How long before Tesla will have to change?

[RonTCat]

Tesla fans right now are like the old story of the frog in the cooking pot. Everything is great, the water is just getting a little warmer. Until you're dead.

Elon knows he is in the pot. Does he know how to get out? I think so. He's smart. But it will be a survival move, not a thrive move. Getting to 5 million a year will be very difficult, even by 2035. Tesla has factory capacity to make ~800,000 units a year. They will bring the German factory online, and double that. It's tough sledding to go beyond this volume with the new entries coming into the game. The supply side is not there, and the demand side will start drying up. Tesla can't grow its way to profitability in this environment. They will have to find a way to make money at 1.5 million units a year, or they will be the next Blackberry, not Apple. It's why you see them cutting corners and cost at every opportunity.

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[blue92lx]

And BTW I'll be the first to admit they're ahead on technology, there are good things about Tesla's, but not good enough when you have every other manufacturer competing now and they're moving things ahead on their end. Quality aside (since this is not even on the table to compare build quality)

 

[Pushrods&Capacitors]

I think Tesla has made some very desirable products and their future is at this point highly secure. Their market share will for sure decrease because they haven’t had much competition but I think their sales will continue to boom as the EV market pie gets much larger.

I don’t think Tesla is helpless to improve things like build quality, paint, etc. I think they just haven’t had much of an incentive to do so because they can’t make their vehicles fast enough - they are having absolutely no problem in moving them.

But just as the Mach-E only exists in 2021 pretty much because of what Tesla has shown is possible with EVs over the last decade, once other automakers start introducing serious EVs, I think Tesla will markedly improve on the things they are currently lacking on. The Mach-E is a start, the E-Tron, Taycan, ID.4 are some others.

Basically, things like quality control cost money and make the average item produced, whether it is a car or something else, more expensive to the manufacturer. Why should they do it so long as there are three people happy to overlook those flaws for every buyer who wants out because of them. With more competition and more choices for consumers, that will for sure start to change.

This proves my point about not following a Continuous Improvement quality method. Actually, proper quality processes cost less than trying to inspect quality in after the fact. And reworking large batches of product that fail quality standards costs more too. Not to
mention the scrap generated by bad processes. The Japanese learned this 40-50 years ago. So has everyone else. Except Tesla.

 

[trutolife27]

Yeah but, which Tesla is cool? They all look the same and they all look the same as they have since the beginning. Lol. In a more serious note though, how cool will they look when people also like 'new'. And along with new comes more current designs, more designs to choose from which suits multiple buyers, and big manufacturers also know they have to refresh their vehicles every few years because people like new.

I'm very curious how cool Tesla's will be when you see one and it's like ok so there's a Tesla, could be 5 years old, might be new. also its a car but looks like the SUV and Crossover. Oh look at the nice Volvo XC40 next to it, or Nissan Ariya, or ioniq 5, and then you look back and it's like oh and the Tesla next it.

Oh and btw the new car they're developing? Literally the same exact design they have now and it's just smaller.

Even on a brand new car they couldn't be bothered to make a new design, gtfo of here with that BS. It would've been the perfect time for them to introduce a new style that they could have piggy backed their other models off of, but no they went with the same old 8 year old design or however old it is now. I honestly can't be bothered to even take a minute to research their cars.

yep cost cost cost. The cost for total R%D is crazy. model y is 75% model 3. model x and s is a really small face lift. All you big auto makers know this. Back in the day, they could ride a model year for 5 to 10 years with small refreshes. Now the market is so cutthroat and changing like phones.

everyone wants the next best thing the next year. Nothing wrong with last year's phones but people turn them in. Cars are going the same way.

 

[Carsinmyblood]

GM is SHOOTING for one million EVs on the road by 2025. Tesla will be up to about 5 - 8 million by then. And what happens when the Tesla "cheapie" (M2) hits the market? What people do not seem to grasp is, that legacy factories are a liability -- an EV isn't just an ICE car with batteries and an electric motor. And, how much work is involved in sorting the inadequate chargers all the others are using? Ford & VW have admitted their only competition is Tesla. (As has Audi and Mercedes, BTW). The Model 3 is now the 16th best selling car -- and that's of ALL cars -- in the world.

This is simple: if GM makes the absolutely best selling EV on the planet... and they can only make a million by 2025 (their goal)... who cares?

You're missing Bob Lutz's point. GM can make a million EV cars below cost because they make everything else at a profit. There's power in diversification.

Ford makes a million F-150's a year alone and each one shows a profit. Tesla will make the $35K EV car at a loss, making a million of those makes you broke.

There's a rule in the boardroom: You can't cut your way to profitability.

 

[ARK]

yep cost cost cost. The cost for total R%D is crazy. model y is 75% model 3. model x and s is a really small face lift. All you big auto makers know this. Back in the day, they could ride a model year for 5 to 10 years with small refreshes. Now the market is so cutthroat and changing like phones.

everyone wants the next best thing the next year. Nothing wrong with last year's phones but people turn them in. Cars are going the same way.

Small facelift for the S and X is right. If this was any other automaker, the S and X changes would count as a pretty weak mid-cycle refresh, let alone a whole new generation.

Maybe that’s why the yoke went in, high impact in getting people to talk about the S and X again, even if on balance it’s probably a pretty negative change for most buyers. Distracts from the lack of significant substantive changes 9 years after the Model S first went on sale.

 

[trutolife27]

Small facelift for the S and X is right. If this was any other automaker, the S and X changes would count as a pretty weak mid-cycle refresh, let alone a whole new generation.

Maybe that’s why the yoke went in, high impact in getting people to talk about the S and X again, even if on balance it’s probably a pretty negative change for most buyers. Distracts from the lack of significant substantive changes 9 years after the Model S first went on sale.

the one selling point is the 0 to 60 in 2. whatever seconds. that is what they push on the plaid. and that is the only upgrade you get for what 45,000. other car brands would get killed for that. 45,000 and nothing else different.

 

[Pushrods&Capacitors]

the one selling point is the 0 to 60 in 2. whatever seconds. that is what they push on the plaid. and that is the only upgrade you get for what 45,000. other car brands would get killed for that. 45,000 and nothing else different.

I think you forgot about the Knight Rider yoke style steering wheel. That’s worth $25k itself, right? ? Also, I believe it received some major battery enhancements to allow more extended tracking, but I don’t know any specifics.

 

[ARK]

I think you forgot about the Knight Rider yoke style steering wheel. That’s worth $25k itself, right? ? Also, I believe it received some major battery enhancements to allow more extended tracking, but I don’t know any specifics.

Even the normal non-plaid models (the Model S Long Range and Model X Long Range) got the yoke, which is why it so confounding to people that the non-sports models would get such an aggressively sports steering (non) wheel.

 

[AllenXS]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-form-death-cross-portending-further-declines

An indicator investors are nervous about the future. Tesla's profitably comes from selling credits. More companies making their own then no credits being sold. No more profit. That's the bigger threat than straight out competition.

 

[MG101]

Tesla's profitably comes from selling credits. More companies making their own then no credits being sold. No more profit.

Yup

I wouldn't hitch my wagon to that $25k Tesla either. Remember the $35k M3? That was fun while it lasted.

 

[JoeDimwit]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-form-death-cross-portending-further-declines

An indicator investors are nervous about the future. Tesla's profitably comes from selling credits. More companies making their own then no credits being sold. No more profit. That's the bigger threat than straight out competition.

Until the last ICE vehicle is sold, there will be a market for carbon credits.

 

[JoeDimwit]

Major thing that will keep Tesla in the game… buying a Tesla is “cool”.

Then again, the Mach E is pretty fucking cool, too. Teslas are now basically anonymous.

Flashy isn’t what made Tesla “cool”, famous people buying them is what made Tesla “cool”. Once famous people move on to whatever they move on to, that cool factor is gone. Until now, Tesla was the only real option for the wealthy virtue signalers, but now the options are opening up. I really feel like the Taycan is going to be that next “cool car” here in the US. Shoddy build quality is fine when it’s the only game in town, but when you have money, and there are options, you don’t go with the crappily built option. You leave that for the poor people.

 

[Billyk24]

Yup

I wouldn't hitch my wagon to that $25k Tesla either. Remember the $35k M3? That was fun while it lasted.

Essentially the 35K Model 3 was a PR move. The more expensive versions were built first regardless of when one ordered. The CEO even admitted he could not make a profit on this cheap version. The 35K was not listed on their website and yours truly was told you had to make a telephone call for such an order! I never did make that phone call. Based upon the Model 3 experience, this 25k Tesla auto is going to just be a PR piece with limited vehicles for sale.

 

[timbop]

Until the last ICE vehicle is sold, there will be a market for carbon credits.

Not really - FCA had to buy a ton of them because they didn't make (enough) BEVs of their own to get below the CO2 threshold. Since merging with PSA they won't need to buy as many credits, and if they actually follow through on their announcements the subbrands will all have enough EVs of their own to meet the requirements.

Essentially the 35K Model 3 was a PR move. The more expensive versions were built first regardless of when one ordered. The CEO even admitted he could not make a profit on this cheap version. The 35K was not listed on their website and yours truly was told you had to make a telephone call for such an order! I never did make that phone call. Based upon the Model 3 experience, this 25k Tesla auto is going to just be a PR piece with limited vehicles for sale.

100% agree - the $25k M2 is just more lies and exaggerations from technojerk. MAYBE by 2030 they will have a cheaper model than the M3, but by then inflation will make that car cost $35k - $40k

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