Mid-February for FE?

[dbsb3233]

That is not true. FEs are the very first to be produced. Those should be out by Nov 1st week.

"out" meaning built, yes. But not shipped from the plant until OKTB.

Nov 1st week is likely too soon for FEs to be all built. Demos are mixed in there too. But hopefully the FEs will mostly all get built by late Nov OKTB.

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[SD_Solar]

One thing to consider is the number of vehicles in this run until finished with the NA First Editions is a quite small number for a production line.

Only about 2,400 or so FCTP / Demos and if the NA split of the 3,000 First Edition is the 40% about 1,200 FE’s, this should only take a few weeks.

I am also optimistic that Ford is giving a worst case scenario with the OKTB and it will be moved up when perfect car after perfect car comes off the line.

Still think I’ll be driving mine by the end of Nov.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

"out" meaning built, yes. But not shipped from the plant until OKTB.

Nov 1st week is likely too soon for FEs to be all built. Demos are mixed in there too. But hopefully the FEs will mostly all get built by late Nov OKTB.

Between FCTP cars and FE’s they have 5 to 6 thousand cars to build. That’s going to take awhile to get through even with some of those already under way.

Honestly though, at this point in the process I have the patience of my cat. None.

 

[dbsb3233]

Between FCTP cars and FE’s they have 5 to 6 thousand cars to build. That’s going to take awhile to get through even with some of those already under way.

Honestly though, at this point in the process I have the patience of my cat. None.

Still seems a bit unclear whether the units built before OKTB are worldwide or just NA. If just NA (FEs+demos), the total might be closer to 3500-4000.

But even that could be a little tight to get in all before OKTB, depending on how quickly production pace ramps up. Be very curious to hear production pace fo the next few weeks. I don't know if we're talking 20 this week or 200 or 1200?

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Still seems a bit unclear whether the units built before OKTB are worldwide or just NA. If just NA (FEs+demos), the total might be closer to 3500-4000.

But even that could be a little tight to get in all before OKTB, depending on how quickly production pace ramps up. Be very curious to hear production pace fo the next few weeks. I don't know if we're talking 20 this week or 200 or 1200?

Yeah, I was just using a 2,000 FCTP and a 3,000 FE number. I'm confident that most FE's not needing delivery to McMurdo Station will get delivered prior to New Years along with a smattering of other vehicles.

 

[dbsb3233]

McMurdo Station

I can just imagine how much range loss there is at those temps. ?

 

[DBC]

Replace "production" with "OKTB given", and he's got that basically right. Production has already started. But they're expected to pile up on the lots at the plant until OK To Buy is approved late Nov.

Production of FE or production of all models? My guess is there is a delay after the first round of assemblies in order to check for issues. This is not so much sampling some as it is looking at all in order to get a baseline. After that is completed and any necessary modifications to the production line are made, then we're at OKTB and production starts in earnest. No? In which case OKTB and starting production of all ordered cars is essentially the same.

I wouldn't expect all FEs, mush less all ordered vehicles, to be included in the batch before OKTB.

 

[agoldman]

Still seems a bit unclear whether the units built before OKTB are worldwide or just NA. If just NA (FEs+demos), the total might be closer to 3500-4000.

But even that could be a little tight to get in all before OKTB, depending on how quickly production pace ramps up. Be very curious to hear production pace fo the next few weeks. I don't know if we're talking 20 this week or 200 or 1200?

There was a document someone posted last month that said:
Even more surprisingly, we see that production is slated to start early in October. 3,200 units are expecting to make their way off the production line during the month, and then an additional 4,000 units being produced in November.

and Chasing Carol wrote:

Discussion Starter • #83 • 27 d ago
Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

 

[timbop]

Production of FE or production of all models? My guess is there is a delay after the first round of assemblies in order to check for issues. This is not so much sampling some as it is looking at all in order to get a baseline. After that is completed and any necessary modifications to the production line are made, then we're at OKTB and production starts in earnest. No? In which case OKTB and starting production of all ordered cars is essentially the same.

I wouldn't expect all FEs, mush less all ordered vehicles, to be included in the batch before OKTB.

you need to read @trutolife27's posts in this thread - he explains how it works. Essentially due to timing of steps, they will interleave FE's, FCTP, and even non-FE customer cars in order to balance the timing of each station/step in the assembly. Last saturday the first customer car (FE) came off the line. All the cars go onto the lot for shipping, and will be shipped out AFTER OKTB in order of FCTP, FE, everything else.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

One thing to consider is the number of vehicles in this run until finished with the NA First Editions is a quite small number for a production line.

Only about 2,400 or so FCTP / Demos and if the NA split of the 3,000 First Edition is the 40% about 1,200 FE’s, this should only take a few weeks.

I am also optimistic that Ford is giving a worst case scenario with the OKTB and it will be moved up when perfect car after perfect car comes off the line.

Still think I’ll be driving mine by the end of Nov.

I think you are a bit to optimistic there.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

you need to read @trutolife27's posts in this thread - he explains how it works.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-40571

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

Honestly though, at this point in the process I have the patience of my cat. None.

Well, meee-yowww! That's a carry take!

Wait this is when you start pushing me to the exit!?!

 

[MailGuy]

All this talk of FCTP before customer gives me pause due to something that was said when I was in the showroom. Salesperson said they wouldn't have a demo MME until early February. The ordering of FCTP before customer is not a surprise. But if this dealer is that late in the queue for a demo, I sincerely hope this isn't driven by some regional prioritization decision. You can't swing a cat without hitting some variant of a Tesla in this state. It's disgusting really. If Ford (or the dealer) holds the order back to prioritize other regions, ceding the local market is non-existent, that will be a huge disappointment to say the least. Noteworthy that the salesperson was all to happy to talk about the new Bronco and felt that was the "hot" car and had an order book miles long.

I know that Ford is trying to de-emphasize the dealer experience, and information may be biased at best. But the fact remains, I don't get my car unless it flows through a dealer's hands. I was a bit taken back when my reservation had to be converted to an order through the dealer in the first place. My total experience has been through Ford.com and the dealer not knowing me from Adam, nor my interest in the car.

Fingers crossed it lands before 12/31/20 (or sooner). After that it's $7500 less valuable to me, this year at least.

 

[rabergnc]

Ah - makes sense. Thanks -

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Dealers know far less about the MME and all its aspects than the folks on this forum. Unless your dealer was very late ordering an FCTP car, it will arrive long before February.

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