Analysis company for the oil and gas industry states EV Market has collapsed

[D’Roc]

https://www.ajot.com/news/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt

Sponsored

 

[Logal727]

https://www.ajot.com/news/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt

Tesla just said they sold 4 million vehicles globally for the year so far, targeting 7 million, I think it’s ok

 

[D’Roc]

Every time I see a doomsday headline like this, I Google who said it and 99.5% of the time, probably more, it’s someone related to the Petroleum industry.
Sooooooo predictable they are.

 

[EELinneman]

I am reminded of a speech that Winston Churchill gave. Here is a clip:

"On top of all this came the great French catastrophe. The French Army collapsed, and the French nation was dashed into utter and, as it has so far proved, irretrievable confusion. The French Government had at their own suggestion solemnly bound themselves with us not to make a separate peace. It was their duty and it was also their interest to go to North Africa, where they would have been at the head of the French Empire. In Africa, with our aid, they would have had overwhelming sea power. They would have had the recognition of the United States, and the use of all the gold they had lodged beyond the seas. If they had done this Italy might have been driven out of the war before the end of 1940, and France would have held her place as a nation in the counsels of the Allies and at the conference table of the victors. But their generals misled them. When I warned them that Britain would fight on alone whatever they did, their generals told their Prime Minister and his divided Cabinet, "In three weeks England will have her neck wrung like a chicken." Some chicken; some neck. "

So, the petroleum industry says that the BEV industry is collapsing. Sounds like French Generals to me.

 

[A-A-Ron]

https://www.ajot.com/news/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt

If they wish for something hard enough, maybe Santa will bring it to them?

 

[mkhuffman]

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

 

[Hammered]

I didn't bother with the link as there's a glaring issue --- the auto market itself has collapsed.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

I didn't bother with the link as there's a glaring issue --- the auto market itself has collapsed.

Correct. High prices (ICEVs and BEVs), high interest rates. The younger generations being less interested in car ownership. Perhaps continued improvement in public transportation. More people working from home. All of this adds up to bad news for the auto sector. But like @mkhuffman said, only time will tell. Let's circle back at the end of our loans and see where things are

 

[Mach1E]

I didn't bother with the link as there's a glaring issue --- the auto market itself has collapsed.

“Collapsed?”

You too could write new headlines.

News clickbait headline: “stock market plummets!” Reality: stock market drops 1%

Reality:https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-february-2023-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/

February New-Vehicle Sales Expected to Increase Year Over Year, Thanks to Improving Inventory, Fleet Sales Gains

 

[Hammered]

“Collapsed?”

You too could write new headlines.

News clickbait headline: “stock market plummets!” Reality: stock market drops 1%

Reality:https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-february-2023-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/

February New-Vehicle Sales Expected to Increase Year Over Year, Thanks to Improving Inventory, Fleet Sales Gains

Quite a few sectors have lost ~70% of their value. Dealers have used cars they're taking losses on. When you're a for profit company taking losses on something you're supposed to be profiting on, that's a collapse, and the real fun has just begun. It hasn't been just a bad year, this is the new normal for 4 years or longer. It's all down hill from here. Cheap capital is gone for a decade. There's no level of hopium that will change this. I wish I too could live in a bubble. Go take a look at a few outlets that cover what's going on in china right now. Companies are liquidating for 5 cents on the dollar.

 

[CurtW]

The graph tells it all. We have only consistent increases looking at YOY by month (see colored slope lines I added to the graph). The huge drop on "Global EV Share" is at the tail end of our data. This is suspect considering global EV sales did not follow that trend which implies an unusual spike in ICE sales. This may be "Convenient Sampling" as this practice is sometimes referred to by statisticians.

It is difficult to draw strong conclusions about data at either end of a study. For this graph, I'd put more trust in a 10% trim by period, or about April 21 through Oct 22 (Outlined below in bright green.) Even then, I'd only toutthe YOY by month trends. No benefit, for example, comparing Dec to Jan.

All said, I think the numbers are fine, nothing special, but only future months will provide certainty about the Jan / Feb 2023 trend.

 

[timbop]

If they wish for something hard enough, maybe Santa will bring it to them?

Oh, it is far more than wishes. In the late 80's the Koch brothers slammed the Oklahoma Republican Senator who wanted to do something about climate change with thousands of faked outraged calls. You might notice that denying there's a problem has become the position of a significant number of Senators.

Hammering home a lie has a way of making it accepted as true by a significant populace. Once that happens, things change.

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

Correct on both counts. There are too many compromises right now for BEVs to truly go mainstream in the US, but to say that they are going away is also patently false. Those compromises will get better, and eventually the mainstream will recognize that BEVs are better cars. China sees BEV's as a way to take over the auto industry, so clearly BEVs are here to stay - it's just a question of how many, where, and made by whom. The US auto industry cannot afford to let China take the BEV market.

 

[mkhuffman]

There are too many compromises right now for BEVs to truly go mainstream in the US, but to say that they are going away is also patently false. Those compromises will get better, and eventually the mainstream will recognize that BEVs are better cars. China sees BEV's as a way to take over the auto industry, so clearly BEVs are here to stay - it's just a question of how many, where, and made by whom. The US auto industry cannot afford to let China take the BEV market.

Definitely agree with this. IMO BEVs are better than ICE in every way but three: public refueling, range, and entry cost. But all of those are going to improve over time, guaranteed.

 

[Mach1E]

Quite a few sectors have lost ~70% of their value. Dealers have used cars they're taking losses on. When you're a for profit company taking losses on something you're supposed to be profiting on, that's a collapse, and the real fun has just begun. It hasn't been just a bad year, this is the new normal for 4 years or longer. It's all down hill from here. Cheap capital is gone for a decade. There's no level of hopium that will change this. I wish I too could live in a bubble. Go take a look at a few outlets that cover what's going on in china right now. Companies are liquidating for 5 cents on the dollar.

Dealers have made obscenely high record profits for the last 3 years in a row.

They’re still doing extremely well. Profits may slow down, but total sales numbers are still rising.

I don’t call this a “collapse.” If anything it’s just “going back to normal,” where they sell more cars each year and make a reasonable profit.

This of course is talking about US car sales. I don’t know nor care about car sales in China.

It is kinda hard to tell where you’re seeing the “collapse” as you’re jumping from “dealers” to “manufacturers” to “China.” All very different parts of the auto industry.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Sweet, fire sale on all Rivians and Cadillac Lyriqs!! Woot!

Sponsored