Tesla smashes Q2

Billyk24

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Tesla's lifeline is based upon sales and cash flow to keep the stock price inflated. Quality control issues? Never. Refreshing existing models? Can't as they don't have the funds and never made a yearly profit.
 

ChasingCoral

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Tesla's lifeline is based upon sales and cash flow to keep the stock price inflated. Quality control issues? Never. Refreshing existing models? Can't as they don't have the funds and never made a yearly profit.
Yes, for folks who bought Tesla cheap and made a huge profit, this is a good time to cash out. Their ability to grow has been greatly facilitated by being pretty much alone in the market. That will soon end. I'm not saying Tesla will crash and burn. However, once they've released the CyberTruck they'll have to compete for market share. Even their big electric commercial trucks will enter the market with competition.
 

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Yes, for folks who bought Tesla cheap and made a huge profit, this is a good time to cash out. Their ability to grow has been greatly facilitated by being pretty much alone in the market. That will soon end. I'm not saying Tesla will crash and burn. However, once they've released the CyberTruck they'll have to compete for market share. Even their big electric commercial trucks will enter the market with competition.
Hi ChasingCoral, I've agreed with you on most all your e-Mustang posts. But agree on this Tesla-negative post? Nope!

1. Elon has confounded critics for several years. Most who have "bet against him" have gone down in flames.
2. Wall Street is not stupid even though a few within it may be. I spent 26 years on Wall Street. Stocks are "priced" for the farthest out they can see, and The Street is virtually always correct in that regard. And if the fundamentals change The Street will pivot in a micro second.
 

Mach Daddy

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I don’t share a rosy view of Tesla’s future sales growth in the US or Europe. I think there is Tesla fatigue. However, their Shanghai factory means China sales can make up for reduced demand elsewhere.

But I can’t deny that if they are added to the S&P 500 after this past quarter then they will be on pretty solid footing. I would like to say I am cashing out of TSLA but I mostly invest in funds and those funds will have to buy TSLA if they’re added.

By all measures they should be added, and if they’re not, TSLA fans will cry “conspiracy!”. But maybe Musk should have held off on poking the bear by not tweeting that SEC stands for S*** Elon’s C***.
 
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GregM

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Hi ChasingCoral, I've agreed with you on most all your e-Mustang posts. But agree on this Tesla-negative post? Nope!

1. Elon has confounded critics for several years. Most who have "bet against him" have gone down in flames.
2. Wall Street is not stupid even though a few within it may be. I spent 26 years on Wall Street. Stocks are "priced" for the farthest out they can see, and The Street is virtually always correct in that regard. And if the fundamentals change The Street will pivot in a micro second.
I think people are hoping Tesla is bought, or becomes a battery/tech company...they are young and therefore don't yet need a refresh of their body styles...but if they want to stay a car company, I would think things need to evolve a lot...not saying Elon can't do that....but if other companies have good batteries, good tech and quality builds with models that people are attracted to, then not sure what sets Tesla apart - now granted that might be five years from now, but still. I think the writing is on the wall that Tesla will need to mature more deeply than they have shown recently. Will that translate into valuation fatigue, unknown. But one of the reasons Tesla's stock is hot, is because the expectation bar is set pretty low, so when Elon beats volume numbers, bam, stock jumps.

Still wish I bought it a long time ago....I don't think the stock will really tank - I think Elon will figure out how to squeeze all the value from it over the next five to ten years.
 

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I think people are hoping Tesla is bought, or becomes a battery/tech company...they are young and therefore don't yet need a refresh of their body styles...but if they want to stay a car company, I would think things need to evolve a lot...not saying Elon can't do that....but if other companies have good batteries, good tech and quality builds with models that people are attracted to, then not sure what sets Tesla apart - now granted that might be five years from now, but still. I think the writing is on the wall that Tesla will need to mature more deeply than they have shown recently. Will that translate into valuation fatigue, unknown. But one of the reasons Tesla's stock is hot, is because the expectation bar is set pretty low, so when Elon beats volume numbers, bam, stock jumps.

Still wish I bought it a long time ago....I don't think the stock will really tank - I think Elon will figure out how to squeeze all the value from it over the next five to ten years.
Hi GregM
Some of your points are "interesting", but not this one:
<I think the writing is on the wall that Tesla will need to mature more deeply than they have shown recently. >

If any car company is more "mature" and innovated than Tesla, I haven't heard of them! Still, I don't wish to argue the point.
 

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Hi GregM
Some of your points are "interesting", but not this one:
<I think the writing is on the wall that Tesla will need to mature more deeply than they have shown recently. >

If any car company is more "mature" and innovated than Tesla, I haven't heard of them! Still, I don't wish to argue the point.
I bet I could have worded it better - by mature, I mean - get better with quality, have more design options than the duck lips, etc...which really only comes with time...look at Kia and Hynduai as examples of relatively young car companies designing cars for a variety of tastes...(its not unlike a new shoe company coming out with a great marque shoe model and running with it for the first handful of years as they build interest, and new followers with different tastes that in turns forces the shoe company to expand their product lines and offerings...)

I still think interesting EVs a la Tesla need to be at the $20-30k range to really be mainstream.
 

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Right now Tesla has practically no direct competition for their higher volume models. The Mach E will be the first. So the question is how many early adopters will Telsa be able to have as customers once more options come out. What percent of general car buyers are early adopters? Their early adopters are willing to buy the vehicles even though they still have "beta" functions, though the drivetrain is pretty well solidified at this point.

I think they've done well to concentrate on the drive train to get a high range electric vehicle on the market. However, the way they approach the design of the UI is not so good. It seems like they have people who come from a consumer device perspective, and not automotive safety and long lifecycle product. Many of the design choices they've made don't make sense unless this is a tablet computer, which it is not. This is where the design is a turn off to me.
 

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You are missing the facts and not comparing apples to apples -

1. TESLA is 'alone' , running single in race. It will keep on winning until the second man comes in.

2. The sales figures reported by TESLA are 'worldwide'. As Tesla does not reported audited and country wise sames, most people compare Tesla numbers with other OEM's USA only sales number.

3. Tesla had 12% 'LESS' sales and 5% 'LESS' deliveries Y-o-Y when compared with 2019. It is just that they made more deliveries than expected. Also, the deliveries include pre-ordered model Y which were ordered before pandemic.

4. People are going crazy over hyped TESLA stocks. If you compare the P/E ratio, you will find that there is an investment of $20milllion for each model 3 sold which cost 40k and the profit margin is slim. So, think in this way - people are investing $100000 for each dollar tesla is making, which is crazy.
 

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Hi ChasingCoral, I've agreed with you on most all your e-Mustang posts. But agree on this Tesla-negative post? Nope!

1. Elon has confounded critics for several years. Most who have "bet against him" have gone down in flames.
2. Wall Street is not stupid even though a few within it may be. I spent 26 years on Wall Street. Stocks are "priced" for the farthest out they can see, and The Street is virtually always correct in that regard. And if the fundamentals change The Street will pivot in a micro second.
I made it very clear I'm not being Tesla-negative. Note that I said:
" I'm not saying Tesla will crash and burn. However, once they've released the CyberTruck they'll have to compete for market share."

I'm being realistic. Musk has been able to go from $5 to $1200 per share but I don't see them going to $12,000. Gains now will probably continue but be more modest. Here are two speculations from Wallet Investor and CNN Business.

Ford Mustang Mach-E Tesla smashes Q2 stock-tsla-stock-forecast

Ford Mustang Mach-E Tesla smashes Q2 file


Right now Tesla has practically no direct competition for their higher volume models. The Mach E will be the first. So the question is how many early adopters will Telsa be able to have as customers once more options come out. What percent of general car buyers are early adopters?
Tesla is still targeting high-end car buyers. They will soon have competition from Volvo, Jaguar, Lincoln, Cadillac, etc. Cybertruck may be first on the market (or not) but F-150e, Rivian, Hummer, Lourdestown and others will be there too.

If they decide to really target a more mainstream market at half their current vehicle costs, they'll have to go high volume low markup. I doubt they'll quintuple their value doing that.

I never said Tesla stock owners should sell fast. However, I think Tesla has a much better chance of a 50% fall in the next year than another 5X increase.

I realize I don't have your 26 years of working on Wall Street. However, don't Wall Street folks still believe in buy low, sell high? For folks who bought Tesla low, I'm just suggesting now is pretty high.
 

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You are missing the facts and not comparing apples to apples -

1. TESLA is 'alone' , running single in race. It will keep on winning until the second man comes in.

2. The sales figures reported by TESLA are 'worldwide'. As Tesla does not reported audited and country wise sames, most people compare Tesla numbers with other OEM's USA only sales number.

3. Tesla had 12% 'LESS' sales and 5% 'LESS' deliveries Y-o-Y when compared with 2019. It is just that they made more deliveries than expected. Also, the deliveries include pre-ordered model Y which were ordered before pandemic.

4. People are going crazy over hyped TESLA stocks. If you compare the P/E ratio, you will find that there is an investment of $20milllion for each model 3 sold which cost 40k and the profit margin is slim. So, think in this way - people are investing $100000 for each dollar tesla is making, which is crazy.
On point 3: While Tesla had a small drop in sales, they fared far better than other auto manufacturers in the quarter where everyone took large hits due to corona virus. Doesn't matter how many Model Ys were pre-ordered prior to pandemic. How many people lost jobs that could not go forward with their orders, or cancelled orders because of financial worries? (BTW I was a Day 1 Y pre-order who cancelled due to the issues the Y is seeing coming off the line).

Point 4: The average sale price of a Model 3 is just above $50k. When I find the official statement from Tesla financial reports I'll post it.

Yes the stock is crazy but I bet the true valuation is not that far off. Their tech and battery business are far ahead of the pack. Wait until Battery day...

Lastly, Elon was teasing a stock split this week. Will be interesting to see if that happens.
 
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mspford

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On point 3: While Tesla had a small drop in sales, they fared far better than other auto manufacturers in the quarter where everyone took large hits due to corona virus. Doesn't matter how many Model Ys were pre-ordered prior to pandemic. How many people lost jobs that could not go forward with their orders, or cancelled orders because of financial worries? (BTW I was a Day 1 Y pre-order who cancelled due to the issues the Y is seeing coming off the line).

Point 4: The average sale price of a Model 3 is just above $50k. When I find the official statement from Tesla financial reports I'll post it.

Yes the stock is crazy but I bet the true valuation is not that far off. Their tech and battery business are far ahead of the pack. Wait until Battery day...

Lastly, Elon was teasing a stock split this week. Will be interesting to see if that happens.
So to point 3, let me tell you this - since TESLA's report is just 'deliveries ' and not 'sales' I think you should wait until Q2 is out to make any conclusion. Also, dont forget that the 90k number is not USA, but 'world'. All OEM's report country sales separately but TESLA reports consolidated. So, I would wait for USA number to compare apples top apples as I'm a fact guy and does not believe iun hyper-marketing.

For point 4, the true valuation of TESLA stock is close to 600 dollars. Currently, it is going way high because of stock game. Think about bitcoin - it has ZERO value, but people are buying and selling just to make profits. The reality is that All OEMs have share value hovering between 0-100, but TESLA is 12 times high. It does not even have assets or profits, infact revenue to support that stock value. When a stock becomes that crazy, it is called as 'bubble' in economic terms

Other things to consider is that all OEMs sell cars to Hotels, fleets, rental car businesses, police and govt, which refrained from buying new inventory, impacting sales of OEMs. TESLA is free from this.

I would not speculate on shining numbers, but would love to compare apples to apples hidden in TESLA's report once it is out.
 
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So to point 3, let me tell you this - since TESLA's report is just 'deliveries ' and not 'sales' I think you should wait until Q2 is out to make any conclusion
Maybe I'm confused, but what does this mean? I was thinking deliveries and sales were the same thing for them. I understand for legacy auto with dealers it is different. Just curious
 

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Tesla CEO is also a snake oil salesmen. Many statements from him and the company are designed to pump the stock price and build excitement for the brand.
Sponsored

 
 




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