Farley: Ford EVs shockingly behind Tesla & China, but Ford can't afford to "walk away from EVs."

[hellb0y]

Farley has nothing to worry about - all American cars will have their market share wiped within 5 years in China - the current administration is expediting that process…

if you don’t believe me, GM (all brands) for example sold 1.5M cars in China in 2020…and 520k in 2024…this year?! Their market share is likely to be 200k, if the trade war doesn’t subside things won’t be pretty.

you may argue that Chinese prefer EVs now, but Tesla has lost 35% market share and now has been reduce to a tiny footprint. In 2024, Tesla sales were going up and ended with 8.2% market share, this year will likely end with 3%…

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[Kamuelaflyer]

GM sold their soul to SAIC

They sold their soul to Scottish Aquaculture Innovation Centre? Well, that explains a lot!

 

[dbsb3233]

Farley has nothing to worry about - all American cars will have their market share wiped within 5 years in China - the current administration is expediting that process…

if you don’t believe me, GM (all brands) for example sold 1.5M cars in China in 2020…and 520k in 2024…this year?! Their market share is likely to be 200k, if the trade war doesn’t subside things won’t be pretty.

you may argue that Chinese prefer EVs now, but Tesla has lost 35% market share and now has been reduce to a tiny footprint. In 2024, Tesla sales were going up and ended with 8.2% market share, this year will likely end with 3%…

Not just Americans cars. China has been pushing out foreign competition from their domestic market for a few decades now. The growth of the Chinese auto industry this century is rather alarming. They're trying to monopolize their domestic market, with eyes on doing the same to other markets.

 

[hellb0y]

Not just Americans cars. China has been pushing out foreign competition from their domestic market for a few decades now. The growth of the Chinese auto industry this century is rather alarming. They're trying to monopolize their domestic market, with eyes on doing the same to other markets.

you are looking at old data here - for example, Toyota increased their Chinese market share…

it’s not a matter of nacionalizing, I don’t want to sound crazy but some of the Chinese cars are amazing - the level of technology onboard is surreal. Also helps explains why Ford has a lot more cool tech onboard of their Chinese cars vs NA for example.

Mercedes and BMW will always have a space in China…example: while MB sales are down 25%, their top/most luxurious vehicles are 13% up…

I can tell you that no other car maker in China, but American, are suffering 40-50% losses in market share…2025 will be a blood bath for them.

 

[dbsb3233]

you are looking at old data here - for example, Toyota increased their Chinese market share…

it’s not a matter of nacionalizing, I don’t want to sound crazy but some of the Chinese cars are amazing - the level of technology onboard is surreal. Also helps explains why Ford has a lot more cool tech onboard of their Chinese cars vs NA for example.

Mercedes and BMW will always have a space in China…example: while MB sales are down 25%, their top/most luxurious vehicles are 13% up…

I can tell you that no other car maker in China, but American, are suffering 40-50% losses in market share…2025 will be a blood bath for them.

Toyota had a temporary increase in China sales early this year, but that was an anomaly (promotional deals). Latest data shows the decline has resumed (6.9% drop for all of 2024, 6.6% drop in the latest reported month this year). China is going heavy into EVs (47% market share and rising fast) and they're trying to monopolize that market with their own manufacturers. It's mostly ICE that they're still getting from foreign manufacturers, and that's fading by the year.

You're probably right that US automakers are fading faster. But that's pretty much been true in every market. Even inside the US. US automakers used to dominate here, until Japanese, then Korean imports chipped away at it. This chart is older but it shows how US automakers have lost ground (no doubt due in large part to too-high manufacturing costs here).

 

[Blue highway]

Not just Americans cars. China has been pushing out foreign competition from their domestic market for a few decades now. The growth of the Chinese auto industry this century is rather alarming. They're trying to monopolize their domestic market, with eyes on doing the same to other markets.

well, yes they are... but mostly by making really good cars at prices nobody can match.

 

[dbsb3233]

well, yes they are... but mostly by making really good cars at prices nobody can match.

Lately, yes, their offerings have improved dramatically over even just 5 years ago.

Worth noting that there was a ton of government subsidy involved in that, for whatever people want to make of that tactic for attempting to monopolize/dominate the market. But even then, it still costs less to make most things in China than the US or Europe.

I'm not too worried about it, since much of it will change in another decade or two anyway as automobiles gradually shift away from personal car ownership to corporate fleet robotaxi services. Selling rides to people instead of cars.

 

[Blue highway]

Lately, yes, their offerings have improved dramatically over even just 5 years ago.

Worth noting that there was a ton of government subsidy involved in that, for whatever people want to make of that tactic for attempting to monopolize/dominate the market. But even then, it still costs less to make most things in China than the US or Europe.

I'm not too worried about it, since much of it will change in another decade or two anyway as automobiles gradually shift away from personal car ownership to corporate fleet robotaxi services. Selling rides to people instead of cars.

yeah... maybe.... I am convinced that electric cars will dominate even in places currently clinging to the past (looking at you America) but am not convinced that cars will significantly be robo-taxis. I take Uber/Lyft when traveling a lot... and those could all be robo-taxis, But at home I am willing to pay a huge premium for my car to be MY car... with MY stuff in it...

Points to consider

There are ~1.5M rideshare drivers in the US... BUT there are 285M cars in the US. Rideshare is not significantly displacing car ownership... and I don't think it is going to. It might peak at 5% displacement?? but I'd bet less than that in 10 years.

Tesla's FSD take rate is ~15%... Fords BC take rate is less than 20%....yes both costs way too much but people are not beating down the doors for for a robo-taxi (I have them but I am weird)

 

[dbsb3233]

yeah... maybe.... I am convinced that electric cars will dominate even in places currently clinging to the past (looking at you America) but am not convinced that cars will significantly be robo-taxis. I take Uber/Lyft when traveling a lot... and those could all be robo-taxis, But at home I am willing to pay a huge premium for my car to be MY car... with MY stuff in it...

Points to consider

There are ~1.5M rideshare drivers in the US... BUT there are 285M cars in the US. Rideshare is not significantly displacing car ownership... and I don't think it is going to. It might peak at 5% displacement?? but I'd bet less than that in 10 years.

Tesla's FSD take rate is ~15%... Fords BC take rate is less than 20%....yes both costs way too much but people are not beating down the doors for for a robo-taxi (I have them but I am weird)

Depends on the cost. Rideshare is too expensive to displace much personal car ownership. But cut those fares by 50% or more and the financial case gets much more compelling for millions of people at the margins. Some 2-car households become 1 + robo use, saving $thousands/yr. Some seniors give up their cars sooner since they can still be mobile. Some teens get used to using robo and forgo getting a car at all. Gains momentum, services expand, coverage grows. 5% becomes 10%, then 20%, etc.

Slow shift, of course, which is why I say decades. But it's all dependent on cost. If those fares (dictated by costs) don't come way down, it will be more of a ripple than a wave. But it looks like the potential is there to lower cost per ride a lot with electric robopods specifically designed for the basics and high volume use. Time will tell though.

If that does happen, then demand for personal cars will shrink year after year. Robo use, compounded by people hanging onto their cars longer. Many will be EVs by then that should last longer. And with easy roborides readily available as backup, it doesn't become as imperative to rush out and replace a broken car just to get to work next week.

Anyway, may not happen like that, but I could see a path like that over the coming decades IF the costs of fleet robos comes down enough. And I'm not talking a personal car like a Model Y being deployed as a robo, I mean something that fits better like a Zoox, designed specifically for that purpose. We won't need 1000 different car models catering to a billion buyers' tastes (which adds cost) for this, it'll be a handful of efficient robo vehicles that roboride companies will buy en mass (more like airplane or bus choices than personal car choices). They'll pick 2 or 3 sizes that fit their use case best and deploy a quarter million of them.

 

[Snakebitten]

If it wasn't for the insatiable diet for trucks in America, American automobile manufacturers might have been history a couple of decades ago?

I'd argue that if it wasn't for pickup trucks, GM wouldn't have a single product to offer that is actually owned by GM?

 

[dbsb3233]

If it wasn't for the insatiable diet for trucks in America, American automobile manufacturers might have been history a couple of decades ago?

I'd argue that if it wasn't for pickup trucks, GM wouldn't have a single product to offer that is actually owned by GM?

Yep. Ford too. Trucks, SUVs, and other truck-like variants.

And the US might have lost much of that market too if it weren't for the Chicken Tax (which became a permanent 25% tariff on light trucks that still exists to this day).

 

[Blue highway]

Depends on the cost. Rideshare is too expensive to displace much personal car ownership. But cut those fares by 50% or more and the financial case gets much more compelling for millions of people at the margins. Some 2-car households become 1 + robo use, saving $thousands/yr. Some seniors give up their cars sooner since they can still be mobile. Some teens get used to using robo and forgo getting a car at all. Gains momentum, services expand, coverage grows. 5% becomes 10%, then 20%, etc.

Slow shift, of course, which is why I say decades. But it's all dependent on cost. If those fares (dictated by costs) don't come way down, it will be more of a ripple than a wave. But it looks like the potential is there to lower cost per ride a lot with electric robopods specifically designed for the basics and high volume use. Time will tell though.

If that does happen, then demand for personal cars will shrink year after year. Robo use, compounded by people hanging onto their cars longer. Many will be EVs by then that should last longer. And with easy roborides readily available as backup, it doesn't become as imperative to rush out and replace a broken car just to get to work next week.

Anyway, may not happen like that, but I could see a path like that over the coming decades IF the costs of fleet robos comes down enough. And I'm not talking a personal car like a Model Y being deployed as a robo, I mean something that fits better like a Zoox, designed specifically for that purpose. We won't need 1000 different car models catering to a billion buyers' tastes (which adds cost) for this, it'll be a handful of efficient robo vehicles that roboride companies will buy en mass (more like airplane or bus choices than personal car choices). They'll pick 2 or 3 sizes that fit their use case best and deploy a quarter million of them.

You might be right... but long term adoption hinges on costs coming down and I am skeptical that costs will actually fall. Waymo is currently more expensive than an Uber. Not sure about Zoox... But Zoox gets the "car" right... it is sort of the London black cab of robo-taxis. Better fit for purpose than a Y or an I Pace.

 

[dbsb3233]

You might be right... but long term adoption hinges on costs coming down and I am skeptical that costs will actually fall. Waymo is currently more expensive than an Uber. Not sure about Zoox... But Zoox gets the "car" right... it is sort of the London black cab of robo-taxis. Better fit for purpose than a Y or an I Pace.

Yep. It all hinges on cost. Most obvious cost reduction is no driver. But also, things like no leather seats, no fancy sound system, no sunroof option, no tow package, no 18-way seats with massage, no paint upgrades, no high end wheels, etc etc. All the stuff that makes a personal car... personal. Options that take a $40k base vehicle and turn it into a $60k one.

And it adds costs to automakers just to OFFER all those choices. Complicates the production process, ordering, testing, parts inventory, etc. Get rid of the myriad of options and it makes the production process more efficient and cheaper. And more readily automated, requiring less expensive labor.

At least in theory, the costs should come way down. In practice, well, we'll see. And we're still probably talking a decade or two to perfect.

Waymo just uses regular cars, retrofitted. All they really save is the driver cost, and at this point that's probably eaten up in other labor. Regular cars have lots of extra cost built in, aren't as cleanable (like a bus), require manual fueling/charging, etc.

 

[Snakebitten]

Yep. Ford too. Trucks, SUVs, and other truck-like variants.

And the US might have lost much of that market too if it weren't for the Chicken Tax (which became a permanent 25% tariff on light trucks that still exists to this day).

Except Ford still builds and owns its SUV's and sedans that have a Blue Oval on them. And some of them are supposedly profitable in other markets.

GM badges a lot of their product line with Bow Ties and GMC emblems and yet they don't own the design or even the majority ownership of the vehicle.

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