VW to divest EA stake

[timbop]

I hope not. The more independent they are to avoid temptation to show favoritism (or be propriatary) to any automaker over others is not a good thing, IMO. That's one of my concerns with VW. They could start being tempted to favor their own EVs over others with pricing, throttling, etc.

The less conflict of interest the better when all CCS manufacturers/drivers are so dependent on them.

That's what I said. It's already a concern with VW. Be better to see EA be distanced from any specific automakers, not get deeper in bed with them.

That's a fair point about conflict of interest, but if several of auto OEMs own it they will be less likely to do that, and we will all be better off because it is in their self-interest for EA to succeed. As @Kamuelaflyer has pointed out Shell is using it as a PR stunt and is not really interested in their charging business thriving; by ensuring the chargers are lower power and poorly maintained they can keep the barrier to BEV adoption in place while looking like they're the good guys.

Other than an oil company or car manufacturer, I'm not sure who would be interested in buying in that has the cash and nationwide presence. Charging isn't going to be profitable for some time yet, so it has to be someone willing to play the long game. A company like Walmart could (especially since they host so many EA chargers already), but I don't see them doing it.

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[dbsb3233]

That's a fair point about conflict of interest, but if several of auto OEMs own it they will be less likely to do that, and we will all be better off because it is in their self-interest for EA to succeed. As @Kamuelaflyer has pointed out Shell is using it as a PR stunt and is not really interested in their charging business thriving; by ensuring the chargers are lower power and poorly maintained they can keep the barrier to BEV adoption in place while looking like they're the good guys.

Other than an oil company or car manufacturer, I'm not sure who would be interested in buying in that has the cash and nationwide presence. Charging isn't going to be profitable for some time yet, so it has to be someone willing to play the long game. A company like Walmart could (especially since they host so many EA chargers already), but I don't see them doing it.

Yeah, that's probably the biggest problem -- charging volume is so low right now that they have to be huge money-losers. And even as they get busier with more CCS EVs on the roads this decade, current rates still don't sound like they'll make them profitable (in their own right).

That means it's gonna be hard to find outside buyers that don't have an ulterior motive for losing money on it. That would primarily be the automakers that sell BEVs. Although that does depend on how much taxpayer subsidy (or VW punishment) money keeps getting poured in from the side. As long as that money keeps flowing in, it might be possible for the financials to work out that an investor/owner actually comes out ahead. Subsidy money paying the bills while owners get the profits.

Ideally it would be more like the gas model (independent of automakers with a single, interchangeable standard). But that may not be possible (at least yet) because it's such a poor investment (without huge external subsidy, anyway).

 

[Jimmy2]

Yeah, that's probably the biggest problem -- charging volume is so low right now that they have to be huge money-losers. And even as they get busier with more CCS EVs on the roads this decade, current rates still don't sound like they'll make them profitable (in their own right).

The public charging station business is not profitable now and will probably never be profitable. One simple reason: Most EV owners will continue to charge at home regardless of the number of available public charging stations.

Put another way, if you are an ICE owner you are not very likely to put a gas pump in your garage and underground tank to support it; rather, you are forced to use the gas station. The demand for public charging stations, on the other hand, will never be there because you can just pull up into your garage and plug in.

 

[dbsb3233]

The public charging station business is not profitable now and will probably never be profitable. One simple reason: Most EV owners will continue to charge at home regardless of the number of available public charging stations.

Put another way, if you are an ICE owner you are not very likely to put a gas pump in your garage and underground tank to support it; rather, you are forced to use the gas station. The demand for public charging stations, on the other hand, will never be there because you can just pull up into your garage and plug in.

Exactly. With 90%+ of BEV refueling at home, there's just not a huge volume left for retail charging.

Another problem is weak throughput. While an ICE vehicle ties up a gas pump for 3-4 minutes, a BEV ties up a charger for 15-45 minutes. Each gas pump can handle 5-10 times more customers per day than a charger.

Chargers do have a lower cost of operation than a gas pump though. That helps offset some of that. But the volume gap is just so huge. Maybe there will be a day when the volume is high enough and the charging times short enough to generate enough sales to break even, but that's probably far off. And possibly never without permanent subsidy.

 

[timbop]

The demand for public charging stations, on the other hand, will never be there because you can just pull up into your garage and plug in.

The demand for public charging stations will never be the same as for gas stations, but I disagree that there is no demand. Many living in cities, apartments, etc will always need public charging, and long distance travel in any EV certainly requires fast public charging. The problem for those "rest stop" chargers that are on major travel routes is that they have short periods of high demand mixed with longer periods of very low usage. They are also harmed by utility companies that have excessive fees for exactly that usage pattern. Batteries can help mitigate those demand fees, but that adds a whole new expense of its own.

 

[BMT1071]

Exactly. With 90%+ of BEV refueling at home, there's just not a huge volume left for retail charging.

Another problem is weak throughput. While an ICE vehicle ties up a gas pump for 3-4 minutes, a BEV ties up a charger for 15-45 minutes. Each gas pump can handle 5-10 times more customers per day than a charger.

Chargers do have a lower cost of operation than a gas pump though. That helps offset some of that. But the volume gap is just so huge. Maybe there will be a day when the volume is high enough and the charging times short enough to generate enough sales to break even, but that's probably far off. And possibly never without permanent subsidy.

Station owners reportedly make next to nothing on the sale of the gas. It's the convenience store that brings in the money. Restaurants and larger stores, e.g. Cracker Barrel and Wal-Mart, are prime locations for DCFC.

 

[EELinneman]

Exactly. With 90%+ of BEV refueling at home, there's just not a huge volume left for retail charging.

Another problem is weak throughput. While an ICE vehicle ties up a gas pump for 3-4 minutes, a BEV ties up a charger for 15-45 minutes. Each gas pump can handle 5-10 times more customers per day than a charger.

Chargers do have a lower cost of operation than a gas pump though. That helps offset some of that. But the volume gap is just so huge. Maybe there will be a day when the volume is high enough and the charging times short enough to generate enough sales to break even, but that's probably far off. And possibly never without a permanent subsidy.

Retail gas stations are a low profit, high volume business. There was a Shell station in Mt. Prospect, IL that was on land that my family owned since 1950 and about 5 years ago Shell/Circle K terminated the lease. There are fewer and fewer gas stations due to increased mileage in cars and the urban population becoming denser and lower auto ownership.

EV charging will continue to expand as manufacturers move to that type of vehicle. While the majority of BEV cars charge at home, as the auto market shifts the demand for charging will grow and grow in areas outside of high population. The initial investment is high, but nothing like building a gas station with tanks, extensive safety equipment and ongoing risk. We will still need to solve the trucking issue and that may lead to replaceable battery units. In OTR trucking time = money and distance directly ties to cost and revenue. While we currently can deal with 45 to 60 minute charging for 300 miles, that doesn't work in OTR.

There will be lots of suitors to pony up $1B. Capital is seeking returns and that means a 3 to 5 year view. That part is rosy. Plus, the investment community always thinks they can do it better than the people who started the company. I hope Ford, or GM, or Mercedes, etc doesn't get involved, but it's likely that they will form some consortium to do this and compete with Tesla. Revenue at the sale and ongoing revenue through the lifecycle of the vehicle.

 

[dbsb3233]

Station owners reportedly make next to nothing on the sale of the gas. It's the convenience store that brings in the money. Restaurants and larger stores, e.g. Cracker Barrel and Wal-Mart, are prime locations for DCFC.

Yep, margins on gasoline sales are notoriously low. Due in large part from having such high visibility pricing (literally) and so much easy competition for consumers. Forces prices down to the bare minimum (basically, at cost plus a couple pennies).

But, it's high volume, and high foot traffic. Making it great for ancillary business like convenience store and grocery store.

That doesn't translate well to DCFC though. Due to the reasons mentioned above, foot traffic generated by DCFC is probably 1/100th that of gas. Even when there's way more BEVs on the road. It's likely a very minor boost for businesses that host the locations (unlike gas).

 

[BMT1071]

Yep, margins on gasoline sales are notoriously low. Due in large part from having such high visibility pricing (literally) and so much easy competition for consumers. Forces prices down to the bare minimum (basically, at cost plus a couple pennies).

But, it's high volume, and high foot traffic. Making it great for ancillary business like convenience store and grocery store.

That doesn't translate well to DCFC though. Due to the reasons mentioned above, foot traffic generated by DCFC is probably 1/100th that of gas. Even when there's way more BEVs on the road. It's likely a very minor boost for businesses that host the locations (unlike gas).

Your theory doesn't go along with many of the posts I've seen regarding DCFC locations. People frequently complain about having nothing to do while their vehicle charges. My point was that a convenience store is not a place you can easily spend 30+ minutes, but a restaurant or larger store would be.

 

[trutolife27]

Well, for the BEV movement to move forward you need faster charging time at fast chargers or longer range.

The longer the range of a BEV the more people will only need to charge at home. If one day the tech is good enough to have 800 miles to 1,000 miles range BEV at a fair price. Won't need all the stations.

With people shopping from home, more than brick and mortar stores. it's becoming more and more at home. Work from home. Shop at home, and only charge at home. Future is showing its hands each day.

The funny thing is I saw where they said in the next 50 years barber shop, nail salon all simple things will be done at home while they come to you. Already can see a doctor from your phone.

Your home is your castle and soon to a world with less interaction.

 

[dbsb3233]

Your theory doesn't go along with many of the posts I've seen regarding DCFC locations. People frequently complain about having nothing to do while their vehicle charges. My point was that a convenience store is not a place you can easily spend 30+ minutes, but a restaurant or larger store would be.

Oh I wholly agree that restaurants and larger stores (like Walmarts) are usually the best places to put them. I've said the same thing. From the BEV owners' standpoint, that's a big plus to have bathrooms and restaurants on-site.

What I meant was that from the hosting businesses' standpoint, there's very little gain to them being a charger-hosting site vs being a gas-hosting site. It's a tiny fraction of the foot traffic. And that matters because businesses won't be rushing out to offer a spot in their parking lots to host chargers. Many people suggest it's a big plus for them to do so (citing gas stations), but it's really not a big plus. Just a small one because it's a tiny fraction of the daily foot traffic.

 

[BMT1071]

Oh I wholly agree that restaurants and larger stores (like Walmarts) are usually the best places to put them. I've said the same thing. From the BEV owners' standpoint, that's a big plus to have bathrooms and restaurants on-site.

What I meant was that from the hosting businesses' standpoint, there's very little gain to them being a charger-hosting site vs being a gas-hosting site. It's a tiny fraction of the foot traffic. And that matters because businesses won't be rushing out to offer a spot in their parking lots to host chargers. Many people suggest it's a big plus for them to do so (citing gas stations), but it's really not a big plus. Just a small one because it's a tiny fraction of the daily foot traffic.

Yes, but a plus that will get bigger as the BEV population increases.

 

[dbsb3233]

Well, for the BEV movement to move forward you need faster charging time at fast chargers or longer range.

The longer the range of a BEV the more people will only need to charge at home. If one day the tech is good enough to have 800 miles to 1,000 miles range BEV at a fair price. Won't need all the stations.

With people shopping from home, more than brick and mortar stores. it's becoming more and more at home. Work from home. Shop at home, and only charge at home. Future is showing its hands each day.

The funny thing is I saw where they said in the next 50 years barber shop, nail salon all simple things will be done at home while they come to you. Already can see a doctor from your phone.

Your home is your castle and soon to a world with less interaction.

That would be the ideal. But I doubt that will ever become the norm (800-1000 mile range). Batteries would have to get super cheap and super light for that to happen. So cheap and light that there's very little cost/weight penalty to putting in 300 kWh instead of stopping at 100 kWh.

But as long as they're fairly heavy and fairly expensive, there's too much reason to only put in 100 kWh (thus ~300 mile range), due to diminishing returns. While we can never say never with technology advancement, I'm not expecting prices and weight to come down that dramatically for a long time (if ever).

 

[trutolife27]

That would be the ideal. But I doubt that will ever become the norm (800-1000 mile range). Batteries would have to get super cheap and super light for that to happen. So cheap and light that there's very little cost/weight penalty to putting in 300 kWh instead of stopping at 100 kWh.

But as long as they're fairly heavy and fairly expensive, there's too much reason to only put in 100 kWh (thus ~300 mile range), due to diminishing returns. While we can never say never with technology advancement, I'm not expecting prices and weight to come down that dramatically for a long time (if ever).

yep, it won't be right now. might not be an BEV but it's coming. Lucid has a 500-mile range and yes we all know the cost. but I'm sure by 2030 there will be a bev with 500 miles range of around 40,000. I would bet within the next 100 years it will be almost all done at home. If it was hydrogen you could have someone go house to house and fill your tank up so you can fill your car. The push is changing to do everything at home.

Krogers is now doing free grocery delivery to the house now. A nation of hermits here we come lol.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Oh I wholly agree that restaurants and larger stores (like Walmarts) are usually the best places to put them. I've said the same thing. From the BEV owners' standpoint, that's a big plus to have bathrooms and restaurants on-site.

What I meant was that from the hosting businesses' standpoint, there's very little gain to them being a charger-hosting site vs being a gas-hosting site. It's a tiny fraction of the foot traffic. And that matters because businesses won't be rushing out to offer a spot in their parking lots to host chargers. Many people suggest it's a big plus for them to do so (citing gas stations), but it's really not a big plus. Just a small one because it's a tiny fraction of the daily foot traffic.

Our local Target put in exactly 2 charging points for the store parking lot (which is huge). While they're generally full, there are rarely any BEV's parked elsewhere in the lot. If you want to go to Target, you'll go but not because of the L2 charger (or DCFC as the case may be). If your retail establishment has ample parking and you're near an interstate, you might get slightly more traffic for your restrooms but I doubt it's going to be a huge draw.

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