Why All Those EV-Battery ‘Breakthroughs’ You Hear About Aren’t Breaking Through

[RickMachE]

Why All Those EV-Battery ‘Breakthroughs’ You Hear About Aren’t Breaking Through
In the superheated market for batteries, promising lab developments often get overhyped by startups. ‘Liar, liar, battery supplier.’

... “When we started Tesla in 2003, the batteries were just good enough, but what we had noticed was that they got better at about 7% to 8% a year, and had for a long time,” says Marc Tarpenning, a co-founder of the company. “It’s been 19 years, and we still haven’t had a step change in battery capacity—it just ticks along at 7% to 8% per year.”

... Even when a promising new battery technology can be made to work by all the measures that matter, another challenge looms just as large: production.

... The result of these long development cycles is that, even when battery tech “breakthroughs” finally make it to market, they might just amount to the next, incremental increase in the capacity of existing battery packs, which continue to get better all the time anyway, says Mr. Tarpenning: “By the time they finally get those things into production, it could be, ‘Oh, it’s just another 8% improvement; look at that.’ ”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-al...zhxmigp4w12&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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[Mach1E]

Sounds about right.

Last time I read a story about a new battery company that would “revolutionize the automotive industry,” their “proof of concept” was a tiny battery in a fitness tracker watch.

If it works in a 1 mm battery, why wouldn’t it work in a 1000 lb car battery? ?

 

[OH2AZ2OH]

And if they made 1, why can't they make 50,000?

 

[nvabill]

I found this one interesting, wonder if it is just another overhyped unverifiable story?

Tesla Travels over 700 Miles on a Single Charge with New Prototype Battery

https://www.thefpsreview.com/2022/0... anxiety could truly be,Our Next Energy (ONE).

 

[voxel]

Solid State batteries have been promised for 10+ years. Battery manufacturing has vastly improved but I've yet to see a single solid state battery commercially available even for hobby use.

I've swung to other side - to use less dense, less advanced batteries like LiFE/A123/LFPs. Lithium and Iron are plentiful and these batteries are much cheaper and have up to 5x more full charge cycles. Cobalt and nickel are expensive and problematic to mine. This will lead to widespread adoption of plug-ins.

I'm also a big proponent of PHEVs over BEVs also

 

[mdolan92869]

And when widespread, commercial fusion power comes along in 10 years, it'll be so cheap to charge those new batteries up!

 

[FordMachEGo]

Dilithium Crystals

 

[TRP]

Dilithium Crystals

Or take the Ulidium 238 out of my Space Modulator

 

[Mach1E]

I found this one interesting, wonder if it is just another overhyped unverifiable story?

Tesla Travels over 700 Miles on a Single Charge with New Prototype Battery

https://www.thefpsreview.com/2022/01/17/tesla-travels-over-700-miles-on-a-single-charge-with-new-prototype-battery/#:~:text=Tesla Travels over 700 Miles on a Single Charge with New Prototype Battery,-by Tsing Mui&text=Range anxiety could truly be,Our Next Energy (ONE).

From article:
“ONE’s video demonstrates how its Gemini battery technology can power a Tesla Model S for 752 miles on a single charge (average speed of 55 mph).”

Issue 1: 55 mph. Not a realistic range test speed. More like a hypermiling test. Any BEV can increase range just chilling at 55 mph.

Issue 2: How many KWh? Is it really a better tech or just a larger battery?


Just watched the video. It has zero details as well. They drove super slow on I-75 (saw people passing them quickly) and no traffic. They also give no more details on the battery.

 

[phidauex]

I buy batteries for very large stationary energy storage applications (large scale renewables and grid storage), and the amount of BS we hear is unbelievable. Amazingly even companies that are fairly far along in their development get to a point where they either haven't figured out some basic operating principles for their product OR they start actively lying about it to keep up investment.

We've been told things by battery manufacturers many times that were immediately proven false the moment we started integration testing. Then they backpedal, change the story, you hear different things from the applications engineers, the sales engineers and the management, etc.

Technology around this stuff is so advanced and has been around so long that big step changes just aren't likely. Not impossible, but not even 1/100 for startups and promising lab tests. That is part of why I bought an EV now. Batteries will be better next year (but not cheaper), and the year after, but no major revolutions are coming, just incremental improvements - might as well start enjoying the benefits today rather than waiting for a massive change that won't come.

 

[Nklem]

I agree. total theoretical BS. I love the 4680 Tesla crap, it’s like D cells rather than AA’s. Same watts per volume and weight just a larger cell. Crazy. Yes you can pull more amps and it’s a little easier to wire making the pack a little smaller but charge capacity is nearly identical per volume or KG.

I want the aluminum air battery that has a 2700 mile range for sure…

I too agree PHEV should have been pushed heavily first before BEVs. Diesel Hybrids, 100 MPG plus…

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