Low Battery-Metal Prices Slow EVs

[RickMachE]

Follow the link below to view the article.

Low Battery-Metal Prices Slow EVs

https://wallstreetjournal-ny.newsmemory.com/?publink=0fdd18371_134adf6

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[ChehRob]

For some time I have tried to figures out just how much lithium per person is needed in the US and throughout the world. Lithium is likely to be about 90% recycled so a fixed amount seems reasonable. I would include not only consumer uses but utility and industrial plus whatever.

I have not been able to find any such projections of how much is needed. So I did my 'back of the envelope', totally unsupported by engineering data, but I am guessing less than 85 pounds in the US. Least developed countries likely 10-15 pounds.

I very much would like a more informed estimate. The usefulness of such a figure is that it lends itself to long term planning.

 

[ARK]

Batteries cost too much it’s a problem, batteries cost too little it’s a problem

 

[RickMachE]

For some time I have tried to figures out just how much lithium per person is needed in the US and throughout the world. Lithium is likely to be about 90% recycled so a fixed amount seems reasonable. I would include not only consumer uses but utility and industrial plus whatever.

I have not been able to find any such projections of how much is needed. So I did my 'back of the envelope', totally unsupported by engineering data, but I am guessing less than 85 pounds in the US. Least developed countries likely 10-15 pounds.

I very much would like a more informed estimate. The usefulness of such a figure is that it lends itself to long term planning.

How so? Planning on filling a barrel with lithium?

 

[ChehRob]

No - I am thinking of the lithium in my EV car to be, lithium my electric utility will have in storage batteries, the lithium the trucking and RR industries will use transporting goods. I think that the total of all these various and more uses is best expressed in a per person amount. i.e. Switzerland will use far less than the US, but likely the per pound per person will be similar.

This all over measurement because it includes everything will be less affected by year to year variations in particular sectors. It also will inform industry and government about how much will be needed in the next year and in ten years.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Oh my God, lithium mining is now the new oil exploration .

 

[Ghost Ryder]

chicken vs. Egg. Did slow EV sales cause crash in Mineral prices? Or did high battery cost, lead to low ev demand, leading to crash of mineral prices. Hmm.....

 

[GreaseMonkey]

What the highly informed "journalists" left out is that lithium mining companies like Ablemarle had an EBITDA margin of 75% last year. No one deserves that type of margin. 75% margin in a commodity industry is a fluke due a supercycle that no one with a brain would expect to continue. Industrial companies do great at 10-15% margin, most survive on 5-10% (like Ford, for example).

It's a bullshit argument by the WSJ. They should do better.

 

[RickMachE]

No - I am thinking of the lithium in my EV car to be, lithium my electric utility will have in storage batteries, the lithium the trucking and RR industries will use transporting goods. I think that the total of all these various and more uses is best expressed in a per person amount. i.e. Switzerland will use far less than the US, but likely the per pound per person will be similar.

This all over measurement because it includes everything will be less affected by year to year variations in particular sectors. It also will inform industry and government about how much will be needed in the next year and in ten years.

Still not getting it.

So the number is 38 pounds. So what? What are YOU going to do with that knowledge?

 

[ChehRob]

The article you quoted talks about not starting lithium mining and refining. How are we going to analyze whether that will create serious shortages or surpluses in the future without a metric? Perhaps you can come up with a better metric than how much lithium will be needed in the next ten years on a per person basis. I doubt it. I am suspecting that at a certain point there will be enough lithium in circulation we will only need to replace the little that cannot be recycled.

As an example, China has used far more steel and concrete per person than the US on a per capita basis. That is neither good nor bad. The US has most of its infrastructure built, most steel is recycled, and concrete mostly to maintenance of existing infrastructure. We do not need to raise mining and refining capacity. Just replace what gets lost and can't be recycled.

 

[RickMachE]

The article you quoted talks about not starting lithium mining and refining. How are we going to analyze whether that will create serious shortages or surpluses in the future without a metric? Perhaps you can come up with a better metric than how much lithium will be needed in the next ten years on a per person basis. I doubt it. I am suspecting that at a certain point there will be enough lithium in circulation we will only need to replace the little that cannot be recycled.

As an example, China has used far more steel and concrete per person than the US on a per capita basis. That is neither good nor bad. The US has most of its infrastructure built, most steel is recycled, and concrete mostly to maintenance of existing infrastructure. We do not need to raise mining and refining capacity. Just replace what gets lost and can't be recycled.

We're going in circles.

You said you want a more informed estimate, that you have been trying to figure it out. I asked what YOU are going to do with that knowledge, and you keep on talking about the industry.

The industry isn't looking for you to figure out a number. You're not buying mining stock, or a mining company, or sitting on a government taskforce. So, at the end of the day, you figuring out it's 37 pounds per person accomplishes nothing but giving you a number that you can't do anything with. If that interests you, great. Have at it.

I'm going to try and figure out how many homebrews I can drink tomorrow without impacting my appetite too much, and which of them goes best with turkey. I'm thinking 3, spread throughout the day.

 

[ChehRob]

Of course we don't need to know about supply and demand. (sarcasm) This is my final comment on this issue.

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