Washington State will ban ICE cars by 2030

[macchiaz-o]

Hope you all had a lovely weekend.

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[JoeDimwit]

Yes, I've seen you use your very special car before as evidence that ICE cars don't depreciate.

Nobody is fooled. Because we all know ICE cars depreciate quickly.

I could probably find a 1/2 ton pickup somewhere that got 30 mpg to prove that pickups get good gas mileage. Nobody would be fooled.


It's easy to tell when someone's position is irrational by how little sense their argument makes.

If only you could tell when your own position was flawed the same way… ?

 

[LagerHead]

What did I say that was wrong? They were using numbers from an EV that wouldn't be available for a year and numbers for an ICE car that was soon to go up in price. The error actually favored the ICE car.

 

[dbsb3233]

Charging infrastructure is simple and cheap compared to gas infrastructure. But the fuel infrastructure costs are hidden in the price of the fuel which is distributed over millions of people. As the market for fueling infrastructure declines, the costs will go up because it will be spread amongst increasingly fewer customers.

This article discusses that gas stations have already been in decline for years due to more efficient vehicles and less demand for gas making the infrastructure uneconomical to support itself. The trend is expected to accelerate. It won't be long before gas becomes so uneconomical only people with plenty of surplus income would consider a gas car for their primary transportation:

How Many Gas Stations Are In U.S.? How Many Will There Be In 10 Years? - MarketWatch

Depends on what you mean by "won't be long". Decades, yes. A few years, no.

The build costs are already sunk for existing gas stations. The profit margin was already slim on them to begin with, so many are just paired with convenience stores or grocery stores or Costco/Sams/etc that are the main profit source (not gas).

The quantity of gas stations will gradually shrink in the coming decades, yes. EV market share may be 30-50% of passenger vehicles sold by the end of this decade, but that still leaves half new, plus most of the used ICE on the roads for many years. And most of the heavier vehicles (private and commercial) will likely still be ICE, unless/until batteries get so good and cheap that they can handle hundreds of kWh's in a single pack. They require a lot more juice.

ICE will gradually shrink, but it'll still be here for many decades.

 

[LagerHead]

Your SS might be worth a million dollars some day for all we know. But that's not typical to what happens to the price of used ICE vehicles. And the transition to EV will accelerate the loss of value of almost all old ICE vehicles because people who can afford a new car don't want to be driving an outdated gas clunker that needs regular servicing and fuel at reasonable prices will be becoming increasingly difficult to find.

 

[LagerHead]

Depends on what you mean by "won't be long". Decades, yes. A few years, no.

The build costs are already sunk for existing gas stations. The profit margin was already slim on them to begin with, so many are just paired with convenience stores or grocery stores or Costco/Sams/etc that are the main profit source (not gas).

The quantity of gas stations will gradually shrink in the coming decades, yes. EV market share may be 30-50% of passenger vehicles sold by the end of this decade, but that still leaves half new, plus most of the used ICE on the roads for many years. And most of the heavier vehicles (private and commercial) will likely still be ICE, unless/until batteries get so good and cheap that they can handle hundreds of kWh's in a single pack. They require a lot more juice.

ICE will gradually shrink, but it'll still be here for many decades.

Have you seen Tony Seba's videos on technological disruption? He's an expert on the speed of adoption of new technologies and he points out that the change always starts slow, then accelerates rapidly before levelling off at near 100% adoption. We are just entering the steep part of the adoption curve.

You can see his recent video here:

(1) Future of Transportation / Keynote: 2020 NC DOT Transportation Summit - YouTube

Technological disruption catches many so called "experts" flat-footed. This is a long-standing principal. Watch the video and tell me what you think.

 

[dbsb3233]

Have you seen Tony Seba's videos on technological disruption? He's an expert on the speed of adoption of new technologies and he points out that the change always starts slow, then accelerates rapidly before levelling off at near 100% adoption. We are just entering the steep part of the adoption curve.

You can see his recent video here:

(1) Future of Transportation / Keynote: 2020 NC DOT Transportation Summit - YouTube

Technological disruption catches many so called "experts" flat-footed. This is a long-standing principal. Watch the video and tell me what you think.

Yes, I've seen enough of his stuff on EVs to see how over-the-top he is with his zealous wishful-thinking time predictions. He tends to let his rose-colored glasses severely cloud his judgement, leading to a severe disconnect with reality.

Not sure if it's that video I saw or maybe one a year earlier of his, but he was predicting something like 70% change by like 2023 IIRC. Downright impossible on the scale he was talking. Hell, it takes many years for car models to go from drawing board to mass production. Took the Mach-E almost 4 years, and it was one of the quicker ones.

He's just totally devoid of reality.

 

[LagerHead]

Yes, I've seen enough of his stuff on EVs to see how over-the-top he is with his zealous wishful-thinking time predictions. He tends to let his rose-colored glasses severely cloud his judgement, leading to a severe disconnect with reality.

Not sure if it's that video I saw or maybe one a year earlier of his, but he was predicting something like 70% change by like 2023 IIRC. Downright impossible on the scale he was talking. Hell, it takes many years for car models to go from drawing board to mass production. Took the Mach-E almost 4 years, and it was one of the quicker ones.

He's just totally devoid of reality.

Tony Seba wrote the book Clean Disruption in 2014. Inside the book are a number of predictive charts and graphs about the cost and penetration of EV's, batteries, cost of computing power, etc..

Guess what? Over 7 years his predictions are basically spot-on. In fact, most of his predictions happened a little quicker than his "devoid of reality" predictions in his book.

Let that sink in.

 

[dbsb3233]

Tony Seba wrote the book Clean Disruption in 2014. Inside the book are a number of predictive charts and graphs about the cost and penetration of EV's, batteries, cost of computing power, etc..

Guess what? Over 7 years his predictions are basically spot-on. In fact, most of his predictions happened a little quicker than his "devoid of reality" predictions in his book.

Let that sink in.

I don't know or care about his past predictions. But the timelines he gave on one I saw were downright ridiculous. Like, fanboy ridiculous.

 

[LagerHead]

I don't know or care about his past predictions. But the timelines he gave on one I saw were downright ridiculous. Like, fanboy ridiculous.

In his 2020 video (linked above), one of his themes is that so-called "experts" have been calling him insane and out-of-touch for over a decade now. And yet his predictions keep proving the "experts" wrong. The fact is, Tony Seba is an expert in the timing of technological disruption.

Calling him "fanboy ridiculous" doesn't phase him a bit - he's used to it. It just goes to show how out-of-touch the status quo "experts" are.

 

[trutolife27]

I don't know or care about his past predictions. But the timelines he gave on one I saw were downright ridiculous. Like, fanboy ridiculous.

and your trying to talk to one. Best to let it go like the wind.

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