Uh Oh

[TheSteelRider]

Because if they did, there may have been a better prediction of EV demand, and less over productions of EVs in the past year.

There are over 13k new MME that are advertised on Cars.com currently. I'm going to guess that not all dealers list there cars there, the total number of MME on dealer lots are likely higher

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

8k Lightnings too. If that's your thing.

https://www.cars.com/shopping/resul...&stock_type=new&year_max=&year_min=&zip=91730

And there are 11,540 Bronco, 17,860 Bronco Sport, 17,495 Edge, 19,894 Escape, 23,054 Explorer, and no less than 58,230 F-150s. I don't understand the point?

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[RickMachE]

My former dealer has 729 vehicles showing in his inventory. He also have 28 in transit and 95 on on order.

Courtesy of the Wayback Machine, on May 2, 2018, it had 1,732 vehicles (no breakdown)...

Bill Brown Ford, currently the largest Ford dealer in the country, has 607 in stock, 10 in transit, and 102 on order. On Jan 17, 2018, they had 1,529...

Gotta love numbers!

 

[Ghost Ryder]

And there are 11,540 Bronco, 17,860 Bronco Sport, 17,495 Edge, 19,894 Escape, 23,054 Explorer, and no less than 58,230 F-150s. I don't understand the point?

Ford sold 20k Lightning in 2023. But has at least 8k still on dealer lots.

Ford sold over 700k F150 in 2023, and only has 58k on lots.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-best-selling-truck-for-47-years-and-cou.html

So the percentage of unsold EVs vs. ICE is much greater. That's the point.
Ford over estimated the demand for EVs compared to ICE.

 

[RickMachE]

Ford sold 20k Lightning in 2023. But has at least 8k still on dealer lots.

Ford sold over 700k F150 in 2023, and only has 58k on lots.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-best-selling-truck-for-47-years-and-cou.html

So the percentage of unsold EVs vs. ICE is much greater. That's the point.
Ford over estimated the demand for EVs compared to ICE.

Yes, they did. That's why they cut production. This year, they project to sell 60,000 to 72,000 Lightnings. If they only sold 40,000, that would be an increase of 100% (I'm assuming your 20,000 number is correct).

 

[TheSteelRider]

Ford sold 20k Lightning in 2023. But has at least 8k still on dealer lots.

Ford sold over 700k F150 in 2023, and only has 58k on lots.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-best-selling-truck-for-47-years-and-cou.html

So the percentage of unsold EVs vs. ICE is much greater. That's the point.
Ford over estimated the demand for EVs compared to ICE.

How many lots does this represent?

IFF there are 2,000 EV-certified dealers, this is an average just 4 EVs per lot, vs a total dealership network of 3,000 which would be an average of 19 ICE per lot. 4 EVs per lot doesn't seem like some extreme over-supply issue?

(Although we need to acknowledge stock isn't distributed evenly like this, but I'm just making a point to show percentage numbers vs. absolute numbers)

 

[Old_Norm]

Yes, we know that EV sales are slowing. I showed you stats that show that demand growth has slowed. Growth. 2024 is forecasted to sell more EVs than 2023, but less growth than in 2023, which was less growth than 2022.

Then why do you claim interest in EVs is not waning? You said, " There is no "declining interest in EVs." When fewer people are interested in EVs (see post #19) sales will fall. I believe the sale forecasts you cite were earlier in the year. Here are some from December that pretty much refute your claim that interest in EV is not declining.

"...the sales pace slowed to 50% year-over-year by June 2023, and last month, it dropped to 35% year-over-year.

Some automakers are reevaluating their costly EV strategies as the year comes to a close.

Ford has sold just under 36,000 Mach Es through November, only a 3.5% increase over the same period last year. The company’s inventory of Mach Es has been growing much of the year. It had more than 24,000 at or en route to dealers at the end of last month, even though it has been cutting production for the past two months. Yet, Lightning pickup sales of 20,365 are up almost 54%. “We have to manage supply with demand,” said Erich Merkle, Ford’s head of U.S. sales analysis. “We would do that with any product in our portfolio.”


Ford recently announced plans to delay one new EV battery plant, shrink the size of another, and postpone $12 billion worth of future electric vehicle spending. GM also delayed retooling an EV plant, and Volkswagen has delayed plans in Europe."

Fortune

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Yes, they did. That's why they cut production. This year, they project to sell 60,000 to 72,000 Lightnings. If they only sold 40,000, that would be an increase of 100% (I'm assuming your 20,000 number is correct).

lightnings only began selling in June/July 2022.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/11/23997632/ford-f150-lightning-production-reduce-ev-demand

according to this article, ford sold 13k lightning in 2022, and 20k in 2023. But since that number in 2022 only represents 1/2 a year of production, the growth trend is not very encouraging.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

How many lots does this represent?

IFF there are 2,000 EV-certified dealers, this is an average just 4 EVs per lot, vs a total dealership network of 3,000 which would be an average of 19 ICE per lot. 4 EVs per lot doesn't seem like some extreme over-supply issue?

(Although we need to acknowledge stock isn't distributed evenly like this, but I'm just making a point to show percentage numbers vs. absolute numbers)

in Oct 2023 (the lasted info I could find) there was a 210+ days supply of MME. A healthy market is around 60 days.
https://caredge.com/guides/ford-inventory-surplus-2023

 

[TheSteelRider]

in Oct 2023 (the lasted info I could find) there was a 210+ days supply of MME. A healthy market is around 60 days.
https://caredge.com/guides/ford-inventory-surplus-2023

Ok, but your example was Lightning vs. F-150.

Ford sold 20k Lightning in 2023. But has at least 8k still on dealer lots.

Ford sold over 700k F150 in 2023, and only has 58k on lots.

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-best-selling-truck-for-47-years-and-cou.html

So the percentage of unsold EVs vs. ICE is much greater. That's the point.
Ford over estimated the demand for EVs compared to ICE.

I was responding only to the F-150 numbers that you cited.

How many lots does this represent?

IFF there are 2,000 EV-certified dealers, this is an average just 4 EVs per lot, vs a total dealership network of 3,000 which would be an average of 19 ICE per lot. 4 EVs per lot doesn't seem like some extreme over-supply issue?

(Although we need to acknowledge stock isn't distributed evenly like this, but I'm just making a point to show percentage numbers vs. absolute numbers)

Your argument appears to be that the percentage of unsold Lightning's vs. the percentage of unsold F-150s shows that demand for that particular model of EV has been over-estimated. I am making the point that, in a dealer network, there is likely a "minimum" number of vehicles that need to be unsold and sitting on dealer lots in order to generate sales (this is the classic model of dealership sales -- a person shows up to the lot, and buys whatever is on the lot.). Therefore, for a lower-production vehicle, the percentage of unsold vehicles sitting on dealer lots will necessarily need to be higher than a higher-production vehicle. Therefore, comparing percentages is not as useful in this situation.

So, I was responding only in Lightening vs. F-150 numbers. Do you have any thoughts on your initial F-150 comment vs. my response that does not involve any other vehicle besides the Lightning or F-150?

 

[RickMachE]

Then why do you claim interest in EVs is not waning? You said, " There is no "declining interest in EVs." When fewer people are interested in EVs (see post #19) sales will fall. I believe the sale forecasts you cite were earlier in the year. Here are some from December that pretty much refute your claim that interest in EV is not declining.

"...the sales pace slowed to 50% year-over-year by June 2023, and last month, it dropped to 35% year-over-year.

Some automakers are reevaluating their costly EV strategies as the year comes to a close.

Ford has sold just under 36,000 Mach Es through November, only a 3.5% increase over the same period last year. The company’s inventory of Mach Es has been growing much of the year. It had more than 24,000 at or en route to dealers at the end of last month, even though it has been cutting production for the past two months. Yet, Lightning pickup sales of 20,365 are up almost 54%. “We have to manage supply with demand,” said Erich Merkle, Ford’s head of U.S. sales analysis. “We would do that with any product in our portfolio.”


Ford recently announced plans to delay one new EV battery plant, shrink the size of another, and postpone $12 billion worth of future electric vehicle spending. GM also delayed retooling an EV plant, and Volkswagen has delayed plans in Europe."

Fortune

EV sales are increasing year over year. 35% year over year is increased sales, is it not. It's just increasing at a lower rate than it did the prior year.

Surveys are an inexact science. How the question is asked matters, and intent is very hard to predict turning into action. Years ago I worked at a company that sold women's clothing by catalog. We sold hundreds of millions per year. We wanted to better predict winners and losers. We hired a firm that crafted a methodology where people got an advanced copy of the catalog and placed orders, trying to guess at the projected demand for the winners and losers. We spent six figures on this effort, it was that important. After a year, we came to the conclusion that the effort gave us zero learning, that the actions of a few weren't predictive over the whole. We also did premailings and gave people "fake money" to have them provide direction. That didn't work either.

"Are you less likely to buy an EV this year versus a year ago?" - Answer, yes?

"Is that because gas prices are down?" "Is that due to the economy"? "Is that due to interest rates"? "Is that due to your personal situation?" "Is that due to ____"?

Headline - Potential EV Buyers Less Likely to Buy an EV in 2024. Click, click, click...

Automakers forecasted a higher increase in year over year sales, and it's not happening that way, so they are cutting their increases in capacity. The Lightning's production capacity was doubled last year, and they ramped up weekly production. They are now not going to use that increased capacity, lowering their weekly number from 3,200 to 1,600.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Ok, but your example was Lightning vs. F-150.


I was responding only to the F-150 numbers that you cited.


So, I was responding only in Lightening vs. F-150 numbers. Do you have any thoughts on your initial F-150 comment vs. my response that does not involve any other vehicle besides the Lightning or F-150?

It's hard to compare the other vehicles because they don't have an EV equivalent. There's a glut of cars on dealerships lot now. OEMs has over produced all cars, ICE and EVs. The question is has it overproduced as a percentage, more EVs compare to ICE.

Based on this article:

https://caredge.com/guides/ford-inventory-surplus-2023

the MME has a 214 day supply compared to Broncos at 40-70 days.

 

[TheSteelRider]

It's hard to compare the other vehicles because they don't have an EV equivalent. There's a glut of cars on dealerships lot now. OEMs has over produced all cars, ICE and EVs. The question is has it overproduced as a percentage, more EVs compare to ICE.

What are your thoughts in this point?

Your argument appears to be that the percentage of unsold Lightning's vs. the percentage of unsold F-150s shows that demand for that particular model of EV has been over-estimated. I am making the point that, in a dealer network, there is likely a "minimum" number of vehicles that need to be unsold and sitting on dealer lots in order to generate sales (this is the classic model of dealership sales -- a person shows up to the lot, and buys whatever is on the lot.). Therefore, for a lower-production vehicle, the percentage of unsold vehicles sitting on dealer lots will necessarily need to be higher than a higher-production vehicle. Therefore, comparing percentages is not as useful in this situation.

 

[TheSteelRider]

It's hard to compare the other vehicles because they don't have an EV equivalent. There's a glut of cars on dealerships lot now. OEMs has over produced all cars, ICE and EVs. The question is has it overproduced as a percentage, more EVs compare to ICE.

Based on this article:

https://caredge.com/guides/ford-inventory-surplus-2023

the MME has a 214 day supply compared to Broncos at 40-70 days.

Based off the same article the MME has a 214 day supply compared to the Lincoln Aviator at 403 days supply. So, here is my question, does that mean then that the demand for the Lincoln Aviator has fallen? Or does it mean that, since I found one model of ICE vehicle that demand has fallen, that just MUST mean demand for all ICE has fallen?

I believe you are trying to make the point that demand for EVs has fallen. That is a true point, but demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen, from that same article:

In the automotive world, a balanced market dances around the 60-day inventory supply benchmark ... Currently, Ford boasts a 96-day supply, translating to a whopping 318,339 cars available across American Ford dealerships.

So you picked two models to show that the EV model is much worse, but then I picked the exact opposite showing an ICE model that is much worse than an EV model. The reality is, we can play this game all day if you want.

The issue is, again, the demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen. You can't pick two vehicles in two different market segments and come to ANY conclusion. Look at the market, as a whole, and even then you can likely only come to some really vague maybe-accurate-maybe-not kindof almost conclusions.

 

[RickMachE]

lightnings only began selling in June/July 2022.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/11/23997632/ford-f150-lightning-production-reduce-ev-demand

according to this article, ford sold 13k lightning in 2022, and 20k in 2023. But since that number in 2022 only represents 1/2 a year of production, the growth trend is not very encouraging.

Looking at numbers without understanding the details can provide incomplete pictures.

Lightning production was shutdown in early 2023 due to a fire on a holding lot. That was roughly 5 weeks (I don't have exact numbers). It was shutdown in the summer to double production for 6 weeks. Not an expert on the production, but let's do the math.

13,000 in 13 weeks = 26,000 per year for 2022.

20,000 in 41 weeks comes out real close to the same annual run rate. But it's higher, because they were ramping up and then cut back.

Again, no one is saying that demand is growing at the same rate they expected, it is not. But in 2024 they will sell more than in 2023 I believe. I also think the 20,000 number is not accurate, that was as of end of November.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Based off the same article the MME has a 214 day supply compared to the Lincoln Aviator at 403 days supply. So, here is my question, does that mean then that the demand for the Lincoln Aviator has fallen? Or does it mean that, since I found one model of ICE vehicle that demand has fallen, that just MUST mean demand for all ICE has fallen?

I believe you are trying to make the point that demand for EVs has fallen. That is a true point, but demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen, from that same article:



So you picked two models to show that the EV model is much worse, but then I picked the exact opposite showing an ICE model that is much worse than an EV model. The reality is, we can play this game all day if you want.

The issue is, again, the demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen. You can't pick two vehicles in two different market segments and come to ANY conclusion. Look at the market, as a whole, and even then you can likely only come to some really vague maybe-accurate-maybe-not kindof almost conclusions.

No question that demands for all vehicles have fallen, but the question that we're debating in this thread is: "is there a bigger gap in demand for EV vs prediction as compared to ICE." No one is debating that we're moving away from ICE.

I want more EVs. I'm an ideal EV owner. I can charge at home, have solar, and travel less than 100 miles a day. I can also afford to rent an ICE car for long trips if I don't feel like using DCFC. But I'm well aware that not everyone is in my situation. And the hard push to EV may be too ambitious and can seriously hurt a lot of people.

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