Really Great Farley interview on EVs

[rreddy3]

For me, the biggest takeaway from the interview is Jim saying they are betting the company on the skunkworks low cost EV efforts. He said "looks like they're going to be successful" and the target is a $30,000 EV in 30 months.

We do YouTube videos, so we also did one on this. A lot of it is just me rehashing what Jim said but I tried to provide some context for some that aren't familiar with Ford's EV plans.

Good video Patrick. I watched the interview before seeing your vlog. You did a good job capturing the essence of what Farley spoke about. Well done.

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[mkhuffman]

Yes. I am.

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813474

> When a passenger car and a light truck hit head-on in a fatal traffic crash
in 2021, an occupant was 3.1 times more frequently killed in the
passenger car than in the light truck.

They are literally killing people and somehow its okay.

Inanimate objects don't kill people.

Big vehicles are not only OK, they are awesome. And it is what many people want. If I want it, I should be able to buy it. At least as long as I am free. I guess some people don't believe in freedom. I do.

 

[Sikkun]

Do not insult ie do not call all ice as "gas guzzlers"

Everyone calls them gas guzzles when gas prices double and manufacturers are putting out things like an H1 Hummer.

 

[Krom2040]

Big Jim is finally talking the way he should have been for some time. The reason may be political, I don't know. Don't care.
You want more Americans to drive BEVs. Get ALL politics and politicians out of it.
No mater your political beliefs or how passionate you are about them remember this, half of America disagrees and is just as passionate.
If politicians or entertainer says you should drive an BEV, you just lost half your sales. Because half of America don't listen to that SOB and will do just the opposite.
Do not mandate, do not lie, do not spread misinformation nor exaggerate. Do not insult ie do not call all ice as "gas guzzlers" they are not, and to ice drivers that is an insult.
You are not going to change anyone's mind with insults, put downs, and name calling anymore than they are going to change yours.

This isn’t a realistic stance to take. The government has an important role to play in building out and incentivizing the charging network. It’s a huge shift - the gasoline supply chain has over a hundred-year head start, and there’s no good way to make that transition happen without very substantial government intervention in the process. The federal subsidies have also been extremely valuable in helping EV companies get a foothold.

Public policy doesn’t happen without politics. Democrats of course have spearheaded that, and in their typical fashion, Republicans have proceeded to define themselves in opposition to Democrats. There’s no possible way to keep politics out of the picture in our current contentious political environment.

 

[Krom2040]

Actually market forces are much stronger than Government. Historically, there are thousands of products and numerous industries that have folded due to competitive forces in the marketplace.

Gasoline stations having a 100 year head start has nothing to do with it. If EV were a better product to ICE, the market would adjust and quite rapidly.

It’s clear that you haven’t given this topic much thought.

 

[Otto klub]

This isn’t a realistic stance to take. The government has an important role to play in building out and incentivizing the charging network. It’s a huge shift - the gasoline supply chain has over a hundred-year head start, and there’s no good way to make that transition happen without very substantial government intervention in the process. The federal subsidies have also been extremely valuable in helping EV companies get a foothold.

Public policy doesn’t happen without politics. Democrats of course have spearheaded that, and in their typical fashion, Republicans have proceeded to define themselves in opposition to Democrats. There’s no possible way to keep politics out of the picture in our current contentious political environment.

Oh, it is realistic.
Had, if, when BEVs sold/sell in better numbers free enterprise would/will start putting up chargers everywhere. They want the money it would make. No incentives needed. Sales numbers are not yet big enough to risk investment.

 

[jbooth]

So, 800 pounds difference between a MME AWD premium and a Suburban 4x4 LT. In a head-on collision, I guess the people in the passenger car will just be a little less dead...

Nice whataboutism sir.

I know looking at the data is probably too much to ask, and while the mass certainly plays a part, there's a lot more that's problems with height. The MME isn't really a SUV (I mean, heck, it has less ground clearance than our Honda Fit) in that it has bumpers at the same height as our Honda Fit. Compare that to pickups and other overcompensating vehicles that I can see fully under from either Fit or MME.

Height matching doesn't super help in head-ons. However, it does help in a T-bone which is 1.7x more dangerous to the t-boned truck but 12x more deadly to a t-boned car.

Ref: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457512004265 (a little dated)

It doesn't matter if it is 4000 or 5000 pounds when a car hits a pedestrian or bike. The extra mass is basically irrelevant. What matters is the height and slope. Higher hood = more deaths. Blunt nose = more deaths. MME is bad on the latter, but the nose isn't that high. At least compared to a suburban where the hood is the height of the MME roof.

Ref: https://www.kidsandcars.org/news/po...-vehicle-front-ends-to-more-pedestrian-deaths

And yes, I think the government should prioritize people's lives over emotional support vehicles. Go find a therapist and a station wagon.

 

[Krom2040]

Oh, it is realistic.
Had, if, when BEVs sold/sell in better numbers free enterprise would/will start putting up chargers everywhere. They want the money it would make. No incentives needed. Sales numbers are not yet big enough to risk investment.

I would love to live in a world so simple.

Time after time after time, the biggest issue that consumers report about EV's is the shortcomings of the fast charging network. Not enough locations, unreliable locations. This goes hand in hand with range anxiety. When the alternative is a vehicle whose fueling network is ALREADY IN PLACE for a hundred years, it's a serious dilemma for consumers - they may have a strong preference for the perks of EV's (a great ride, charging at home, low refueling costs), but still be concerned that they're limiting themselves from certain kinds of experiences.

On the flip side of the coin, there's little incentive for private investment in fast chargers if they feel there's no critical mass of EV adoption to warrant it. Installing chargers involves working with power companies, dealing with local ordinances, understanding the technical details of the supply from the power network, etc. etc. We can see in areas with strong charger availability and reliability, EV sales surge.

And this is to say nothing about the absurd magnitude of subsidies to the oil industry in terms of not just direct subsidies and also many financial affordances to the supply chain. In the United States, we ship a lot of our oil from across the world because the type of oil we need isn't what we can easily extract and refine domestically.

I'm honestly just shocked that I have to point this stuff out. It's a clear example of a chicken-and-egg problem. I don't know if there's a clearer example anywhere. If there's a charger network, then people have confidence in their ability to replace an ICE vehicle. If there's not, then it remains an extremely limited niche choice. We can witness with our own eyeballs that government support has enabled EV's to go mainstream.

 

[dbsb3233]

Time after time after time, the biggest issue that consumers report about EV's is the shortcomings of the fast charging network. Not enough locations, unreliable locations. This goes hand in hand with range anxiety. When the alternative is a vehicle whose fueling network is ALREADY IN PLACE for a hundred years, it's a serious dilemma for consumers - they may have a strong preference for the perks of EV's (a great ride, charging at home, low refueling costs), but still be concerned that they're limiting themselves from certain kinds of experiences.

That's certainly ONE of the inhibitors to faster EV adoption, but the #1 inhibitor is still high cost to purchase, IMO. The batteries are still just too damn expensive. Especially in the US, where consumers prefer bigger vehicles with good range. That requires a big (expensive) battery pack, which usually makes the EV cost like $15k more than a comparable-size ICE.

 

[Otto klub]

I would love to live in a world so simple.

Time after time after time, the biggest issue that consumers report about EV's is the shortcomings of the fast charging network. Not enough locations, unreliable locations. This goes hand in hand with range anxiety. When the alternative is a vehicle whose fueling network is ALREADY IN PLACE for a hundred years, it's a serious dilemma for consumers - they may have a strong preference for the perks of EV's (a great ride, charging at home, low refueling costs), but still be concerned that they're limiting themselves from certain kinds of experiences.

On the flip side of the coin, there's little incentive for private investment in fast chargers if they feel there's no critical mass of EV adoption to warrant it. Installing chargers involves working with power companies, dealing with local ordinances, understanding the technical details of the supply from the power network, etc. etc. We can see in areas with strong charger availability and reliability, EV sales surge.

And this is to say nothing about the absurd magnitude of subsidies to the oil industry in terms of not just direct subsidies and also many financial affordances to the supply chain. In the United States, we ship a lot of our oil from across the world because the type of oil we need isn't what we can easily extract and refine domestically.

I'm honestly just shocked that I have to point this stuff out. It's a clear example of a chicken-and-egg problem. I don't know if there's a clearer example anywhere. If there's a charger network, then people have confidence in their ability to replace an ICE vehicle. If there's not, then it remains an extremely limited niche choice. We can witness with our own eyeballs that government support has enabled EV's to go mainstream.

Refineries do buy crude from different wells and mix it. As of 2019 when I retired, they bought very little to none from overseas. They knew that most Canadian and nearly all offshore crude was easy on equipment just like middle eastern crude. So if they are buying overseas crude now it would be because someone shut down the Keystone pipeline.

 

[Krom2040]

That's certainly ONE of the inhibitors to faster EV adoption, but the #1 inhibitor is still high cost to purchase, IMO. The batteries are still just too damn expensive. Especially in the US, where consumers prefer bigger vehicles with good range. That requires a big (expensive) battery pack, which usually makes the EV cost like $15k more than a comparable-size ICE.

I don't disagree that they're still a good bit more expensive (though I'd argue that for people who have the luxury of slow charging they make a lot of that back over the lifetime of the vehicle). I don't know if they're $15k more expensive, but certainly can for large vehicles that are already quite expensive.

But here's what I would add to that: the charging network and battery size go hand-in-hand. If chargers are plentiful and fast, then people might be totally fine to have an EV with a range of 200 miles if they know they can just pull into a charger and fill up in 10 minutes and be on their way. If chargers are less frequent, then they might feel that they need something that has upwards of 300 miles of range.

In any case, there's an economy of scale that we're seeing materialize quickly. As demand for EV's accelerates across the globe, there's serious investment in lithium mining that's driving down per-kg prices of it, and there's also a lot of focus in ramping up battery production as well as a huge amount of research initiatives into improving battery technology. China is arguably driving this more than Western players, but one way or batteries are getting cheaper and better as the market expands.

 

[dbsb3233]

I don't disagree that they're still a good bit more expensive (though I'd argue that for people who have the luxury of slow charging they make a lot of that back over the lifetime of the vehicle). I don't know if they're $15k more expensive, but certainly can for large vehicles that are already quite expensive.

But here's what I would add to that: the charging network and battery size go hand-in-hand. If chargers are plentiful and fast, then people might be totally fine to have an EV with a range of 200 miles if they know they can just pull into a charger and fill up in 10 minutes and be on their way. If chargers are less frequent, then they might feel that they need something that has upwards of 300 miles of range.

In any case, there's an economy of scale that we're seeing materialize quickly. As demand for EV's accelerates across the globe, there's serious investment in lithium mining that's driving down per-kg prices of it, and there's also a lot of focus in ramping up battery production as well as a huge amount of research initiatives into improving battery technology. China is arguably driving this more than Western players, but one way or batteries are getting cheaper and better as the market expands.

Battery prices are still dropping but the rapid drop of 5-10 years ago is over. It's slowed down to just a gradual drop (in 2022 actually took a jump). If/when there's a quantum leap in tech again, that may produce a big price drop, but as it stands now it doesn't look like they'll be coming seriously down anytime soon.

All that to say that this transition will take a lot longer than some hoped. And will include a mix of ICE, hybrid, and BEV for many years to come.

 

[Snakebitten]

I'm from a rather large family (8 siblings, and tons of kids/grandkids) and I am the ONLY family member with an EV.
But I'm also the one that would be least surprising to do so. I'm the de-facto family technology nerd, so to speak. And am regarded as the most apolitical, by far.

While they are only one group of people that haven't/aren't buying in to EV's, I think they represent, well enough, the kinds of obstacles that widespread EV adoption faces.

They are VERY curious, and ask a fair number of questions. But they are the kind of questions that reveal what politics and anti-EV sentiments have planted in their heads.

In my opinion, them seeing or noticing more DCFC'ers popping up on the roads that they frequent, has zero influence on them. And they now all KNOW that I (their brother, uncle, pawpaw) charges at home inexpensively and without angst.

In my opinion, and with a fair amount of irony, I think the whole anti-ICE rhetoric has done EV's little favor.

 

[Krom2040]

Battery prices are still dropping but the rapid drop of 5-10 years ago is over. It's slowed down to just a gradual drop (in 2022 actually took a jump). If/when there's a quantum leap in tech again, that may produce a big price drop, but as it stands now it doesn't look like they'll be coming seriously down anytime soon.

All that to say that this transition will take a lot longer than some hoped. And will include a mix of ICE, hybrid, and BEV for many years to come.

Totally fair analysis, but I'm not sure it those numbers fully capture the current state of the industry. As I understand it, we did experience problems in the lithium supply chain as a result of COVID (and probably spiking demand) but it sounds like a lot of that is resolved now and we should hopefully see continued improvement. Additionally, there are domestic battery production initiatives that are still in the process of ramping up - that's a process that can take years.

 

[dbsb3233]

Totally fair analysis, but I'm not sure it those numbers fully capture the current state of the industry. As I understand it, we did experience problems in the lithium supply chain as a result of COVID (and probably spiking demand) but it sounds like a lot of that is resolved now and we should hopefully see continued improvement. Additionally, there are domestic battery production initiatives that are still in the process of ramping up - that's a process that can take years.

I agree that there probably will be a quantum leap improvement at some point. And that EVs are "the future". My point is more just about when, and what's realistic. There's a lot of valid reasons why BEVs still only have ~8% market share in the US, and why ICE & hybrid will likely remain the bulk of the market for a lot of years to come.

Whether that's 5 years or 10 years or 15 years is anyone's guess, of course. Mostly comes down to battery costs. All the rest is doable. But as you said, it takes years, even if there were a big tech breakthrough tomorrow. Ford, for instance, still doesn't even have their first in-house battery plant open.

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