The end of the federal EV tax credit?

[shutterbug]

I call(poker term) your fifteen year old report, and raise with one that’s two hours old!

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/trillion-dollar-question-fossil-fuel-subsidies-2024-11-15/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

The article you point to talks about world-wide subsidies, and points out that they are split between electricity, oil and natural gas. Oil is the only one that has any impact on gasoline prices. Fully eliminating subsidies on oil production will not have any meaningful effect on gasoline prices, much less cause the to "sky rocket".

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[Jimrpa]

A bunch of automakers and battery companies invested into factories based on the $7500 Made in America EV requirements.

Would be a damned shame if all those states that won the factories lost those jobs because the tax incentives got killed.

I would be laughing my … off at someone. Who that someone is, is left as an exercise for the student ?

 

[Jimrpa]

The price of oil is based on the world price, government incentives to big oil just adds to their profits.

But if you put huge tariffs on all that imported gas, people will be motivated to buy cheaper, made in America” gas?

 

[Jimrpa]

China/Asia is the biggest car market.
China is making AND selling EV's in droves.
China is making them cheaper.

US is behind in the EV game .

GM is pretty much absent in Europe.
Ford not far behind.
Cannot compete in the EV game in China.

If the EV tax credit is eliminated, and EV sales in the US crater, that will signal a pivot to ICE for US automakers.....thus sealing their fate and making them a domestic ONLY automaker, while the rest of the world moves on and continues EV advancement.

Killing automotive and technology advancement (EV) in the US in favor of Big Oil while the rest of the world leads in this area (along with renewable energy) is a fools errand that only benefits fossil fuel lobby.


Clowns are selling this as US energy independence "Merica freedum and power"
Meanwhile China leads in renewable energy, and EV's.
US will continue its slow downward slide.

China also leads the world in power generation by coal, so there’s that ?

of course, the US will quickly catch up as soon as we get all those strip mines opened again! ?

Coal Power Producers

 

[johnnycombo]

I don't think people trying to get by on lower incomes would consider that a letter deal. When they need new transportation they would need to buy an older clinker to be able to afford to make it to work.
A lower priced EV without all the bells and whistles might be the answer.

Don’t forget there’s also a growing used electric vehicle market that didn’t exist just a few years ago and right now there is a $4,000 US federal credit on used EVs under $25,000. So that makes the Hertz Teslas’ that are one or two years old with a power train warranty, look pretty good. And the total miles that you can drive an electric vehicle is much higher than an ICE. And the cost to drive and maintain an ev is much lower.

https://www.hertzcarsales.com/used-tesla.htm?geoZip=98848&geoRadius=0

 

[johnnycombo]

The article you point to talks about world-wide subsidies, and points out that they are split between electricity, oil and natural gas. Oil is the only one that has any impact on gasoline prices. Fully eliminating subsidies on oil production will not have any meaningful effect on gasoline prices, much less cause the to "sky rocket".

I for one would welcome the fall of fossil fuels, oil and natural gas mostly come from the same wells! So a subsidy for one is a subsidy for the other.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=13571

 

[zvez]

China/Asia is the biggest car market.
China is making AND selling EV's in droves.
China is making them cheaper.

US is behind in the EV game .

GM is pretty much absent in Europe.
Ford not far behind.
Cannot compete in the EV game in China.

If the EV tax credit is eliminated, and EV sales in the US crater, that will signal a pivot to ICE for US automakers.....thus sealing their fate and making them a domestic ONLY automaker, while the rest of the world moves on and continues EV advancement.

Killing automotive and technology advancement (EV) in the US in favor of Big Oil while the rest of the world leads in this area (along with renewable energy) is a fools errand that only benefits fossil fuel lobby.


Clowns are selling this as US energy independence "Merica freedum and power"
Meanwhile China leads in renewable energy, and EV's.
US will continue its slow downward slide.

I think a pivot away from EVs is baked in the mix over the next four years, as are anything to benefit the environment, it's a new era, unfortunately.

 

[johnnycombo]

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ail&utm_term=0_7e18d5fd93-1e5b5978cd-54757744

 

[shelnian]

But if you put huge tariffs on all that imported gas, people will be motivated to buy cheaper, made in America” gas?

Most all gasoline is made in America and America produces more oil then we use. import tariffs will only impact gas prices coming from gulf coast refineries, that get their oil from OPEC because that’s what their refineries are design to refine. This will make prices higher not lower.

 

[phil]

I think a pivot away from EVs is baked in the mix...

I'll be surprised if the US market pivots away from EVs, in the sense of any meaningful reduction in market share. I do expect a decline in EV market growth rates, to more sustainable, natural levels if subsidies are withdrawn.

EVs still have their advantages, as well as their high costs. Tesla and the foreign manufacturers will presumably remain in the market, but with higher prices. Rivian and Lucid and the like may fail, though that was already a real possibility. Most interesting will be the reactions of Ford and GM - how do they manage their EV segments to best position them for long-term market success? I dunno.

 

[moog]

But if you put huge tariffs on all that imported gas, people will be motivated to buy cheaper, made in America” gas?

Somebody does not understand how the crude oil market works.
The US imports crude and exports refined for profit due to excess refinery capacity.

Tariffs on oil will raise the cost of US gasoline as refiners will no longer be able to make profit of refining the imported heavy crude. Tariffs will eliminate a big source of US refining business.

The idea that the US Consumes more oil than it produces has been dead for decades.

It’s simple economics: commodities are a global market. Creating a “walled kingdom “ via Tariff wars will only hurt the country implementing them in a global market.

Not to mention we import most our oil from Canada and Mexico and we have multiple free trade agreements with them so tariffs would more than likely violate the agreements.

 

[Art]

Because last time it was ONLY Tesla that lost the credit - the market in which they competed was unchanged. Tesla had to reduce their prices to remain competitive in their market. That was the obvious market response, and Tesla did indeed cut prices, just as you say.

This time would be very different. The ENTIRE EV segment would lose the $7,500 tax credit. A falling tide lowers all boats.

It is true that there are details that would impact the amount and timing of the EV segment price increases - EVs do still compete against ICE cars as part of the same market, some manufacturers (in the short term) are not qualifying for the full amount of federal subsidy, some consumers are ineligible for the subsidy, etc. But the big picture impact of ending the federal tax credit will clearly be a substantial price increase for all EVs, and likely a significant slowdown of EV market penetration and consumer adoption. Neither Tesla nor Ford nor anyone else is going to eat a new financial loss of $7,500 per vehicle and pass the loss on to stockholders. That just can not happen. EV prices must go up.

Elon Musk benefited by getting help from the Government for many years. Now Tesla can put out cars faster than any manufacturer (EV or ICE).

Elon has stated that no subsidies should be given to any car manufacturer, and he will head of the department of efficiency.
Competition will be lessened by the elimination of the IRS credit.
Now Tesla will rule the EV market as well as the space program.
The space program will fall in Elons lap and that is what he'll get as a reward from supporting Trump.
Trump doesn't believe in climate change and the EV market, so say goodbye to all EV competitors to Tesla.
That is a big loss for the world trying to combat climate change, but the people have spoken, and the major polluting nation has announced drill baby, drill.

 

[AliRafiee]

It was something that wasn’t going to last forever anyway. Hopefully new EV prices will drop accordingly

 

[Bkinyoun57]

This would persuade me to pay off my Ford Option next year, instead of getting a new electric car.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...eam-aims-kill-biden-ev-tax-credit-2024-11-14/

Not just EV’s. Proposed tariffs will send the price of electronics and other goods through the roof. Upgrade your televisions and cell phones now. Clothing, shoes and even furniture prices will go up.

 

[moog]

China also leads the world in power generation by coal, so there’s that ?

of course, the US will quickly catch up as soon as we get all those strip mines opened again! ?

Coal Power Producers

They do in fact lead in coal production, however they export quite a bit.

But coal used for power is a different animal.

In 2023, coal accounted for 60% of electricity generation in China.

In 2024 it’s down to a record low of 53%.
Renewable energy in China is around 44%.

China and the world know renewable energy is the future for energy and national security. It’s why China is moving fast away from fossil fuel.

Fossil fuels are a dead end.
The technology for renewables is here.
Countries who stay with fossil fuels will be left behind

Hence why there is a push in the US for new nuclear power generation. It’s cheap clean, energy production.

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