Production runs & line output guesstimates

[SnBGC]

Customers or Ford executives? We know about that first Rapid Red First Edition most likely going to someone in Dearborn. Are there others we know of?

No confirmation yet. We might know more as the month progresses. There is talk of a very low VIN charity car that could be the same as the Rapid Red unit referenced above. Very much a rumor at this point though because my source isn't able to discuss much. I would expect such a vehicle to be a Grabber Blue GT anyway but a Rapid Red First Edition would probably be the next best thing.

I am told some dealers were allocated more than one FCTP vehicle for a variety of reasons. Priority code 20-80 would need to comply with the program requirements. Priority code 99 would be treated the same as dealer stock and thus could be sold immediately.
So I guess it depends on how many dealerships were allocated more than one FCTP units and what priority code they chose for extra units.

It appears the dealers were initially told their demos could not be FE models but that changed the week before Mach Drop and those with extra allocations could change them to FE if desired.

This appears to coincide with other bits of info we have gathered so far to date as best as I can tell. ??

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[Plutoman15]

I encourage you to look for the answers already posted. We've responded to this question repeatedly on the Forum. Look under reservation numbers.

I think I have read most along the way over the last 6 months but I do not recall that we have ever aligned total actual orders to reservation numbers. The fact that there are higher numbers than the 50k limit (much higher), and that was before the GT looks like it will be a 2022 model. I was just wondering if anything new has been learned because up to this point it has been speculation. I am thinking nothing new has been learned. Also realize date stamp is more important then number. The real question is how much number skipping is in the system. Also don't know how many cancelled orders there were.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I think I have read most along the way over the last 6 months but I do not recall that we have ever aligned total actual orders to reservation numbers. The fact that there are higher numbers than the 50k limit (much higher), and that was before the GT looks like it will be a 2022 model. I was just wondering if anything new has been learned because up to this point it has been speculation. I am thinking nothing new has been learned. Also realize date stamp is more important then number. The real question is how much number skipping is in the system. Also don't know how many cancelled orders there were.

Sigh.
I searched on "reservation numbers". The first page included this:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/allocation-spot-and-scheduled-for-production.1696/post-44662
If you want more details, try it yourself. This question has been answered repeatedly.

 

[SnBGC]

I think I have read most along the way over the last 6 months but I do not recall that we have ever aligned total actual orders to reservation numbers. The fact that there are higher numbers than the 50k limit (much higher), and that was before the GT looks like it will be a 2022 model. I was just wondering if anything new has been learned because up to this point it has been speculation. I am thinking nothing new has been learned. Also realize date stamp is more important then number. The real question is how much number skipping is in the system. Also don't know how many cancelled orders there were.

We probably wont ever be able to figure out the reservation sequencing correlation. The data pool on this forum is a very small percentage of the actual production volume.

The online ordering system was intended to line buyers up for the dealers to service. Sort of like getting in line at the sports stadium entry gates. They all have a ticket but some are for general admission, some are for Club and Suite level etc.
It's up to the dealers to submit the orders and follow the process as instructed. The plant then likely sequenced the orders by time/date stamp for the batch of orders accepted at that time. Those that are late to the game are skipped over. Depending on how late they are might mean they are pretty far back because a bunch of other customers got in line before then.

Ford has always said the reservation was a place in line. Once the gates open though....that place in line might be compromised if the dealer or end customer are slow to act as necessary.

 

[ChasingCoral]

We probably wont ever be able to figure out the reservation sequencing correlation. The data pool on this forum is a very small percentage of the actual production volume.

The online ordering system was intended to line buyers up for the dealers to service. Sort of like getting in line at the sports stadium entry gates. They all have a ticket but some are for general admission, some are for Club and Suite level etc.
It's up to the dealers to submit the orders and follow the process as instructed. The plant then likely sequenced the orders by time/date stamp for the batch of orders accepted at that time. Those that are late to the game are skipped over. Depending on how late they are might mean they are pretty far back because a bunch of other customers got in line before then.

Ford has always said the reservation was a place in line. Once the gates open though....that place in line might be compromised if the dealer or end customer are slow to act as necessary.

More importantly, Ford has consistently said that reservation time stamp, not number, is your initial place in line.

 

[SnBGC]

More importantly, Ford has consistently said that reservation time stamp, not number, is your initial place in line.

Yep. I mean. That is really about the very best Ford could do. As much as we would like for Ford to drive this bus all the way home.....it just isnt possible right now. Too many stakeholders involved.

 

[SnBGC]

More importantly, Ford has consistently said that reservation time stamp, not number, is your initial place in line.

Another way for people to look at it is....
Their reservation number is a way for Ford to track the customer's time stamp. Other than that....the number doesnt have any other value or meaning. The time stamp is their actual place in line.

 

[Plutoman15]

Sigh.
I searched on "reservation numbers". The first page included this:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/allocation-spot-and-scheduled-for-production.1696/post-44662
If you want more details, try it yourself. This question has been answered repeatedly.

I can sigh too. You are not understanding the question. I understand everything in the post you suggested. What I am asking is any official numbers on total orders for the 2021 model. For instance, if there are exactly 50,000 real orders but 100,000 accepted reservations then that tells us that reservation/order number is really #25,000 in line. I believe @trutolife27 put out some info of total orders (60,000 I believe) but I see a reservation number of 77k before the order numbers totally changed formats when actual orders began the end of June. I am sure many more orders have been placed between the end of June and a few weeks ago when @trutolife27 put out order numbers. I realize without Ford giving us the exact order info, it is impossible to know exactly but this whole thread is built on modelling what we know with what we speculate.

So just using what I have above someone with a 30,000 reservation number might actually be 19,480 in line because of the space between reservation numbers and before taking GT orders out and the other manipulations you so nicely have performed.
50,000/77,000= .649 times 30,000 (anyones reservation #) equals 19,480 in line.

Make sense?

Edit: I see some more comments above since I was writing. Seems we have always assumed the reservation numbers were at least relative to your place in line since they mostly aligned with reservation date but knowing it is not exact. That has been understood for a while. Only speculating with the numbers we know.

 

[ChasingCoral]

What I am asking is any official numbers on total orders for the 2021 model.

For that there is a simple answer: no.

We never have heard official numbers of how many reservations there were, how many were converted to orders, how many orders exist, or how many First Editions were reserved, ordered, or will be produced.

 

[SnBGC]

I remember Ford saying they thought they secured enough batteries for about 50,000 units for first year's production run. I assumed that was for model year 2021. Other than that fairly vague number....the only other reliable figure came from trutolife27 in that Ford thinks they have about 80,000 orders in hand. I believe that figure assumes some reasonable conversion rate for EU/UK reservation holders.

 

[VegStang]

Yep, shut up and take my money. And to think a few months ago I was like, I dunno honey, that's a lot of money for a car...

I keep telling myself to stop checking the forum habitually, mostly because the small tidbits of info/miss-info takes me on a rollercoaster of emotions, but I can't because I'm just waiting for an influx of "GOT MY VIN/BUILD DATE" posts so I can call my dealer to hopefully get mine.

 

[DaveQ]

More importantly, Ford has consistently said that reservation time stamp, not number, is your initial place in line.

Then we should add reservation date to the spreadsheet and remove order date, because it's meaningless. The only thing order date is good for is that it confirms the submitter placed an order. New folks to this site are just trying to figure out where they stand. Those on here every 5 minutes are the only ones able to keep up with all of the conversations. Please give them a break.

 

[KAustin]

Then we should add reservation date to the spreadsheet and remove order date, because it's meaningless. The only thing order date is good for is that it confirms the submitter placed an order. New folks to this site are just trying to figure out where they stand. Those on here every 5 minutes are the only ones able to keep up with all of the conversations. Please give them a break.

The order date is fine because it at least lets is know if the order was placed or not. We know that there were several reservation holders that are waiting to convert until the see or test drive the car.

 

[ChasingCoral]

The order date is fine because it at least lets is know if the order was placed or not. We know that there were several reservation holders that are waiting to convert until the see or test drive the car.

It also is valuable in understanding if the order was placed before scheduling cutoffs. An order placed in June and an order placed in December will be treated very differently in scheduling.

 

[Dudeduke]

It also is valuable in understanding if the order was placed before scheduling cutoffs. An order placed in June and an order placed in December will be treated very differently in scheduling.

This brings me to another question on what would happen for people like me who reservation/order date is the same.

For example lets assume that I was the last person to reserve it and my number on the queue is 100,000 in reservation. Now there is no reservation, but directly orders on any new reservation.

Also assume that 40000 prior reservations have been converted to orders. So effectively my order is 40001 in the order queue.

As per some posts, i am seeing that Ford has some limitation for the amount of Batteries they can get for MY2021. It seems to be in around 50K range. So they cannot deliver more that number of vehicle for this model year.

Now lets say 20000 out of 60000 people who are ahead of me in the reservation list convert theirs to the order in late December after test drives. That would bring the total order count to be more than Ford can deliver.

In the current scenario, my fully Accepted order will be bumped out and would not be delivered for model year 2021 for the people who are placing their final order more than 2 months after my order. They should have some prioritizing for people who are ready to place an order without even seeing the car and have the delivery in the order of "Ordered Queue" rather than "Reservation Queue".

Or Ford should ask reservation people convert theirs to order within a smaller time frame before accepting any more new orders if they have a Battery constraint.

All these would irrelevant if Ford can get more batteries and increase production. The best case for all of us

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