Refreshed Tesla Model S and Model X

[silverelan]

If that's Elon time, then you really mean 7 - 10 years. The new Roadstar (which was the original target for that "new battery tech" 500+ miles range) was pushed back *yet again* another year. The Semi (again promising same tech) has been repeatedly pushed back. If you drink the Koolaid, then Elon claims it is because of battery capacity (and, for the record, I have no doubt this is an issue). But, if you follow the numbers (e.g., both Thunderf00t and Dave at EEVblog have dissected the 4680 cell tech) you will start to suspect the battery tech is likely not where it is being hinted at being.

The 2021 Mach-E AWD ER has the approximate range and charging characteristics of a 2017 Tesla Model S 90D.

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[TheSteelRider]

The 2021 Mach-E AWD ER has the approximate range and charging characteristics of a 2017 Tesla Model S 90D.

While I understand your point, I was more pointing out that the range was just "more batteries". Of course "more batteries" means "more range". The plaid+ is getting it's range bump from a significantly larger, and significantly more expensive battery, not some magic sauce.

As an example, consider what range the Mach E would get if it had a 130KWh battery? Now, with that answer, does it still seem so far behind in tech? By tech, I specifically mean battery and motor tech. The Mach E again has considerably worse Cd than a Model S. So, if you want to be more apples-to-apples, do the comparison again assuming for the sake of argument the Mach E had the same Cd as a Model S, and a 130 KWh battery. They'll be virtually identical in range, meaning the "tech" is the same, e.g., no magical solid state battery, no magical gnomes in the motors making them orders of magnitude better. That was more my point.

(and, again, because I want to be sure it is clear, I do understand YOUR point and agree with it ...)

 

[silverelan]

While I understand your point, I was more pointing out that the range was just "more batteries". Of course "more batteries" means "more range". The plaid+ is getting it's range bump from a significantly larger, and significantly more expensive battery, not some magic sauce.

As an example, consider what range the Mach E would get if it had a 130KWh battery? Now, with that answer, does it still seem so far behind in tech? By tech, I specifically mean battery and motor tech. The Mach E again has considerably worse Cd than a Model S. So, if you want to be more apples-to-apples, do the comparison again assuming for the sake of argument the Mach E had the same Cd as a Model S, and a 130 KWh battery. They'll be virtually identical in range, meaning the "tech" is the same, e.g., no magical solid state battery, no magical gnomes in the motors making them orders of magnitude better. That was more my point.

(and, again, because I want to be sure it is clear, I do understand YOUR point and agree with it ...)

Thanks, appreciate it. I agree with you that with brute force (more kWh) there's more range. If the Model Y LR had 100kWh available, it'd be a monster road tripper. My point was that if Tesla is indeed 4-5 years ahead of Ford, then the evidence supports that based on the 2021 MME having similar range & charging characteristics (peak kW, time to 80%) to a 2017 Model S 90D.

Tesla 90kWh pack

Considering the Tesla was a $100k car back then and Ford can offer it brand new for $55k is a testament to how quickly things move to a more mainstream price point. However, Tesla has moved on and we're now seeing similar range to 2017 but with Tesla offering much quicker charging tech.

Tesla says the new Model S can gain 200 miles (Model Y LR gets 162mi) in 15 mins. Ford says the MME AWD ER can do about 75 miles in 15 minutes.

To be clear, just like with 0-60, charging times aren't the end all be all of EVs but it is another data point to consider.

 

[TheSteelRider]

Considering the Tesla was a $100k car back then and Ford can offer it brand new for $55k is a testament to how quickly things move to a more mainstream price point. However, Tesla has moved on and we're now seeing similar range to 2017 but with Tesla offering much quicker charging tech.

Oh yes, excellent points. Totally on board there. Great point about price parity, and yes Tesla is to be imitated with charging technology. So, you are saying that in 5 years I can buy a $30k BEV that charges 10% to 80% in 15 minutes, right What a world we live in, great time to be alive! In the last 25 years, it has gone from the EV1 behind both a cult-classic, and the laughing stock of the automotive industry, to literally every automaker attempting to abandon ICE as as quickly as possible.

 

[trutolife27]

Oh yes, excellent points. Totally on board there. Great point about price parity, and yes Tesla is to be imitated with charging technology. So, you are saying that in 5 years I can buy a $30k BEV that charges 10% to 80% in 15 minutes, right What a world we live in, great time to be alive! In the last 25 years, it has gone from the EV1 behind both a cult-classic, and the laughing stock of the automotive industry, to literally every automaker attempting to abandon ICE as as quickly as possible.

Used Bev prices will come down a lot. The tech is going to move so fast that even tesla's new battery tech cells will be old tech by 2023.

 

[silverelan]

So, you are saying that in 5 years I can buy a $30k BEV that charges 10% to 80% in 15 minutes, right What a world we live in, great time to be alive!

Car technology is advancing in dog years. It's crazy.

 

[ab13]

While I understand your point, I was more pointing out that the range was just "more batteries". Of course "more batteries" means "more range". The plaid+ is getting it's range bump from a significantly larger, and significantly more expensive battery, not some magic sauce.

As an example, consider what range the Mach E would get if it had a 130KWh battery? Now, with that answer, does it still seem so far behind in tech? By tech, I specifically mean battery and motor tech. The Mach E again has considerably worse Cd than a Model S. So, if you want to be more apples-to-apples, do the comparison again assuming for the sake of argument the Mach E had the same Cd as a Model S, and a 130 KWh battery. They'll be virtually identical in range, meaning the "tech" is the same, e.g., no magical solid state battery, no magical gnomes in the motors making them orders of magnitude better. That was more my point.

(and, again, because I want to be sure it is clear, I do understand YOUR point and agree with it ...)

The Mach E has a higher Cd than a Tesla Y, which I believe accounts for most of the range/efficiency difference. I read Ford targeted below 0.3, and Engineering Explained I believe said 0.285. I don't know if those are the numbers, but it seems it is probably 20% greater than the Model Y (0.23).

 

[silverelan]

The Mach E has a higher Cd than a Tesla Y, which I believe accounts for most of the range/efficiency difference. I read Ford targeted below 0.3, and Engineering Explained I believe said 0.285. I don't know if those are the numbers, but it seems it is probably 20% greater than the Model Y (0.23).

Car & Driver said it takes 31% more power to move the Mach-E AWD ER at 75mph than the Model Y.

 

[ab13]

Car & Driver said it takes 31% more power to move the Mach-E AWD ER at 75mph than the Model Y.

That's about expected, the "estimated" CD difference of almost 24%, and most of the rest from the heavier weight.

The original "Escape EV" design shape was more sloped from the hood, likely with lower drag.

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