How long before Tesla will have to change?

[blue92lx]

I'm just sitting around watching reviews of new EVs coming out and I just don't know how Tesla will keep it's market share with all of these awesome EVs coming out. Yes it'll take a while for Tesla to start to lose on a significant level, especially with the new vehicles not out yet combined with parts shortages across the board, but I just cannot imagine even looking at a Tesla anymore (even though for me that thought has been long gone for at least a year).

Ioniq 5 has some really awesome ideas to it, growing up in the 80s I love the future retro look. The recliner seats with extendable leg supports. It charges at 800v. It looks small but actually has a lot of storage space in the cabin. Fully adjustable rear seats with a crazy amount of room in the back to sit. One thing that makes sense is removing the center console (at least on bottom) and having a full open area to put your feet. Entire center console moves front and back.

Nissan Ariya has a nice exterior design, the interior is actually an interesting mix of the Tesla dash with somewhat hidden AC vents, really nice dual screen setup, same as the ioniq 5 a full flat front area for your feet to stretch out and a moveable center console. More than enough storage space as well and rear seat area. Seems to have really nice interior quality (at least in videos so far). I also really like the integrated touch controls of the AC in the faux wood. It reminds me of the touch controls on my Fusion Titanium that I really like. It's really smooth and sleek, especially on the Ariya. I feel like Nissan is already taking the Tesla design and making it way better, way nicer. This is what Tesla needs to start looking at, because Nissan is showing a better way for Tesla to do their own design.

Volvo recharge xc40. I mean I don't even need to start talking about the level of quality of a Volvo to a Tesla. The difference is absurd.

VW ID.4 which is more of a get around town vehicle in comparison from the reviews Ive seen, but still taking market share. Ive seen one in person and it looks good, just not a performance oriented vehicle and based primarily around a traditional driving experience and not a future tech EV.

Obviously Mustang Mach E which we all know and love here, so I don't think I need to talk about the features. I think the Mach E is the only one in the segment with equal 0-60 to all of the Model Y models.

All of these vehicles are in the same price range, all CUV size except the Model Y which is really a full SUV size (at least from the rear exterior with the large flaired rear fenders).

All have better styling exterior and interior wise. This is subjective of course, but how many more Tesla's with the same exact design can you really look at before you're over it? I can literally count 10-15 Tesla's on my Starbucks route, all look exactly the same no matter what year or model they are.

How long can Tesla be the "apple" of EVs that literally never changes anything about how it looks, functions, lower quality of construction, etc., When all of the big players are coming out which will be better put together, better ideas, different designs to choose from, etc. It's now going to be Tesla vs the world and you just can't compete when its you versus everyone else.

They're coming for that Tesla market and if Tesla doesn't make a single change I just wonder how much interest people will keep in it once we start seeing all of these other vehicles on the road next to the Teslas at stop lights.

I've said it before and the Tesla charging network won't be an excuse forever, especially with all of these new vehicles using a unified network. Also in the EU Tesla's don't have their charging network there either since it's standardized.

Anyway, just kind of bored tonight and was thinking about all of that while watching these videos of what's coming out in the next year.

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[physib]

How long can Tesla be the "apple" of EVs

Looking at Apple, pretty long apparently

 

[Tyldum]

Looking at Apple, pretty long apparently

Cool beats most things. Their PR is great. And they mimic Apple, all the way down to the proprietary charging cable...
Norwegian statistics: https://elbilstatistikk.no/
Tesla leads, but the others aren't far behind anymore. Note the MME has only started deliveries mid May.

 

[blue92lx]

Cool beats most things. Their PR is great. And they mimic Apple, all the way down to the proprietary charging cable...
Norwegian statistics: https://elbilstatistikk.no/
Tesla leads, but the others aren't far behind anymore. Note the MME has only started deliveries mid May.

Right but that's the thing. Only about half of these cars are out now, or just being released. The others aren't even for sale yet and coming out soon. So when sales can be full force without huge parts restrictions, etc. What will Tesla do? Tesla's success is based on the fact that they've essentially had carte blanche in this segment, that's coming to a very quick end. All of these cars are going to make it more and more obvious the quality in Tesla isn't there.

Tesla is going to end up being this lightweight go kart EV and maybe they'll start hyping that more and more. It won't be as nice inside, it won't be as quiet, it'll have that Tesla punch in the face with their speed and that's it. And some people want that, but their segment is going to minimize as one after another manufacturer comes out with a better built EV.

And let's face it, autopilot isn't even close to a reason to buy a Tesla. $10k for a beta software with no end date? And how many other manufacturers like Ford are doing their own for a small fraction of the price?

 

[timbop]

Fundamentally it will come down to a numbers game. By next year sometime Tesla will have 4 factories and they will be going up against companies like Ford that have over 50. If the OEM's do in fact jump on the EV bandwagon in earnest then Tesla's market share will shrink quite a bit. With that said, I don't know that it will matter to them, because they will still be selling a few million BEV's a year. Presumably at that volume they will make a profit from selling cars instead of carbon credits.

 

[blue92lx]

Fundamentally it will come down to a numbers game. By next year sometime Tesla will have 4 factories and they will be going up against companies like Ford that have over 50. If the OEM's do in fact jump on the EV bandwagon in earnest then Tesla's market share will shrink quite a bit. With that said, I don't know that it will matter to them, because they will still be selling a few million BEV's a year. Presumably at that volume they will make a profit from selling cars instead of carbon credits.

It makes me wonder how much Tesla relies on the current income of their vehicle sales. If other manufacturers take a large bite out of that what will Tesla do to try and recapture it?

Multiple manufacturers are dedicated to full EV by 2030. Tesla's reign is coming to a swift close and it'll be interesting to see how things change for them.

I appreciate that they've essentially put EVs on the map, making them a viable way of transportation, but you can't just take that and never make a better product.

 

[snikt]

I dunno I looked around extensively and even all of the new stuff coming out in 2022 and for me there's still nothing that compares. I think the M3, MY and MME are really in a league of their own at the moment when it comes to efficiency, power, range, etc.. especially in the same price range.

Ford's problem at the moment is they can't make enough of them, 50K for an entire year turned to be a massive underestimation for them. Tesla made more M3s and MYs than all 2021 MME production in just 3-4 weeks.

 

[trutolife27]

I dunno I looked around extensively and even all of the new stuff coming out in 2022 and for me there's still nothing that compares. I think the M3, MY and MME are really in a league of their own at the moment when it comes to efficiency, power, range, etc.. especially in the same price range.

Ford's problem at the moment is they can't make enough of them, 50K for an entire year turned to be a massive underestimation for them. Tesla made more M3s and MYs than all 2021 MME production in just 3-4 weeks.

Few points on your comments. With the Ioniq 5, kia, ID4, lucid air, BMW, new Audi and so on. You're going to have about 50 BEV out there compared to 3 years ago when there was not even 10.

2023-2024 will add another 25 to the market. and by 2025 there will be over 100.

As far as a league of their own. Nothing right now they are doing or have is a league of their own. Just like Elon said himself he thought they had a 10-year lead back in 2018 but not that has gone away. Charging? BEV that car charge as fast or faster than tesla. Infostructure is tesla one big advantage here in North America. That has gone away in the euro market with the announced sharing coming. With the massive amount of fast chargers coming in the next 3 years that also will go away. The tech is there and the field is level. Now with the Stellanis merger and the end of 30% of tesla carbon credits. Things will be rolling fast the next 3 years.


The comment is silly to compare the launch of the mache to the model y or 3. It's fords first true BEV. So it would be more comparable to Tesla first. How many did they make that year? Also, that launch didn't have one of history's worst pandemics going on.

Yes it is problematic they can't make more right now but that is the case at hand with what is going on. Demand for the mache is one hundred times fold greater. Could ford sell 200,000 mache the first year? might be a push there but 100,000 yes no problem.

The Ford lighting has over 150,000 reservations right now, demand is crazy high.
The cyber truck and getting berlin built are big deals right now for tesla.
You are going to hear ford lighting vs cyber truck all year next year.
You're going to see 30 BEV car aka crossovers all within the same specs and price range next year.

The leads are gone. The big companies are at the table now. Is there enough for tesla to keep going? YES, still only 3% bev right now. Will tesla ever sale 5 million a year. Time will tell.

 

[Jeffvisor]

I think Tesla marketshare will decline but their sales will continue to grow each year just due to the adoption of more EV's and the overall growth of the EV pie.

 

[Ride_the_lightning]

I just sold my 4 month old Tesla Model 3 and ordered a Mach E. Went through a car wash and the paint started peeling off. I loved driving the model 3, but Tesla has got to learn to properly manufacture cars. I know the Mach E has its share of problems being a new car. When it comes down to it this is my logic:

Tesla primarily considers themselves a great software company, and is still learning how to actually build cars.

Ford is primarily a company that knows how to build cars, but is still learning how to develop great software.

One of those 2 can be improved with OTA updates. The other causes paint to peel off on a brand new car simply from getting a car wash.

 

[timbop]

I dunno I looked around extensively and even all of the new stuff coming out in 2022 and for me there's still nothing that compares. I think the M3, MY and MME are really in a league of their own at the moment when it comes to efficiency, power, range, etc.. especially in the same price range.

Ford's problem at the moment is they can't make enough of them, 50K for an entire year turned to be a massive underestimation for them. Tesla made more M3s and MYs than all 2021 MME production in just 3-4 weeks.

I think the ioniq 5&6 will sell very well - depending on how serious hyundai is about making enough of them. Ford obviously underestimated the demand for the Mach E, but I suspect that they will address that in 2022. Agree that the ID.4 is in a different class, but I am not sure it matters since they'll still sell plenty of them. I'm not sure how well the Bolt EUV will do and as usual GM is targeting the higher luxury price category so they won't be a threat for a while as the lyriq and hummer will sell in modest quantities. Stellantis' US brands are a joke in the EV space but they will certainly sell plenty of european brands there, and VW group absolutely has a strong foothold in europe also. In china the plethora of chinese manufacturers will own the market there and will likely gain a strong foothold in europe during this decade.

Based on the events of the last several decades I honestly think that china will absolutely dominate the EV space beyond 2030, to the point that ALL of the traditional manufacturers will be scrambling for market share.

 

[Pushrods&Capacitors]

I'm just sitting around watching reviews of new EVs coming out and I just don't know how Tesla will keep it's market share with all of these awesome EVs coming out. Yes it'll take a while for Tesla to start to lose on a significant level, especially with the new vehicles not out yet combined with parts shortages across the board, but I just cannot imagine even looking at a Tesla anymore (even though for me that thought has been long gone for at least a year).

Ioniq 5 has some really awesome ideas to it, growing up in the 80s I love the future retro look. The recliner seats with extendable leg supports. It charges at 800v. It looks small but actually has a lot of storage space in the cabin. Fully adjustable rear seats with a crazy amount of room in the back to sit. One thing that makes sense is removing the center console (at least on bottom) and having a full open area to put your feet. Entire center console moves front and back.

Nissan Ariya has a nice exterior design, the interior is actually an interesting mix of the Tesla dash with somewhat hidden AC vents, really nice dual screen setup, same as the ioniq 5 a full flat front area for your feet to stretch out and a moveable center console. More than enough storage space as well and rear seat area. Seems to have really nice interior quality (at least in videos so far). I also really like the integrated touch controls of the AC in the faux wood. It reminds me of the touch controls on my Fusion Titanium that I really like. It's really smooth and sleek, especially on the Ariya. I feel like Nissan is already taking the Tesla design and making it way better, way nicer. This is what Tesla needs to start looking at, because Nissan is showing a better way for Tesla to do their own design.

Volvo recharge xc40. I mean I don't even need to start talking about the level of quality of a Volvo to a Tesla. The difference is absurd.

VW ID.4 which is more of a get around town vehicle in comparison from the reviews Ive seen, but still taking market share. Ive seen one in person and it looks good, just not a performance oriented vehicle and based primarily around a traditional driving experience and not a future tech EV.

Obviously Mustang Mach E which we all know and love here, so I don't think I need to talk about the features. I think the Mach E is the only one in the segment with equal 0-60 to all of the Model Y models.

All of these vehicles are in the same price range, all CUV size except the Model Y which is really a full SUV size (at least from the rear exterior with the large flaired rear fenders).

All have better styling exterior and interior wise. This is subjective of course, but how many more Tesla's with the same exact design can you really look at before you're over it? I can literally count 10-15 Tesla's on my Starbucks route, all look exactly the same no matter what year or model they are.

How long can Tesla be the "apple" of EVs that literally never changes anything about how it looks, functions, lower quality of construction, etc., When all of the big players are coming out which will be better put together, better ideas, different designs to choose from, etc. It's now going to be Tesla vs the world and you just can't compete when its you versus everyone else.

They're coming for that Tesla market and if Tesla doesn't make a single change I just wonder how much interest people will keep in it once we start seeing all of these other vehicles on the road next to the Teslas at stop lights.

I've said it before and the Tesla charging network won't be an excuse forever, especially with all of these new vehicles using a unified network. Also in the EU Tesla's don't have their charging network there either since it's standardized.

Anyway, just kind of bored tonight and was thinking about all of that while watching these videos of what's coming out in the next year.

Yep, Tesla is about to go through some things as the avalanche of EVs from all over comes down the mountain. They started out as innovators but the competition is catching and in some areas passing them already. I know this has been covered before but here are just a few that stick out to me:

1. A decade had gone by since the S hit the road and production quality is still abysmal. Their failure to embrace Kaizen/Continuous Improvement has really affected their manufacturing processes. That’s the Elon influence of crapping on anything the legacy automakers do, even Toyota. Building cars in the parking lot under tents to meet quotas was the ultimate middle finger to the Quality Team at Tesla.
2. The “minimalist” interior is merely a cost and weight savings exercise taken to the extreme. Yes, you can save a good bit of $$$ and 100-200 pounds doing it, but, how many buyers do you lose? Not many, when the only alternatives are Bolts and Leafs, but when Audi, BMW, Kia, Hyundai, Volvo, Ford et al. come at you with real interiors with gauges and buttons that novelty won’t play any more.
3. Range. Yes, Tesla’s big advantage (Superchargers notwithstanding), or so many thought. Tesla has played fast and loose with their EPA ratings and now that fact is being exposed to a greater degree than ever. The Edmunds EV range test was very damning and Tesla’s response about a buffer bordered on non-sense. Their cars just don’t meet EPA numbers in controlled testing. As more legacy makers introduce EVs that beat the EPA numbers, Tesla will have to re-rate or improve.
4. The no dealership model. Nice in theory. However, one of a dealership’s functions is to advocate for their customer in situations where the maker isn’t cooperating. When there is no dealer you are at the mercy of the maker. Many Tesla owners have found this out the hard way with warranty denials, parts shortages and general inability to receive timely service/fixes. Are all dealers great advocates? Of course not, but a choice is better than none.
5. Diminishing Carbon Credits. Bigger deal than many realize. They have relied greatly on the credits until very recently and will struggle to show profits as they totally disappear. When even Dodge announces an EV muscle car and EV Ram truck coming for ‘24, you are in serious trouble.

That is my sorta Top 5.

 

[Carsinmyblood]

Musk's first EV was the roadster and it was priced at approx. $85K in 2021 dollars. The newest version will be $200k for starters. I think that's a mistake. Good for headlines, bad for business.

They claim that 'only' 1,000 founder's editions at $250,000 will be made.

Are they nuts?

 

[Carsinmyblood]

5. Diminishing Carbon Credits. Bigger deal than many realize. They have relied greatly on the credits until very recently and will struggle to show profits as they totally disappear. When even Dodge announces an EV muscle car and EV Ram truck coming for ‘24, you are in serious trouble.

That is my sorta Top 5.

You pretty much nailed it. I think you should be writing for one of the big 3 magazines. I hope one of their writers is reading this.

 

[Carsinmyblood]

From 1015: Bob Lutz himself
https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/

From 2019:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-is-dying-and-this-is-how-it-will-end/

2020:
https://fortune.com/2020/08/29/tesla-business-model-cars-stock-prediction-electric-cars-evs/

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