dbsb3233

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They should add the the charging stations should be covered like regular pumps. Out here anyways, the pumps are always covered but the charging stations are out in the open. Hot sun or precipitation make for an unpleasant charging experience. Adequate space between chargers makes sense also. Having the chargers so close together that only one can be used makes having them pointless.
Those are nice luxuries, but they also add cost. Every additional cost element added uses up the budgets faster, and thus slows expansion.

Personally, I'd put more DCFC stations built in more locations as a higher priority than adding amenities. At least for the next handful of years. After they get most highways well covered with capacity, that should coincide with more usage and more revenues to support the spending of money on more amenities.

 

mkhuffman

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Tesla had to do that because (1) there was virtually no DCFC already in place, and (2) EVs are all they sold (no ICE to make revenue from in the mean time).

But legacy automakers have neither of those problems. They have no reason to spend $billions building charging networks because there's already a growing DCFC network in place, and they still make most of their money from ICE sales. Plus every EV they make sells like hot cakes. They're not losing any sales for lack of chargers, so there's no incentive to throw money at it.
We normally agree, but I have to agree with @KevinS on this one.

As an example, VW has said they will stop building ICE vehicles. Of course they can change their position, but if that is truly what they plan to do, they better make sure their customers can use the products they sell. Otherwise VW will go bankrupt. And maybe they will go bankrupt, but certainly they are motivated beyond just dieselgate to build a charging network.

All the legacy car manufacturers are investing billions into EVs. If the bottom drops out of the EV market because of the lack of infrastructure, they will have wasted billions and their stock prices will take a huge hit.

They are motivated, and probably the reason they are not putting more of those billions into a charging network is because of government action. If the government is going to do it, why should they? So again I say - no subsidies!!!
 

dbsb3233

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We normally agree, but I have to agree with @KevinS on this one.

As an example, VW has said they will stop building ICE vehicles. Of course they can change their position, but if that is truly what they plan to do, they better make sure their customers can use the products they sell. Otherwise VW will go bankrupt. And maybe they will go bankrupt, but certainly they are motivated beyond just dieselgate to build a charging network.

All the legacy car manufacturers are investing billions into EVs. If the bottom drops out of the EV market because of the lack of infrastructure, they will have wasted billions and their stock prices will take a huge hit.

They are motivated, and probably the reason they are not putting more of those billions into a charging network is because of government action. If the government is going to do it, why should they? So again I say - no subsidies!!!
That's years away though. Even VW's "aggressive" timeline is still like 2030/2035 to go fully EV. And by then the US will likely be pretty well covered by DCFC already.

It's a sliding scale, of course. By 2025 there will be probably 15% market share of EVs being sold, and that's significant. But at the rate DCFC stations are filling in, a lot of the holes will be patched by then. EA alone will have pretty good coverage. 2025 is their target for this map. And that doesn't count all the other networks and states adding their own DCFC too. (Including Tesla Superchargers that will offer CCS by then.)

I think legacy automakers are looking at the landscape and the timelines and see there's just no good reason to spend a bunch investing in DCFC, because they see it happening anyway. Current drivers are frustrated that it's not all in place in 2022, of course, but the pace is well ahead of the EV sales market share for it, IMO. Most vehicle sales will remain ICE/hybrid for probably another decade as this gradually ramps up.

Large-732-ElectrifyAmericaAnnouncesitsBoostPlantoMorethanDoubleitsCurrentEVChargingNetworkbyEn...png
 

Mirak

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But to answer your question, @Mirak, we need to cut environmental regulations that are driving up the cost of producing electricity. We need to cut environmental and other permitting regulations that are making it more expensive to build charging stations. The cost of equipment will come down as more is produced, and as demand increases.

But if the cost of electricity keeps going up, it may never be possible for charging stations to make money. And whatever infrastructure the government builds will suck, as proven by all the other things they have built and failed to maintain.
I think we need to consider the cost of electricity separate from the cost of the hardware. They seem like very different issues.

The biggest hurdle to wide scale DCFC deployment - which I think was the subject of this thread - is the cost of the hardware. There’s just no business case for it without massive subsidies - either from government or private investment.

The cost of electricity for DCFC is just like the cost of gasoline for gas stations. A competitive market will only allow chargers/stations to charge consumers the cost of the fuel plus a small markup for profit. We’d all (well, I guess except the diehard greenies) love for our electricity to be as cheap as possible, and reducing regs and green energy mandates would obviously help reduce prices, but that isn’t really relevant to DCFC expansion….

…unless you are positing that electricity prices will get so extreme that they reduce demand for EVs, and thereby demand for DCFC. And the answer there is, sure, maybe, just like skyrocketing gas prices have reduced long-distance driving. But really electricity could get a lot more expensive and it would still be much cheaper than refueling an ICE at today’s prices.

In the long run, as EVs replace ICE and the demand for electricity skyrockets, I can virtually guarantee you that the cost of refueling will be commensurate, if not greater than, gasoline. Right now we EV early adopters are leaching off of pricing that is unsustainable in the long run. There is no free lunch in the long term. Here is a great article published today on this very point:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/the-end-of-the-millennial-lifestyle-subsidy/ar-AAYoEp5

So in summary:
1. We all want cheap electricity.
2. Reducing regs would help reduce the price of electricity.
3. The price of electricity really is not a hurdle to DCFC expansion - it’s the price of hardware.
 

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As an example, VW has said they will stop building ICE vehicles. Of course they can change their position, but if that is truly what they plan to do, they better make sure their customers can use the products they sell. Otherwise VW will go bankrupt. And maybe they will go bankrupt, but certainly they are motivated beyond just dieselgate to build a charging network.
I disagree that would make them go bankrupt. Tesla has not needed ICE vehicles to turn a profit and burned through the tax rebate subsidies and is making a profit, and so there is no reason others can't.

For ~50% of the vehicles sold, it's not an issue. They are at a house with L2 charging, and perhaps shared with someone who has a ICE of PHEV as secondary vehicle. Now, a manufacturer going "BEV only" may be cutting their potential market in half without country wide infrastructure updates needed to well support that other 50%, but it does not mean they will go bankrupt on the smaller focused market.

Certainly they have motivation to build a better charging network so their vehicles are appealing to more than 50% and so they can have income on a recurring basis when people charge and not just the initial sale, but isn't strictly required to sell 100% BEV.
 


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In terms of price of electricity... the price of solar has been going down which should be stabilizing electricity prices from going up too much more. Of course to have enough solar (or wind) and batteries to support fast charging and have energy stored up to handle poor weather / night would require massive price increase on the per station startup cost, but far lower operating cost and TCO if enough customers.
 

mkhuffman

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That's years away though. Even VW's "aggressive" timeline is still like 2030/2035 to go fully EV. And by then the US will likely be pretty well covered by DCFC already.

It's a sliding scale, of course. By 2025 there will be probably 15% market share of EVs being sold, and that's significant. But at the rate DCFC stations are filling in, a lot of the holes will be patched by then. EA alone will have pretty good coverage. 2025 is their target for this map. And that doesn't count all the other networks and states adding their own DCFC too. (Including Tesla Superchargers that will offer CCS by then.)

I think legacy automakers are looking at the landscape and the timelines and see there's just no good reason to spend a bunch investing in DCFC, because they see it happening anyway. Current drivers are frustrated that it's not all in place in 2022, of course, but the pace is well ahead of the EV sales market share for it, IMO. Most vehicle sales will remain ICE/hybrid for probably another decade as this gradually ramps up.

Large-732-ElectrifyAmericaAnnouncesitsBoostPlantoMorethanDoubleitsCurrentEVChargingNetworkbyEn...png
Maybe we agree after all. Good points.

But remove government's wasteful subsidies and you have car manufacturers motivated to step in and solve the problem. I do agree there will be pain before there is a comprehensive solution, but that is how markets normally work. When there is a need, business step up to fill it.

Right now, while there are gaps, but the infrastructure isn't critical. I can still get where I need to go in my MME. It may implode this year, but that would be growing pains if not for government interference in the free market.
 

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Right now, while there are gaps, but the infrastructure isn't critical. I can still get where I need to go in my MME.
That's highly dependent on where you live in the United States.

I consider current government efforts equivalent to the effort for electrification of rural America.
 

mkhuffman

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That's highly dependent on where you live in the United States.

I consider current government efforts equivalent to the effort for electrification of rural America.
But what you consider to be true isn't reality. If they only used my money to build chargers in rural and gap areas, I might be OK with that. But that isn't all they are doing with my earnings.
 

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Without massive investments in charging, you're going to see the EV bubble pop once people get theirs cars and haven't done a lick of research about how to charge them.

Where are they going to turn back to? Their dealers.

The automakers have a very vested interest in making sure there is a robust charging infrastructure.... which we do not have in many areas of the country.

This doesn't apply to everyone. As long as you live in a home (or apt that luckily lets you plug in), charging is really not an issue for a lot of people. The average commute is like 20 miles in America? Outside of weekends, 5/7 days charging for a lot of folks is not a problem.

I've never used a DCFC ever still with the MME and when I had the Bolt and I'd happily trade my 250 kWh of credit for $125 of Ford Rewards points honestly.

Like others have said, DCFC is actually worst for the battery and if you don't take long trips (we got an ICE for that), the EA credits are sorta useless. Plenty of people have survived the EV bubble without charging outside the home.

Not everyone needs to DCFC and I am on L1 charging as well. WFH and even less commuting as well.
 

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But what you consider to be true isn't reality. If they only used my money to build chargers in rural and gap areas, I might be OK with that. But that isn't all they are doing with my earnings.
Yeah, I don't have kids, so why should I have to pay for schools?

(hint: because it's not all about me personally.)
 

mkhuffman

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Yeah, I don't have kids, so why should I have to pay for schools?

(hint: because it's not all about me personally.)
Not everyone can afford to pay for stuff that benefits rich people. And if you can, and want to, great. But it shouldn't be forced on everyone.
 
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I disagree that would make them go bankrupt. Tesla has not needed ICE vehicles to turn a profit and burned through the tax rebate subsidies and is making a profit, and so there is no reason others can't.

Tesla actually almost filed for bankrupcy and Musk had to mortgage his home I think, and all sorts of stuff to try to keep it afloat. I'm guessing if could have gone either way, but there are a lot of stories on this actually:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/elon-musk-tesla-once-got-near-bankruptcy/index.html


Looking at all those "has been" EV makers, I'd say it's more than likely most will go under and Tesla is the exception and lucky as well (give Musk credit for making it).
 

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Tesla actually almost filed for bankrupcy and Musk had to mortgage his home I think, and all sorts of stuff to try to keep it afloat. I'm guessing if could have gone either way, but there are a lot of stories on this actually:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/elon-musk-tesla-once-got-near-bankruptcy/index.html
Yes, but most of those stories are in the past and more to do with starting an auto company than it being BEV exclusive. VW has enough assets (factories, etc) that it can not tank as quickly as banks are more inclined to give loans, etc...

VW has a lot of debt, but most of that is actually from their financing department and so is a good thing as long is their customers don't default...
 

mkhuffman

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Yes, but most of those stories are in the past and more to do with starting an auto company than it being BEV exclusive. VW has enough assets (factories, etc) that it can not tank as quickly as banks are more inclined to give loans, etc...

VW has a lot of debt, but most of that is actually from their financing department and so is a good thing as long is their customers don't default...
But my point is that if VW stops making ICE vehicles, and people don't want to buy BEVs because they have finally figured out you cannot travel with them, VW will not be able to sustain their business. And that means they will go bankrupt. Or their business will shrink so much their entire BOD will be fired and all the executives will be living on the street. Might make a few leftists happy. ;-)

I am not saying they will tank tomorrow, but if they cannot sell cars, they don't have a business, right? Meanwhile, GM is still cranking out Escalades that burn one gallon of gas every 17 miles. And people are buying them because they can get gas and drive in comfort. I might be one of those people...

So VW and other car companies are significantly motivated to provide the means for people to use their products. They are not going to just let their products fail. They have lots of resources to invest into infrastructure, and if the government would just get out of the way, they will do it.

 

 
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