Uh Oh

[Ghost Ryder]

Source?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ns-ease-fewer-people-want-to-own/70469087007/

https://www.wri.org/insights/electric-vehicle-charging-station-access

From the article
Studies estimate that only 22% of U.S. vehicles have reliable access to a dedicated home charging space within reach of an outlet that is capable of charging a small EV overnight, so many EV drivers (homeowners or not) will need public charging.

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[RickMachE]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ns-ease-fewer-people-want-to-own/70469087007/

You said most people cannot charge at home. The article says that a survey of 3,104 buyers between Feb and July showed 1/3 had no place to charge at home. Survey average showed 27% couldn't charge at home. That's not anywhere near most.

If you go to the source, Autolist, the actual reasons listed for not buying an EV were the words "Charging Access at home". Further examination shows lack of place to charge at home (or inability to install a charger) are viewed as a hurdle most acutely particularly for lower-income shoppers.

Nowhere does it say "they cannot install a charger due to their electrical system not being able to handle it". Nowhere.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/2023-survey-electric-vehicles

I'd also point out that among more well to do consumers, the ignorance of the ability to get free / subsidized EV chargers from utility companies is huge (I use the term "huge" without backup...). On a FB page dedicated to SE Michigan, I posted that our utility gives a $500 rebate (and that you can get a 30% tax credit for the rest) and it was amazing how many people had no idea this existed.

I'd also point out that a large percentage of the population of people that bought EVSEs has no idea there is a 30% tax credit for it and any wiring. Plus, there is now a 30% tax credit to upgrade your electrical service...

 

[Ghost Ryder]

You said most people cannot charge at home. The article says that a survey of 3,104 buyers between Feb and July showed 1/3 had no place to charge at home. Survey average showed 27% couldn't charge at home. That's not anywhere near most.

If you go to the source, Autolist, the actual reasons listed for not buying an EV were the words "Charging Access at home". Further examination shows lack of place to charge at home (or inability to install a charger) are viewed as a hurdle most acutely particularly for lower-income shoppers.

Nowhere does it say "they cannot install a charger due to their electrical system not being able to handle it". Nowhere.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/2023-survey-electric-vehicles

Ok, instead of most, a significant, 33% List that as one of the barriers. But it also states that lack of charging infrastructure accounts for 80% of the reason why people don't buy. My point is that the infrastructure must improve.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/ev-charging-industry-improvements.html

There are a lot of older homes out there where the electrical panel will need to be upgraded to use Lvl 2 charging. And that's cost prohibitive for a lot of people.

 

[Old_Norm]

That is pricing. Over estimating demand.

2023 EV sales were expected to have finished over 1 million units, a record year. Selling more than in the past would not be defined as "declining interest", would it?

Let's see if I have some facts to back up my declining theory. If you have any info to show interest in EVs is increasing please post it.

"U.S. consumers' interest in electric vehicles has lost some charge over the past year, according to fresh data that spells out the top reservations Americans have about giving up their gas-powered autos.

Car insurance app company Jerry's 2024 State of the American Driver report released this week found that 41% of respondents said they were interested in buying or leasing an EV as their next vehicle, down from 49% from a year earlier."

"The steepest decline was among the youngest drivers, Gen Z, whose interest plummeted from 61% to 41%. Baby boomers' interest in buying an EV was the lowest at 31%."

 

[heisnuts]

Like others have pointed out, I think we are through the early adopters for EVs so that leaves us with the general public. These people are not going to change from their ICE car just to switch to an EV. A quick search results in the average consumer keeping their cars about 8 years. If true, that would mean the general public will be looking for their next car over the next 8 years.

Once the average consumer wants to replace their vehicle, I think cost and convenience will be the biggest factor for most. If it is still cheaper to buy a comparable ICE vehicle and not worry about the charging concerns, I think a lot will still go that route.

 

[TheSteelRider]

Exactly 80% of current owners. But how many prospective owners can charge at home? My point is that a lot of people that have not bought EVs, can not charge at home.

Well, how many prospective buyers have electricity in their home? Sounds like you are saying, nobody has any outlets in their home these days?

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Well, how many prospective buyers have electricity in their home? Sounds like you are saying, nobody has any outlets in their home these days?

there's about a 65% home ownership in the US. The rest rent or can not modify their homes easily. I don't consider Lvl 1 charging adequate. So I'm not including access to LVL 1 charging.

So far, the vast majority of EV buyers are on the wealthier side of the income spectrum so a lot of those that bought EVs owned their homes. But at some point you have to look at the people that don't own homes.

When the avg household income is <70k a year, I don't see these people owning their own homes buying new 40-50k EVs.

 

[heisnuts]

Well, how many prospective buyers have electricity in their home? Sounds like you are saying, nobody has any outlets in their home these days?

I think he is saying a lot of people do not have a 220Volt 50 amp dedicated power source available before purchase. With a normal 110V home outlet, you are only adding 3 to 4 miles per hour to your battery, and for a lot of people that will be too slow. You also have a lot of people who do not have a garage or driveway they can pull into to plug in their car so they are only left with public charging, which can be challenging at best.

 

[RickMachE]

It's a good thing that forum members don't work in the Market Research field...

 

[Ghost Ryder]

It's a good thing that forum members don't work in the Market Research field...

Because if they did, there may have been a better prediction of EV demand, and less over productions of EVs in the past year.

There are over 13k new MME that are advertised on Cars.com currently. I'm going to guess that not all dealers list there cars there, the total number of MME on dealer lots are likely higher

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

8k Lightnings too. If that's your thing.

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

 

[Mach1E]

I think he is saying a lot of people do not have a 220Volt 50 amp dedicated power source available before purchase. With a normal 110V home outlet, you are only adding 3 to 4 miles per hour to your battery, and for a lot of people that will be too slow. You also have a lot of people who do not have a garage or driveway they can pull into to plug in their car so they are only left with public charging, which can be challenging at best.

I didn’t have a 220v 50a in my garage before purchase.

Then, like most of us here, I had it installed. $550 was my cost. Seemed pretty minor on a $70,000 car purchase and hardly a barrier to entry.

But not having a garage, or a house for that matter, is a HUGE barrier.

Not just for convenience of charging, but for cost! Public charging is expensive, and to state the obvious, homeowners typically make more money than renters. So that expense will matter even more to the renters.

 

[RickMachE]

Because if they did, there may have been a better prediction of EV demand, and less over productions of EVs in the past year.

There are over 13k new MME that are advertised on Cars.com currently. I'm going to guess that not all dealers list there cars there, the total number of MME on dealer lots are likely higher

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

8k Lightnings too. If that's your thing.

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

And a Market Researcher would explain to you that cars sitting on lots shows that supply exceeds demand currently. What that doesn't tell you is whether supply (i.e. manufacturing) was up (it was), and whether demand has actually dropped, or it's just supply exceeding demand.

Yes, we know that EV sales are slowing. I showed you stats that show that demand growth has slowed. Growth. 2024 is forecasted to sell more EVs than 2023, but less growth than in 2023, which was less growth than 2022.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

And a Market Researcher would explain to you that cars sitting on lots shows that supply exceeds demand currently. What that doesn't tell you is whether supply (i.e. manufacturing) was up (it was), and whether demand has actually dropped, or it's just supply exceeding demand.

Yes, we know that EV sales are slowing. I showed you stats that show that demand growth has slowed. Growth. 2024 is forecasted to sell more EVs than 2023, but less growth than in 2023, which was less growth than 2022.

I'm not debating that people are buying more EVs, that's a fact. But the growth has soften significantly, more than what the market research predicted.

Supply is obviously up, so much so that EVs are getting delayed or canceled.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

I didn’t have a 220v 50a in my garage before purchase.

Then, like most of us here, I had it installed. $550 was my cost. Seemed pretty minor on a $70,000 car purchase and hardly a barrier to entry.

But not having a garage, or a house for that matter, is a HUGE barrier.

Not just for convenience of charging, but for cost! Public charging is expensive, and to state the obvious, homeowners typically make more money than renters. So that expense will matter even more to the renters.

Cost of installation is highly dependent on where your Breaker box is located and whether it needs an upgrade or not. A lot of older homes only have a 100amp panel or far away from the garage. $550 is the best case scenario. And I take it that's for labor. So you're looking at about 1k minimum. could be 3-5k if you need a new panel or longer run. For a 70k car that's reasonable, for a 30k car, that becomes a little harder. As the person that buys the 30k car is probably already stretching their budget.

 

[RickMachE]

Clearly if someone makes less income, and buys a less expensive vehicle to drive, their ability to install 240v charging at home may be less than someone who makes more money. And a tax credit that is non-refundable only matters to those who have sufficient tax liability.

People who cannot afford to install home charging may need to properly evaluate if they can afford a new vehicle, and if that vehicle should be an EV. I'm sure many make that emotional purchase "all the money I can make with a Chevy Bolt driving Uber or Uber Eats" without doing the analysis.

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