20-30 years for EV transition?

[Mach1E]

That’s what the President/CEO of VW is predicting-

https://www.motortrend.com/events/h...rce=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=print

“VW does not offer hybrids in the U.S., but Di Si said they have the technology and are working to add them to the lineup. He sees hybrids as a great transition technology for the next 10-15 years, at a minimum, with pure EV sales growing but at a slower pace than previously forecast. He thinks the complete changeover to pure EVs will take 20-30 years.”

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[ctenidae]

Probably more 20 than 30, but that sounds about right to me. Depends on what "complete" means, too. Last gas station won't close for 50 years after the last ICE sells.

 

[david_quick]

That’s what the President/CEO of VW is predicting-

https://www.motortrend.com/events/h...rce=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=print

“VW does not offer hybrids in the U.S., but Di Si said they have the technology and are working to add them to the lineup. He sees hybrids as a great transition technology for the next 10-15 years, at a minimum, with pure EV sales growing but at a slower pace than previously forecast. He thinks the complete changeover to pure EVs will take 20-30 years.”

I generally agree that hybrids are a good transition tech. This is especially true with one that operates as a BEV most of the time. When the majority of your driving need are met on electric power and you rarely need to fork out $,20,$30,$40,$50…. for gas. People naturally take the leap.

The issue is how long this takes. Most people are keeping new car purchases 12 years. When BEVs are commonly available across the industry brands in maybe 3-5 years I would expect people to feel comfortable enough to begin the transition.

I drove my Volt for 10 years 90% electric before making the shift. If it had been solely up to me I would have gone Tesla in stead of the Volt. However there is another person here that gets a vote and she was skeptical. 10 years later she was on board. I doubt those dynamics will change.

 

[Larry Paul]

I think it depends on when the clock is started for 20-30 years.

I personally have been driving on battery power for more than 25 years.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/my-25-years-of-driving-evs.33558/

 

[Adventureboy]

Not to knock Hybrids, but they have to carry both technologies and have more complexity than ICE or EV. The transition to EV is happening now and I think VW is late to the game on Hybrids.

How long the transition takes is anyone's guess. Outside factors like oil prices, taxes, government policy, etc. will play a big part in how long it takes and it will be different in every country. All else equal, I believe there will be another step-up wave in a year or two as folks get more comfortable with their friend's EVs and EVs gain range and faster charging capabilities.

 

[Mach1E]

Not to knock Hybrids, but they have to carry both technologies and have more complexity than ICE or EV. The transition to EV is happening now and I think VW is late to the game on Hybrids.

How long the transition takes is anyone's guess. Outside factors like oil prices, taxes, government policy, etc. will play a big part in how long it takes and it will be different in every country. All else equal, I believe there will be another step-up wave in a year or two as folks get more comfortable with their friend's EVs and EVs gain range and faster charging capabilities.

Hybrids are more complex, but the end results serves most people’s needs.

Personally, I love the EV part but don’t like the battery part.

EV- powerful, efficient, smooth, quiet and inexpensive.

Battery- heavy, slow and expensive.

My hope is in the next 20-30 years we figure out a better fuel source than batteries to power EVs.

 

[Larry Paul]

Hybrids are more complex, but the end results serves most people’s needs.

Personally, I love the EV part but don’t like the battery part.

EV- powerful, efficient, smooth, quiet and inexpensive.

Battery- heavy, slow and expensive.

My hope is in the next 20-30 years we figure out a better fuel source than batteries to power EVs.

New materials will continue to be developed (perhaps solid state batteries). We need more energy dense and light batteries for not just cars, but for our portable devices etc.

The electric motor makes the most sense for turning the wheels of a vehicle. Where that electricity comes from-will continue to evolve.

 

[Mach1E]

New materials will continue to be developed (perhaps solid state batteries). We need more energy dense and light batteries for not just cars, but for our portable devices etc.

The electric motor makes the most sense for turning the wheels of a vehicle. Where that electricity comes from-will continue to evolve.

Even theoretical solid state batteries are still too slow, heavy and expensive.

My hope is for something that’s faster, lighter and less expensive than carrying around a tank full of gasoline.

Until we have that, it’s a compromise and will continue to be “alternative energy.”

Energies only get the label “alternative,” when they’re full of compromises.

 

[ChehRob]

The supposed hybrid queen was Toyota. Had they really been serious about that it would have been the standard on most of their models about 2015. I understand that they are making only a few thousand a year RAV4 Primes, which is really an outstanding vehicle. Hope I misread something.

 

[Larry Paul]

Even theoretical solid state batteries are still too slow, heavy and expensive.

My hope is for something that’s faster, lighter and less expensive than carrying around a tank full of gasoline.

Until we have that, it’s a compromise and will continue to be “alternative energy.”

Energies only get the label “alternative,” when they’re full of compromises.

I hear you, but there will continue to be development.

"While lithium-ion batteries typically require at least 40 minutes to charge at a DC fast-charging station, solid-state batteries can achieve a full charge in as little as 10 to 15 minutes.


Another advantage of solid-state EV batteries is the reduced fire risk."

from: https://energycentral.com/c/cp/soli... batteries typically,is the reduced fire risk.


and a few other articles:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/23/cars...h-promises-to-radically-change-evs/index.html

https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/the-future-of-solid-state-batteries

 

[Mach1E]

I hear you, but there will continue to be development.

"While lithium-ion batteries typically require at least 40 minutes to charge at a DC fast-charging station, solid-state batteries can achieve a full charge in as little as 10 to 15 minutes.


Another advantage of solid-state EV batteries is the reduced fire risk."

from: https://energycentral.com/c/cp/solid-state-ev-battery-technology-range-improved-safety-and-faster-charging#:~:text=While lithium-ion batteries typically,is the reduced fire risk.


and a few other articles:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/23/cars...h-promises-to-radically-change-evs/index.html

https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/the-future-of-solid-state-batteries

I’ve read up on them. But again, they’re slower, heavier, more expensive and less convent than gasoline……. They shouldn’t be the end goal. And that’s still a big IF they ever make it to market in a reasonably priced automobile.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

So I was there in person (economic club event / auto show preview) and can tell you his remarks did not land well with the crowd or the press. Perhaps VW needs 20-30 years, others not so long. He admitted that VW company has zero hybrids in the US (working on it!). He was pretty defensive about his company’s position in China and its ability to compete with BYD.

I liked the ID.Buzz, but am very skeptical of this super high demand he’s expecting. Reminds me of Farley tooling the MME plant to 300k units.

Here’s something else that Mr Di Si (in the white suit in the middle of winter) was bragging about: EA deployment of 108+ chargers (yes, that’s right, all fixed now).

 

[Larry Paul]

I’ve read up on them. But again, they’re slower, heavier, more expensive and less convent than gasoline……. They shouldn’t be the end goal. And that’s still a big IF they ever make it to market in a reasonably priced automobile.

Looking at an apples to apples comparison at the batteries (not the structure, electronics and cooling) My 2002 Rav4EV has batteries that weighs around 989 lbs and only has 26.8 kWh of useable storage (NiMh). This was about 0.8 gallons of gasoline equivalent.

The extended range pack on a MME weighs in at 880 lbs of batteries and holds 91kWh of usable storage. That is the equivalent of 2.7 gallons of gasoline.

For my needs the existing charging rate and range is plenty for my (and truly for most peoples) needs (even if they don't realize it). Advances will continue to improve with lighter batteries giving more range and faster speeds enabling more and more people to adapt to a BEV.

I suspect there will be a growing number of other choices of vehicles that use an electric motor exclusively for propulsion but will offer for people that need more, both range extended driving (generators) as well as larger capacities and faster charging over the next 3-30+ years.

Keep in mind that EVs are just at the early part of the "early adopters" phase on the Rogers technology adaption curve.

https://whatfix.com/blog/technology-adoption-curve/

Many more advancements will come.

 

[phil]

It could happen that way. But a lot can change in 30 years. Pure electric is unlikely to be the ultimate pinnacle of automotive propulsion technology. What will come next?

 

[Larry Paul]

It could happen that way. But a lot can change in 30 years. Pure electric is unlikely to be the ultimate pinnacle of automotive propulsion technology. What will come next?

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are also electric propulsion, but until someone develops a way to make the hydrogen more affordably, it does not sound like it will be hydrogen at least in the short term.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gaurav...a-hammer-blow-by-shells-exit/?sh=2badc43f7fbc

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