How long before Tesla will have to change?

[ARK]

It amazes me that Tesla has sold… what? 150,000 MYs so far? Ford could really eat into that market if it could produce more MMEs. I wonder how much longer until production gets back on schedule.

To be fair though, Tesla also appears to be somewhat supply limited with the Model Y. It would be interesting to see where both vehicles would land if Ford and Tesla were in a position to make an unlimited amount of their vehicles to meet demand.

I think the Model Y would have a large edge at least initially because Teslas in general are much better known than Ford's Mach-E.

Also, I'm not sure this is a competition I'd want Ford to win from my own purely selfish perspective - I believe I have the only MME in my neighborhood, whereas there are numerous Model Ys. This suits me just fine!

Sponsored

 

[ARK]

Probably much more than that, and now Shanghai is starting to crank out Ys for Europe and China.

So far Tesla has producted 824,769 M3s and MYs from Q1 2020 when the Y came out. They don't split it out but Musk did say the Y is selling more in the US than the 3 now.

The real number could be something like 60% MYs over M3s, who knows, but even if we take 50% of that # that's still 412,000 MYs since Q1 2020.

With a really conservative 30% # that's about 250,000

Anecdotally, I've been seeing far more new Model Ys with paper plates in the past year in Southern California than Model 3s, like 4 new Model Ys for every new Model 3 I see. I wouldn't be surprised if the ratio was this lopsided.

Maybe it will even out more in a couple of years, but I bet with pent up demand for a more affordable Tesla SUV and with small crossovers being so much more popular than sedans in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised if this continues for a while.

 

[trutolife27]

To be fair though, Tesla also appears to be somewhat supply limited with the Model Y. It would be interesting to see where both vehicles would land if Ford and Tesla were in a position to make an unlimited amount of their vehicles to meet demand.

I think the Model Y would have a large edge at least initially because Teslas in general are much better known than Ford's Mach-E.

Also, I'm not sure this is a competition I'd want Ford to win from my own purely selfish perspective - I believe I have the only MME in my neighborhood, whereas there are numerous Model Ys. This suits me just fine!

they are supply-limited like everyone else. That is why Tesla is just hoping for the same sales numbers as last year. The massive price increase on tesla across the board was needed to cover the increased cost of supplies. Really a few people on youtube that break down sales the best they can are saying the model y is outselling the Model 3 at a rate of 70% to 30%.

As far as mileage. You have people doing city driving in the mache rear-wheel drive hitting over 400 miles of range. All Bev do better with great temps and slower driving.

Again 58,000 for a model y long-range with paint upgrade the white interior and the better wheels. While the same awd ext mache is only 53,000. So 5,000 more plus 2.49% vs .9% interest rate, plus the 7,500 tax credit. that's about 15,000 more for the model y. You get get a fully load mache gt comparing the cost now.

Big difference and even a few of your big BEV YouTubers have been saying the mache now is coming in at a big advantage.

 

[snikt]

Anecdotally, I've been seeing far more new Model Ys with paper plates in the past year in Southern California than Model 3s, like 4 new Model Ys for every new Model 3 I see. I wouldn't be surprised if the ratio was this lopsided.

Maybe it will even out more in a couple of years, but I bet with pent up demand for a more affordable Tesla SUV and with small crossovers being so much more popular than sedans in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised if this continues for a while.

they are supply-limited like everyone else. That is why Tesla is just hoping for the same sales numbers as last year. The massive price increase on tesla across the board was been needs to cover the increased cost of supplies. Really a few people on youtube that break down sales the best they can are saying the model y is outselling the Model 3 at a rate of 70% to 30%.

As far as mileage. You have people doing city driving in the mache rear-wheel drive hitting over 400 miles of range. All Bev do better with great temps and slower driving.

Again 58,000 for a model y long-range with paint upgrade the white interior and the better wheels. While the same awd ext mache is only 53,000. So 5,000 more plus 2.49% vs .9% interest rate, plus the 7,500 tax credit. that's about 15,000 more for the model y. You get get a fully load mache gt comparing the cost now.

Big difference and even a few of your big BEV YouTubers have been saying the mache now is coming in at a big advantage.

Where are you seeing $53,000 for an AWD Ext Range MME? It's at least $55,300 with no options. The $7500 tax rebate in it's current form will be a very fleeting thing, as Ford cranks out more MMEs and F150 EVs starting next year that will be gone most likely in 2022.

Also if some new EV tax plan does pass, it will include Tesla again so prices will be $7500-10000 lower (though they are likely to increase prices also, but probably not by that margin)

 

[trutolife27]

Where are you seeing $53,000 for an AWD Ext Range MME? It's at least $55,300 with no options. The $7500 tax rebate in it's current form will be a very fleeting thing, as Ford cranks out more MMEs and F150 EVs starting next year that will be gone most likely in 2022.

Also if some new EV tax plan does pass, it will include Tesla again so prices will be $7500-10000 lower (though they are likely to increase prices also, but probably not by that margin)

where am I seeing 53,000. Well, let's start. 55,100 is the window sticker for my AWD ext range with red paint. Then you know like we talked many times on here the ease of the x plan and also the 1,100 in incentives. makes it 53,000. and that is AWD EXT with red paint.

Now ford has sold half of their tax rebate yet. so right now people are still getting it. Gone is not right here and now fellow. The ex-tax plan is not coming to that boat as done sailed And we are talking the hear and now. So again when you add that all up with the interest rates. It's right at the 15,000 price difference. The areas that have the 2,500 incentives and if they are lucky enough to get the A-plan well it's over 17,500 cheaper. yes, that's prices going on right now.

Shoot that much price difference you could have a mache and a ford maverick?? compared to the model y long-range almost.

 

[theo1000]

All these games have been played before. You just have to look at the long history of car manufacturing you will see that these sorts of 4th manufacturer games continue until the market gets into a situation where the big 3 get into a serious price war with the 4th wheel. When this happen, the 4th wheel just get absolutely ground into the pavement. The AMC/Packard/Nash/Hudson battle went on for decades with the 4th manufacturer coming back weaker and weaker each time, till they flat out ran out of money.

If TSLA is smart they would get out of car manufacturing completely, outsource it to some one like Magna and focus just on the tech and selling it to third parties. TSLA is held together with ductape and twine (literally sometimes) by Elon. AMC was held together by Dick Teague, true american treasure. Elon is not going to last forever and as the extinction of AMC shows neither did Dick Teague.

 

[trutolife27]

You understand the number of vehicles not sold this year because of the chip shortage right? second, that's Cali. That would be like looking at truck sales to tesla sales in texas lol. The world is a lot bigger than Cali. In fact, 60% to 70% of all tesa sales are in Cali. SO what's the point.

well, there is a county in Texas that buys 2,000 f-series trucks a year and no tesla. Wow, ford is killing them. Play your smoke and mirror games somewhere else crypt keeper of tesla.

 

[MachTee]

Seems like an odd comparison for a car with a 60 kWh pack to be compared to one with 88 kWh?

My wife as a 2021 Model 3 Performance, I have a 2020 Model Y Long Range. I'm surprised how good the range is on her M3P. We take the same drive every month (sometimes twice) so I have a decent set of data in different weather conditions. My Y with the 19" wheels does the drive with 4.17 miles/kWh. My Y with aftermarket 20" wheels does it with 3.70 miles/kWh. The 3 Performance does it with 3.85 miles/kWh. I wasn't expecting it to be around 3.85. I was expecting it to be around 3.50 with the 20" Uberturbines. I have a set of 19" Tsportline TST that I'll get some numbers with once the colder weather approaches.

I was comparing my LR dual motor Model 3 (~75kWh battery pack, 310 miles) to my SR AWD MME (68kWh usable battery pack, 211 miles). The last charge I had on the TM3, from 85% down to 45%, it went 95 miles showing 260Wh/mile which does not add up. In comparison, I'm regularly getting 100 miles from 40% of the charge in my MME, at 3.7miles/kWh. 3.7*68=251. I know I'd have to actually drive it from 100-0 to know for sure, but at least the numbers add up.

 

[timbop]

How many model Y's or Mach E's this year or next is a tactical issue. The big problem for Tesla is a strategic one. As @RonTCat pointed out they will be able to build a couple million cars with the plants they will have by next year. That is a small fraction of cars that are built and sold, and when the BEV's occupy a significant chunk of the overall market how will Tesla get a bigger piece of the pie? Maybe it doesn't matter to them and they're happy at that level. If they expect to be so profitable "one day" that they can keep building/buying a plant every year I don't see that as successful. Their valuation is based on them being the biggest manufacturer in the world which isn't going to happen in piecemeal fashion, nor will the wall street cash cow keep giving at the rate that plan requires.

 

[Billyk24]

It amazes me that Tesla has sold… what? 150,000 MYs so far? Ford could really eat into that market if it could produce more MMEs. I wonder how much longer until production gets back on schedule.

MME is also limited by the 50,000 battery units.

 

[trutolife27]

 

[Billyk24]

STill in beta mode after 4+ years., Not close to FSD.

 

[snikt]

I think the scariest part of this data is the crappy Nissan Leaf is even almost on par with Mach-E sales


Here are the top 10 best-selling EVs in the US from January to April 2021, according to registration data:

1. Tesla Model Y: 53,102
2. Tesla Model 3: 35,468
3. Chevrolet Bolt EV: 13,611
4. Ford Mustang Mach-E: 6,104
5. Nissan Leaf: 5,023
6. Audi e-tron: 4,321
7. Porsche Taycan: 3,002
8. Hyundai Kona: 2,192
9. Tesla Model X: 1,730
10. Tesla Model S: 1,633

 

[Scarpia]

I think the scariest part of this data is the crappy Nissan Leaf is even almost on par with Mach-E sales

You can't be serious. The Mach-E supply is severely constrained; any that weren't customer orders are selling within a day or two of hitting the dealerships, most apparently with dealer markup. There is no equivalency with Leaf sales whatsoever.

Sponsored