Ford hits the brakes on $12 billion in EV spending in KY

[Mach1E]

Problem is that we, the people, ran out of that sweet, sweet Covid cash. The same cash that caused the huge spike in inflation. Except when the cash ran out, the prices did not return to pre Covid levels. Now we’re stuck with higher prices but no extra cash to spend.
There is no way that we can sustain a avg 50k new car price. Higher for evs. It’s great for striking ford workers to get big pay raises but it was foolish to assume that that there would be no consequences.

To be fair there’s still around $3 trillion in extra Covid cash still in bank accounts (google US household checkable deposits).

People still have the money, there just aren’t as many rushing to buy $100k pickup trucks that don’t do “truck things” well as anticipated.

Way too many manufacturers are rushing to the EV market at the same time. It’s still a niche market.

Publicly traded companies can only lose billions of dollars for so long on projects before the board and shareholders pull the plug.

And before we blame “car sales as a whole,” US total vehicle sales are up significantly over 2022. https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox...s the market enters the,end of the first half.

Sponsored

 

[Maquis]

It’s great for striking ford workers to get big pay raises but it was foolish to assume that that there would be no consequences.

I don’t know of anyone who believes there won’t be consequences.

 

[azerik]

It is an agenda. They have to stop building vehicles in order to be able to replace all the junction boxes that are going bad and the ones that are on the roads.Just saying.

 

[CompilerBreak]

~5+% auto loan interest rates and now having to wait for "2025+ year models" for the nacs plugs integrated I think is having a large effect as well on folks rethinking a current EV.

As to the UAW deal impact on prices, as a long time Ford shareholder, I can guarantee they don't have to pass along all that extra cost to the consumer, but they will

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/business/ford-uaw-contract.html

 

[Jimrpa]

It is an agenda. They have to stop building vehicles in order to be able to replace all the junction boxes that are going bad and the ones that are on the roads.Just saying.

They have to be able to do multiple things at the same time. One is an understood (although costly) warranty repair on a portion of the existing fleet. Another is the manufacture of new products, and the third is the design and development of future new products. Separate issues, dealt with by separate groups with only small areas of overlap.

 

[Jimrpa]

~5+% auto loan interest rates and now having to wait for "2025+ year models" for the nacs plugs integrated I think is having a large effect as well on folks rethinking a current EV.

As to the UAW deal impact on prices, as a long time Ford shareholder, I can guarantee they don't have to pass along all that extra cost to the consumer, but they will

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/business/ford-uaw-contract.html

Or they can take out cost by decontenting products. For example, 2-way power seats. Fixed headrests. No auto up/down power window switches. No dual-height load floor. No LED accent lamps. No SiriusXM receiver. Lower performance motors. Smaller battery packs. I’ll bet you I could take $10K of cost out of the MME without breaking a sweat. Just by judicious decontenting. Sure, each thing I listed sounds like it’s only pennies, but those pennies add up to serious dollars!

 

[CompilerBreak]

Or they can take out cost by decontenting products. For example, 2-way power seats. Fixed headrests. No auto up/down power window switches. No dual-height load floor. No LED accent lamps. No SiriusXM receiver. Lower performance motors. Smaller battery packs. I’ll bet you I could take $10K of cost out of the MME without breaking a sweat. Just by judicious decontenting. Sure, each thing I listed sounds like it’s only pennies, but those pennies add up to serious dollars!

I mean, they've done a bit of this already haven't they? No kick to open tailgate, no more painted roofs.

They'll be fine, they just got too used to having 2+ years of production fully reserved, that and since these things are more expensive, more pain to sit on a dealer lot.

I'm looking forward to some more normalcy in the used market, was originally planning to pick up a Maverick but now I'm thinking there's going to be some steals on the short range Lightnings in a couple years.

 

[Shayne]

I think the demand is not only due to the cost but because of what was provided to the public. With the defects that have come to light with the design of EV's and how many time they require service spending more for it to sit in a garage most of the time can not be that appealing. If everyone here was raving about the design and how it functioned dependability the recommendations along with demand would be far greater. It would be an easier sale but dealers having to fix these none stop are not tell their costumers this is the car for you. Maybe they should take a step back and get their design right and try again? Appears Tesla will dominate for the immediate future.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Couple this with the LFP battery factory in Michigan which is on hold. In a way, this may not be as bad as it sounds. A slow down will allow Ford to continue to design / develop new EVs while the next generation of batteries are coming online. Hopefully, manufacturing costs can be lowered. Ford and other OEMs will have to continue their EV plans; albeit, a little slower, in order to compete with Tesla.

What I'm more concern about is that the UAW contract will add $800-$900 per vehicle!!!! This is for current gas vehicles!!! $800-$900 added to a product that most consumers can not afford now.

I agree with a lot of this. Growing pains. New drivetrain tech; new vehicle models. It's all expensive and complicated. Ford will work it out. I've been of the mind that we (the BEV world) are in a bit of a strange place over the next 14 months or so. The 2025 model year will have a lot going on with native NACS on so many OEM BEVs. A lot of factories ,vehicle and battery, are coming on line too.

I still think Ford is having fewer issues than GM but that might just be perception. The incentives on the Mach-E are pretty decent right now too. I'll be presenting Sheeba at an EV event next Saturday being hosted by the local utility. I will be very interested in hearing what attendants have to say now about price, range and, yes, my car.

 

[Mirak]

A lot of people have decided against EVs (for now?), and I think it will be hard to get them back with "it's better now!" messages in 2-3 years.

Will it be appreciably “better now” in 2-3 years? Everybody keeps focusing on the public fast charging infrastructure - and maybe that will be much better in a few years. I have my doubts, but it’s a low bar. It can’t get much worse.

The bigger problem EV enthusiasts keep overlooking is that there are some really serious limitations with current battery tech. Current batteries are too heavy, too expensive, and too slow to charge for mainstream adoption. This results in $50,000+ vehicles that take 30+ minutes to recharge on the highway to get around 200-250 miles of range depending on the weather.

That just doesn’t fit most folks’ needs or desires. The industry and government are trying to force a product that isn’t ready yet.

And I should add, this is not a matter of incremental improvement. These issues aren’t gonna 10-20% better with each new model year. We’ve basically maxed out what we can squeeze from current battery tech. We need another jump, like the jump from NiMH to Li-ion over 10 years ago.

 

[Mach1E]

Will it be appreciably “better now” in 2-3 years? Everybody keeps focusing on the public fast charging infrastructure - and maybe that will be much better in a few years. I have my doubts, but it’s a low bar. It can’t get much worse.

The bigger problem EV enthusiasts keep overlooking is that there are some really serious limitations with current battery tech. Current batteries are too heavy, too expensive, and too slow to charge for mainstream adoption. This results in $50,000+ vehicles that take 30+ minutes to recharge on the highway to get around 200-250 miles of range depending on the weather.

That just doesn’t fit most folks’ needs or desires. The industry and government are trying to force a product that isn’t ready yet.

Ding ding ding.

Just look at the questions we answer for people who don’t own a BEV.

“How much range does it get?”

“How long does it take to charge?”

“What did it cost?”


Never once has anyone who never owned a BEV asked me “how reliable is the charging infrastructure?”

Even if they did ask me, my answer would be the same “never used it, never plan to, this is a great around town vehicle.”

Next month I’m driving 4 hours away to a 2 day work meeting. Carpooling with 3 other co-workers.

Zero percent chance I could convince the other 3 to take my car.

Zero.

That should tell you everything you need to know about long trips in a BEV and what people prefer.

I would love to hear anyone try to give me an argument to convince any of them otherwise. ?

 

[Shayne]

Will it be appreciably “better now” in 2-3 years? Everybody keeps focusing on the public fast charging infrastructure - and maybe that will be much better in a few years. I have my doubts, but it’s a low bar. It can’t get much worse.

The bigger problem EV enthusiasts keep overlooking is that there are some really serious limitations with current battery tech. Current batteries are too heavy, too expensive, and too slow to charge for mainstream adoption. This results in $50,000+ vehicles that take 30+ minutes to recharge on the highway to get around 200-250 miles of range depending on the weather.

That just doesn’t fit most folks’ needs or desires. The industry and government are trying to force a product that isn’t ready yet.

Not for trips for everyone but for a commuter it is a no brainer. Plug in at home at night and more than enough for the next day. Just needs to be a bit cheaper (or government help) and bit more dependable. The sell is for the other 350 days a year not the 14 days you are on holidays. A lot do not do over 250 miles for their commute each day. Two commuter two ev and rent for 14 days would save a bit on gas. As gas goes up and up this will make even more sense to some.

 

[Mach1E]

Not for trips for everyone but for a commuter it is a no brainer. Plug in at home at night and more than enough for the next day. Just needs to be a bit cheaper (or government help) and bit more dependable. The sell is for the other 350 days a year not the 14 days you are on holidays. A lot do not do over 250 miles for their commute each day. Two commuter two ev and rent for 14 days would save a bit on gas. As gas goes up and up this will make even more sense to some.

I think you’re putting too much value on money and not enough value on time.

Never met anyone who would want to rent a car to drive somewhere from home a couple weeks a year.

Maybe those people exist. But it can’t be that many.

Getting and returning a rental car is something I do at a destination after flying somewhere out of need, not want. The experience usually sucks.

Been on this forum a while, and I don’t remember hearing any stories of people here who regularly rent a car for road trips. Let alone enough to tip the scales to convince people to buy a Mach E.

 

[Mirak]

Not for trips for everyone but for a commuter it is a no brainer. Plug in at home at night and more than enough for the next day. Just needs to be a bit cheaper (or government help) and bit more dependable. The sell is for the other 350 days a year not the 14 days you are on holidays. A lot do not do over 250 miles for their commute each day. Two commuter two ev and rent for 14 days would save a bit on gas. As gas goes up and up this will make even more sense to some.

People buy vehicles to satisfy all reasonable, even if relatively rare, use cases.

And, ironically, those folks who never take road trips are most likely the same folks who have the least access to home charging.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Supply and demand is tricky to figure out when there is no historical reference point. So Ford, GM, M-B, BMW etc all had to guess what demand for their cars would be. Problem was the end of the pandemic made it look like demand was very healthy. It was, but once we all got our cars there were no people left in line behind us.

So they adjust.

I feel like buyers who were on the fence decided to stay there after seeing the realities of the "non-Tesla" EV experience over the last two years. What I'm wondering is what it will take to get them off the fence next year or the year after? We here know the answer to that, but will they get the message when that happens?

A lot of people have decided against EVs (for now?), and I think it will be hard to get them back with "it's better now!" messages in 2-3 years.

Right. Messaging. It might be as simple as word of mouth. I was essentially the first person in the neighborhood to be using a battery powered mower. All my neighbors would ask me about it, watch me use it time and time again. Now, they all have them, even my electrician/contractor neighbor across the street. I'm the first and only EV on my street. I know at least one of the couples is strongly considering a BEV for their next car (very much like the Mach-E).

Out of the 17 people in my office, three of us have BEV (Mach-E, Tesla MYPE and M3). Two of my other coworkers just bought new cars; Toyota RAV4 and Honda Civic. Both of these "kids" are under 30. My older coworkers are curious about electric cars so the seeds are planted. I think something like the Volvo EX30 could be a real game changer.

On the other hand, Hyundai is going full steam ahead with its EV plans. I feel like Ford will lose more market share by cutting back.

Volvo and Kia as well.

Sponsored