Demand dropping / asking price dropping?

[mkhuffman]

There will be some of that (particularly as a 2nd car in the household), but as a general rule, people don't like to be limited like that. Especially when spending big bucks. When a "cheap" EV still costs 30+ grand, buying a BEV with 150 mile range (100 practical) is gonna be a hard sell for many when they can buy a similar ICE or PHEV for the same price that's capable of 400 miles.

PHEVs may become the bigger draw in that lower price range, unless/until batteries get way better/cheaper.

My wife's car will go 500+ miles on the highway before we have to stop for gas, even in the winter. And there are tons of gas stations, so no planning is needed to figure out where we should stop.

I keep telling my wife we should get a Rivian R1S to replace her XT5, but she refuses. She sees what I deal with and what I complain about. She spent an hour with me at a Starbucks waiting for my car to charge so we could get to my mom's house. That pretty much did it for her.

As far as I will be able to get her to go will be a PHEV, and I think it will be the bigger draw for the general public as you said. Except I am willing to bet my salary that I will be the one plugging in her car in the garage, and she will never do it. Never. Which is the way I think most people will behave until they have a BEV and are forced to plug in. Only efficiency nerds will plug in a gas powered car.

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[4sallypat]

Hehe! Like I agree, but tell that to the lady today whom I helped charge her month old MB EQS. She and hubby didn't have charging at the house, so they use EA. Go figure!

Ha, I ran into the same at EA - a senior owner of a $100K MB EV said he does not have a charger at home and charges exclusively on DCFC.

He didn't want to have a charger installed that takes overnight to charge.

 

[MightyMike]

I predict that EV adoption will face three main hurdles (other than the obvious political one). The first is cost. On paper EV's should cost less to produce, but the capital investment to stand up the manufacturing facilitates is always going to be more expensive then capital equipment for ICE vehicles that was depreciated years ago (or purchased when the cost of capital was lower). Standing up new supply chains. We know it is possible (from observing Tesla profitability), but we don't know that traditional automakers can make the adjustments and do it.

The 2nd issue is going to be the Winter. (Winter is coming!). I really don't think people understand how much a 50% reduction in range is going to affect people's perceptions on driving electric vehicles.

The 3rd issue is going to be resale value over the long term. most of this country doesn't buy new vehicles. They buy used vehicles. Until we have demonstrated that 2nd and 3rd generation purchasers get the same value out of their used electric vehicle that they get from their used ICE vehicles, they won't commit to the used market. What that means is that if a new vehicle owner buys an electric vehicle today, they expect a trade in value equivalent or better to an ICE vehicle. What if it was worse. What if it was much worse? Suddenly the "value" of electric vehicles falls way off. This has yet to be demonstrated at scale, so we really don't know how this market will settle out long term.

Mike

 

[gryphon]

I keep telling my wife we should get a Rivian R1S to replace her XT5

I would recommend that you put in a reservation if you think you may want one before 2025!

 

[voxel]

My wife's car will go 500+ miles on the highway before we have to stop for gas, even in the winter. And there are tons of gas stations, so no planning is needed to figure out where we should stop.

I keep telling my wife we should get a Rivian R1S to replace her XT5, but she refuses. She sees what I deal with and what I complain about. She spent an hour with me at a Starbucks waiting for my car to charge so we could get to my mom's house. That pretty much did it for her.

As far as I will be able to get her to go will be a PHEV, and I think it will be the bigger draw for the general public as you said. Except I am willing to bet my salary that I will be the one plugging in her car in the garage, and she will never do it. Never. Which is the way I think most people will behave until they have a BEV and are forced to plug in. Only efficiency nerds will plug in a gas powered car.

Bet your salary? If your wife got a RAV4 Prime there is a significant difference between EV mode and gas/HV mode. One is buttery smooth and silent. The other turns on the shaky engine that requires proper application of the gas pedal to avoid over-revving.

Your wife would like to stay in EV mode and would plug in to stay that way.

 

[phil]

I keep telling my wife we should get a Rivian R1S to replace her XT5, but she refuses.

She sounds like a sensible woman.

 

[phil]

Your wife would like to stay in EV mode and would plug in to stay that way.

Except it sounds like she will not have to.

 

[dbsb3233]

Ha, I ran into the same at EA - a senior owner of a $100K MB EV said he does not have a charger at home and charges exclusively on DCFC.

He didn't want to have a charger installed that takes overnight to charge.

Which is silly because that's arguably the biggest benefit of owning an EV -- the ease and convenience (and fuel $savings) of just plugging in overnight in the comfort of your own garage. No more trips to the gas station (or worse, half-hour DCFCs near home).

Once people do that a few times, they quickly realize how convenient that is. That's a big part of why I think hydrogen (for passenger cars) is pretty much dead once EVs take over. The benefits of easy/cheap home charging will get people hooked, and they won't want to go back to fuel stations once or twice every week.

 

[mkhuffman]

Bet your salary? If your wife got a RAV4 Prime there is a significant difference between EV mode and gas/HV mode. One is buttery smooth and silent. The other turns on the shaky engine that requires proper application of the gas pedal to avoid over-revving.

Your wife would like to stay in EV mode and would plug in to stay that way.

Maybe, but I think she will complain about the crappy driving experience and want to get rid of the RAV4 Prime instead. I was actually considering the Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring. I bet that car drives just fine when she doesn't plug it in.

 

[louc757]

I hope you are right but the trend is ahead of your timing.

my car is discounted Heavily and the below example too.

I looked at that car back on 8/25. I think it was $76K back then. It is still for sale now, and down below $64K. Because the price was so high, I ordered a new 23 GTPE for about the same amount (at the time) of a used car. I was willing to wait.

 

[voxel]

2022s are being sold at MSRP at a dealer that used to mark them up $10K

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/fa97637f-7e3b-46a6-82c2-c63bc3b29390/

I traded in my GTPE for a Premium in Oct to that dealer. Got $71K and they sold it for it for $75K a few days later. Market has plummeted since then.

I vastly prefer the Premium. I only consider a GTPE if it lost 500lbs and went to 800V. Too much of a pig on the track.

 

[AhardFSU]

Ha, I ran into the same at EA - a senior owner of a $100K MB EV said he does not have a charger at home and charges exclusively on DCFC.

He didn't want to have a charger installed that takes overnight to charge.

That's one of the selling points of getting an EV....plugging in at home. Sheesh!

 

[heisnuts]

My MME is my first BEV. When people ask me about it, I am very clear regarding the challenges that face BEV drivers. I basically tell them BEVs are not ready for the typical driver. The charging infrastructure sucks and range is a serious shortcoming, especially in winter. Fans make excuses for these challenges, but most people won't put up with it. IMO, we need 500 mile HIGHWAY range cars before they can really be considered as ICE replacement for most people.

I agree battery technology will improve but we need to double the size of the batteries currently used in cars like the MME to even get close to a 500 mile highway range MME.

To bring this back to the OP, many people are buying BEVs now who are really not ready for them. I expect many will be traded in or sold, replaced with an ICEV. Which will drive down demand for BEVs. When that happens is hard to predict, but I think it will happen within the next few years.

I think you are spot on. My wife is the typical get in and drive kind of person. She tells me all the time how inconvenient and frustrating the car would be if it was her daily driver. If anything it has convinced her even more that she will not be switching to an EV anytime soon.

I think the biggest challenge is somewhat range, but more public charging infrastructure. When we get to a place where public charging is as common as gas stations (especially if they are located places like grocery stores where the car will be parked anyway) AND charging times are reduced to 15 minutes like the Hyundai Ioniq 5, I think there will be a lot less resistance to EVs. The other BIG factor is that the reliability of the public charges will have to improve a lot over the current status. The longer it takes for ALL of the above to come to reality the longer it is going to take before EVs become common place.

 

[Rpgonzalez]

I agree that some of the projections (and the laws) are silly and will probably never be met. Especially the "No ICE sales" ones. While 2035 is still a long way off and a lot of things can change with technology, I put the odds of actually having no ICE sales in 2035 at less than 5%. That's mostly virtue signalling. There will likely be certain needs that will remain ICE for much longer, and that's fine.

The targets also get fuzzy as to whether they count PHEVs as EV or ICE? 50% market share of BEV + PHEV in a decade, I can see. But probably not 50% BEV alone.

Could fuel cell vehicles be an alternative to this requirement?. It would satisfy the driver who wants the ability to refuel whenever they want.

I also saw an intriguing set up at the LA auto show. according to this, a lot of the inefficiencies of hydrogen fuel cells comes from distribution. The solution is an auto driving tanker truck that creates hydrogen AT the renewable power plant, then drives it straight to your house on a subscription plan.

 

[dbsb3233]

Could fuel cell vehicles be an alternative to this requirement?. It would satisfy the driver who wants the ability to refuel whenever they want.

I also saw an intriguing set up at the LA auto show. according to this, a lot of the inefficiencies of hydrogen fuel cells comes from distribution. The solution is an auto driving tanker truck that creates hydrogen AT the renewable power plant, then drives it straight to your house on a subscription plan.

I don't think hydrogen will make it as a personal car fuel (beyond niche). As you say, it's got a distribution problem. Even if they can automate some sort of home delivery, that's not likely to be cheap. It would still need distribution hubs all over so that the home delivery routes wouldn't be too long to be practical. And generating hydrogen usually takes a lot of electricity, so those plants are usually located in places with lots of cheap electricity, like paired with solar farms in the Southwest, or even paired with nuclear plants.

I see hydrogen being more of a fuel for industrial use (plants, factories, maybe large commercial vehicles), but not passenger cars.

It also can't compete on price with residential electricity for BEVs, which tends to run around 1/3rd the price of gasoline and H2. And even H2 delivery isn't as convenient as just plugging it in your garage at home. Even though there's DCFC issues on the road (that will get much better), 90% of BEV refueling is at home for most people, on cheap residential rates. On balance, that benefit is the biggie that most people won't want to give up once they get used to it.

I'd also argue that we don't need to totally eliminate ICE anyway. Getting like 80% of the miles on electric is plenty good enough.

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