Mid-February for FE?

[timbop]

All this talk of FCTP before customer gives me pause due to something that was said when I was in the showroom. Salesperson said they wouldn't have a demo MME until early February. The ordering of FCTP before customer is not a surprise. But if this dealer is that late in the queue for a demo, I sincerely hope this isn't driven by some regional prioritization decision. You can't swing a cat without hitting some variant of a Tesla in this state. It's disgusting really. If Ford (or the dealer) holds the order back to prioritize other regions, ceding the local market is non-existent, that will be a huge disappointment to say the least. Noteworthy that the salesperson was all to happy to talk about the new Bronco and felt that was the "hot" car and had an order book miles long.

I know that Ford is trying to de-emphasize the dealer experience, and information may be biased at best. But the fact remains, I don't get my car unless it flows through a dealer's hands. I was a bit taken back when my reservation had to be converted to an order through the dealer in the first place. My total experience has been through Ford.com and the dealer not knowing me from Adam, nor my interest in the car.

Fingers crossed it lands before 12/31/20 (or sooner). After that it's $7500 less valuable to me, this year at least.

Your dealer doesn't have the faintest clue of what he's talking about. Almost none of them do. whose fault it is doesn't matter; I would trust the info we're getting from @trutolife27 and @hybrid2bev and ignore your dealer.

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[kdryden99]

I find it funny that at my dealer, one of the biggest in Canada, he told me demo end november and that there's a good chance my car would be sometime in January. So my sales guy is pretty informed compared to some of the ones mentioned here.

 

[ChasingCoral]

There was a document someone posted last month that said:
Even more surprisingly, we see that production is slated to start early in October. 3,200 units are expecting to make their way off the production line during the month, and then an additional 4,000 units being produced in November.

and Chasing Carol wrote:

Discussion Starter • #83 • 27 d ago
Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

I think my v6 guesstimate is still running fairly true. Remember we learned that of the three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Option 2 is off the table. IIRC @trutolife27 confirmed they won't ship until OKTB. We can hope for Option 1 but Option 3 is far more likely. Our big hope for 2020 deliveries of Premium customer units is that shipping is much faster than 4 weeks.

 

[Jimrpa]

The latter. They pull random vehicles off the lot as samples to check out. Once ok'd, they're all good to go.

Does that mean that there’s an OKTB for every lot full of cars? In other words, build cars until the lot is almost full, then do the sample process. Assuming that process passes, then all vehicles on the lot are OKTB and shipped? What happens if the sample process ... (gulp) ... fails? Do all the cars on the lot fail? Does production stop? Will I not get my Mustang Mach E Premium eAWD ER?

 

[ChasingCoral]

Does that mean that there’s an OKTB for every lot full of cars? In other words, build cars until the lot is almost full, then do the sample process. Assuming that process passes, then all vehicles on the lot are OKTB and shipped? What happens if the sample process ... (gulp) ... fails? Do all the cars on the lot fail? Does production stop? Will I not get my Mustang Mach E Premium eAWD ER?

OKTB is a one time declaration. However, you can expect ongoing QC checks.

 

[kdryden99]

Does that mean that there’s an OKTB for every lot full of cars? In other words, build cars until the lot is almost full, then do the sample process. Assuming that process passes, then all vehicles on the lot are OKTB and shipped? What happens if the sample process ... (gulp) ... fails? Do all the cars on the lot fail? Does production stop? Will I not get my Mustang Mach E Premium eAWD ER?

Most likely all cars will go through corrective inspection and then sampling is done again. It only makes sense to prevent what happened with the Polestar

 

[dbsb3233]

Does that mean that there’s an OKTB for every lot full of cars? In other words, build cars until the lot is almost full, then do the sample process. Assuming that process passes, then all vehicles on the lot are OKTB and shipped? What happens if the sample process ... (gulp) ... fails? Do all the cars on the lot fail? Does production stop? Will I not get my Mustang Mach E Premium eAWD ER?

This is just from what I've picked up from bits and pieces here, but I think it just applies to new models (or maybe major changes too). Sounds like it's a combo of govt approval and company QC to avoid recalls.

If there's serious problems, they'll delay delivery. But I assume they're checking throughout, so there's time to fix things.

 

[dbsb3233]

Most likely all cars will go through corrective inspection and then sampling is done again. It only makes sense to prevent what happened with the Polestar

And the latest Ford Explorer.

 

[dbsb3233]

I may be wrong, but it just feels like the MME has gone through an unprecedented amount of testing, since it's such a radical departure from previous vehicles for them. So I expect little to be needed.

Plus OTA can be relied on for certain fixes.

 

[DaveRuns]

All this talk of FCTP before customer gives me pause due to something that was said when I was in the showroom. Salesperson said they wouldn't have a demo MME until early February. The ordering of FCTP before customer is not a surprise. But if this dealer is that late in the queue for a demo, I sincerely hope this isn't driven by some regional prioritization decision. You can't swing a cat without hitting some variant of a Tesla in this state. It's disgusting really. If Ford (or the dealer) holds the order back to prioritize other regions, ceding the local market is non-existent, that will be a huge disappointment to say the least. Noteworthy that the salesperson was all to happy to talk about the new Bronco and felt that was the "hot" car and had an order book miles long.

I know that Ford is trying to de-emphasize the dealer experience, and information may be biased at best. But the fact remains, I don't get my car unless it flows through a dealer's hands. I was a bit taken back when my reservation had to be converted to an order through the dealer in the first place. My total experience has been through Ford.com and the dealer not knowing me from Adam, nor my interest in the car.

Fingers crossed it lands before 12/31/20 (or sooner). After that it's $7500 less valuable to me, this year at least.

My dealer is in Northern VA....back when he was talking to me (August), he told me he would have a demo car in November.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I may be wrong, but it just feels like the MME has gone through an unprecedented amount of testing, since it's such a radical departure from previous vehicles for them. So I expect little to be needed.

Plus OTA can be relied on for certain fixes.

?

From your mouth to Ford's ears.

 

[kdryden99]

I may be wrong, but it just feels like the MME has gone through an unprecedented amount of testing, since it's such a radical departure from previous vehicles for them. So I expect little to be needed.

Plus OTA can be relied on for certain fixes.

Its why im putting my money on the MME over any EV ford or any other brand releases. (ford v ferrari)

 

[MailGuy]

I think my v6 guesstimate is still running fairly true. Remember we learned that of the three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Option 2 is off the table. IIRC @trutolife27 confirmed they won't ship until OKTB. We can hope for Option 1 but Option 3 is far more likely. Our big hope for 2020 deliveries of Premium customer units is that shipping is much faster than 4 weeks.

If an Electric Mini can travel from Southampton England to Seattle in 4 1/2 weeks while half the west coast is on fire (CA port of entry), I would certainly hope a car can get from south of the border to just shy of the Canadian border in four weeks. But your point is taken.

 

[RonTCat]

Does that mean that there’s an OKTB for every lot full of cars? In other words, build cars until the lot is almost full, then do the sample process. Assuming that process passes, then all vehicles on the lot are OKTB and shipped? What happens if the sample process ... (gulp) ... fails? Do all the cars on the lot fail? Does production stop? Will I not get my Mustang Mach E Premium eAWD ER?

A vehicle is born with a list of features (heated steering wheel, woo!) and performance (0-60mph in 3.5 seconds) targets. Engineering works to hit those targets, along with the manufacturing plant (body panels fit with a margin of 3mm, or bumpers shall not fall off). Once both Engineering and Manufacturing reach that target, OKTB is achieved.

It is possible some targets are not achieved at Job 1, but there is a clear path to the target (we have "more better" heated steering wheels on the way!). The sensible path is to build, park, then retrofit (or OTA) to target, and release vehicles for sale. OKTB is achieved when this process is completed, i.e. all targets have been met.

The regulatory (government approval) processes are all on a parallel path to these events. For instance, range testing must be completed. Range testing doesn't HAVE to be completed at Job#1, but if it is not, any of Ford's claims of range are a risk, since they must be eventually backed by test results, or the company faces some sort of corrective actions, i.e. fines, restatement of range, etc.

Same goes for the things like weld verification. I am not claiming to be an expert here, but that is more of a compliance requirement. When you crash a vehicle, you are committing to certain parts of the design relevant to crash performance, like the number of spot welds in the body. You certify your crash performance, say, with a Mach-E prototype with 5000 spot welds. If your Assembly Plant fouls up and does 4500, that's a problem. So the Plant has to demonstrate it is doing 5000 welds. The 5000 right welds, in the right place, you get the drift. Trust but verify, lol. You aren't going to release vehicles with 4500 welds, because you will again face corrective actions like above, and more importantly, the customer may be getting a vehicle not as safe as advertised. That's a non-starter.

Stopping production is usually the nuclear option. Just ask Tesla (and the Explorer team, ouch). You have literally thousands and thousands of parts coming from every corner of the planet to build a vehicle. It is EXTREMELY difficult to shut that process off, and even harder to turn it back on.

 

[DBC]

you need to read @trutolife27's posts in this thread - he explains how it works. Essentially due to timing of steps, they will interleave FE's, FCTP, and even non-FE customer cars in order to balance the timing of each station/step in the assembly. Last saturday the first customer car (FE) came off the line. All the cars go onto the lot for shipping, and will be shipped out AFTER OKTB in order of FCTP, FE, everything else.

Well OKTB needs to occur before MP2. If MP2 is scheduled to start late October then MP1 and the OKTB review needs to be completed by then. Having various models come down the line during MP1 is really a necessity not an issue since QC wouldn't only want a single flavor of one model even if the production issues didn't exist. In this regard, FEs are simply Premium AWD with Extended Range Batteries. There are seven variations (2 Select, 1 CA Route 1, and 4 Premiums), and FCTPs could be any of them (it's a category not a model).

My guess is that FCTPs will be part of MP1.

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