rural or as a hobby.

What “new markets” did Elon Mask make?

I’d love to hear this one.

Elon Mask is late to robotics, he just has a platform to make it seem like Tesla is the only one.

 

[SonicBlue]

What “new markets” did Elon Mask make?

I’d love to hear this one.

Elon Mask is late to robotics, he just has a platform to make it seem like Tesla is the only one.

Starlink made satellite internet what it is today. SpaceX did the same for commercial space travel. Tesla did the same for EVs. Just to name three.

 

[MachE1977]

Starlink made satellite internet what it is today. SpaceX did the same for commercial space travel. Tesla did the same for EVs. Just to name three.

Tesla was around before Musk.

Hughesnet was around before Starlink. Satellite Internet what it is today? Is this a joke?

I’ll give you SpaceX. One.

Now let’s talk about the Cybertruck the only vision he truly came up with himself

 

[SonicBlue]

Tesla was around before Musk.

Hughesnet was around before Starlink. Satellite Internet what it is today? Is this a joke?

I’ll give you SpaceX. One.

Now let’s talk about the Cybertruck the only vision he truly came up with himself

Come on man. Just come on. This is one of the dumbest talking points there is among the anti-Elon crowd, and it needs to stop. Stop pretending that Tesla was even a shadow of what it was to become after Musk took over.

And comparing Starlink to Hughesnet?? Again, ridiculous.

I didn’t say Musk invented EVs. Or satellite internet. Or founded Tesla. I said he made them what they are today. Great products overall.

I never drank the Tesla KoolAid - I don’t like their visual aesthetic for starters, but I’m not so anti-Musk as to make dumb statements. For all his eccentricities and, yes, occasional misses, I appreciate innovators and risk takers.

 

[SonicBlue]

Come on man, I'm no Musk lover, but Tesla was a Silicon Valley wet dream before Musk got involved. Tesla created the modern EV market, it's indisputable. Starlike absolutely blows away Hughes Net in performance. Space X can land a reusable rocket back on the launch pad. NASA... not so much.

I get it, you hate the guy for his brief delve into politics, but he was Mr. Save-the-planet with EV's and everyone loved him, I bet you too at the time.

LOL we were literally writing the same posts at the same time, right down to the “come on man” starter. I mean, that’s literally the reaction every time this dumb argument comes up… a palm to the face with a “come on, man.”

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