Audi to Stop Developing ICE Vehicles

[Maquis]

It's not as far away as you might think. Battery energy density has tripled since 2010. It's on the same curve as things like Moore's Law.

A triple in 10 years does not even approach Moore's law - which is to double every year.

That said, I am confident that science and technology will get us there (I don't know when or even the future slope of the curve), and our consumer purchases of BEVs will further encourage (and help to finance) the progress.

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[sockmeister]

Ok -- in applications where weight is at a premium, like in an airplane, yes, the energy density is an (evolving) challenge. But just so you know, there already are electric airplanes. And there have been electric boat companies for around 100 years, and these days they're making the same improvements that cars are with the same technology. Weight is not as much of a concern with boats, with the right design and ballast.

Also, a boat doesn't have exactly the same energy requirements as a car. The battery needs are different.

But, anyway, this has digressed... we're talking about *cars* here. Not boats or airplanes.
For cars, the time is right now, and the technology has reached the point where it's both practical and accessible, and yes, it's ready to replace the internal combustion engine in that application.

 

[sockmeister]

A triple in 10 years does not even approach Moore's law - which is to double every year.

That said, I am confident that science and technology will get us there (I don't know when or even the future slope of the curve), and our consumer purchases of BEVs will further encourage (and help to finance) the progress.

The point was that energy density is showing an exponential improvement, but you're right, it's not at the same rate as moore's law, specifically.

 

[Plutoman15]

Electric does not come close to answering the needs of farm tractors and trucks, airplanes, ships (nuclear?), construction (dozers etc.)

Best case next 50 years is a mix of electric and fossils fuels in my oppinion.

 

[kikibop]

by the way your math here somehow overlooks some key drivetrain components. A 300-hp ICE engine can weigh 800+ lbs. An equivalent electric motor weighs about 70 lbs. Not to mention the level of mechanical complexity in a modern gas engine with turbos, VVT, cylinder deactivation, all-wheel-drive and more, in contrast to the simplicity of electric drive. There are many pieces to the puzzle.

 

[SyNRG]

Electric does not come close to answering the needs of farm tractors and trucks, airplanes, ships (nuclear?), construction (dozers etc.)

While true, but it's starting slowly:
https://www.volvoce.com/global/en/our-offer/emobility/

(Note - this is only a one-off by PON Equipment but it's a start)
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/26234...-is-the-tesla-of-heavy-construction-equipment

 

[sockmeister]

Energy density of batteries will never reach that of gasoline, just like gasoline will never reach the energy density of uranium. But what WILL change is that BEV efficiency will get progressively better and better.

Yes, but even more than that, I'd say the current biggest problem is "Burning fossil fuels is negatively affecting our planet"

Luckily, batteries have two things going for them:
1. There is a wide range of materials that batteries can be made out of. Tesla is exploring changing out Cobalt in their next generation of batteries for the low-end model.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21451670/tesla-cobalt-free-cathodes-mining-battery-nickel-ev-cost
2. Lithium-ion batteries are recyclable. There are at least two companies in the US ramping up production to meet this coming market.

That said, you're right in that current cobalt mining has some pretty drastic effects on local ecosystems. (but so do oil spills).
In an ideal world, we wouldn't have any cars at all, but that would be pretty boring.

 

[Maquis]

In an ideal world, we wouldn't have any cars at all, but that would be pretty boring.

Bring on teleportation....."Beam me up, Scotty"...or to the grocery store! ?

 

[dbsb3233]

Mercedes Benz also said this generation of gasoline engines is the last they will develop. They will still build gasoline cars for 20 years or so with the existing engines.

Yep. May not be 20 years but they'll still be making ICE cars for many years.

This announcement only applies to developing new generations of engines. How often does an automaker create a totally new engine anyway? Ford has been using the great little 2.0 Ecoboost for at least a decade, I believe. And there's still a lot of models that use it, and will use it for years.

 

[dbsb3233]

Electric does not come close to answering the needs of farm tractors and trucks, airplanes, ships (nuclear?), construction (dozers etc.)

Best case next 50 years is a mix of electric and fossils fuels in my opinion.

Yep. Announcements like this only mean a gradual shift to batteries over decades, not the elimination of ICE altogether. It's never an all-or-nothing thing.

But we will see a rising market share of BEV and a shrinking market share of ICE. I think we'll see a lot of PHEV this decade as well. It's a good way to put most miles on battery but still overcome the shortcomings (especially for larger, less aerodynamic vehicles). Until batteries ever get so good with energy density that they exceed needs (like 400 highway miles in a Suburban).

 

[Maquis]

And at the other end of the spectrum:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/39828/bmw-has-no-plans-to-stop-developing-internal-combustion-engines

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